Chicago Cubs: How is Tyler Chatwood having success?

MESA, AZ - FEBRUARY 20: Tyler Chatwood
MESA, AZ - FEBRUARY 20: Tyler Chatwood

Tyler Chatwood’s struggles for the Chicago Cubs with command have been well documented in 2018. But somehow, he’s still getting decent results. How is he doing?

Chicago Cubs pitcher Tyler Chatwood took the mound on Tuesday afternoon against the Los Angeles Dodgers. He allowed five walks in his five innings pitched, but he only allowed one run—a solo shot from Joc Pederson to lead off the game. Chatwood got a no-decision in the 4-3 loss.

It’s a formula Cubs’ fans are getting used to with Chatwood: Lots of walks and relatively few runs. Opponents have been waiting for Chatwood’s command issues to come back to bite him, but somehow they haven’t done that much. What’s going on?

Stranding men on base

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Chatwood entered Tuesday’s game with a career-high WHIP of 1.75 and left with an ERA of just 3.95. Let’s look at some other players WHIPs and ERAs to put that in context.

Chicago White Sox’ Lucas Giolito has a WHIP of 1.64—.11 points lower than Chatwood’s, but Giolito’s ERA is 7.19. Cincinnati Reds’ Homer Bailey has a WHIP of 1.69 and an ERA of 6.68.

The amount of base runners Tyler Chatwood allows suggests he should be allowing more runs than he is.

And it might be that it’s because Chatwood shows up in high leverage situations. On the season, he has a K-BB% of precisely zero, meaning he’s walked exactly as many men as he’s struck out.

But in high leverage situations, that jumps all the way up to 31.6%. In the same high leverage situations, Chatwood leaves 89.3% of runners on base.

Is it sustainable?

Managers would prefer pitchers that don’t give up free bases. Those pitchers have to throw more pitches to get fewer outs and typically have worse results.

But Tyler Chatwood is the Cubs’ fifth starter, and his ERA is under four. That’s the most you can ask for your fifth man: He gives them a chance to win.

It is a worrisome formula, however. Any given start that 1.75 WHIP could bite Chatwood and he could get blown up for seven runs in a couple of innings—as has happened in 2018. But for now Chatwood is working around his issues as well as anyone, and as long as he is, his role with the Cubs is safe.

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Tyler Chatwood is a peculiar case of getting away with a lot of baserunners Only time will tell if that’s a sustainable method.