How much would Manny Machado cost the Arizona Diamondbacks?
In a recent piece for The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal called Machado “the best position-player rental EVER.” He suggests that the Orioles will look for the type of massive return that Aroldis Chapman demanded two years ago, but the reality may be something closer to the recent returns yielded from JD Martinez and Yu Darvish.
Naturally, there is plenty of interest in Machado, and the Orioles will no doubt have multiple offers to choose from. Let’s analyze the returns in these three recent high-profile rental player deals and consider whether the D-backs should pay a comparable price for Machado.
Aroldis Chapman 2016: Yankees to the Cubs
This is the best case scenario for the Orioles. If Rosenthal is right and Machado is the best deadline rental EVER, then Baltimore should expect the best return EVER. For that to be the case, they’d have to beat the Yankees’ 2016 haul.
What they got: Decent big league reliever Adam Warren, #1 Cub’s prospect Gleyber Torres, and prospects Billy McKinney and Rashad Crawford. Warren has been good. Torres is tearing it up in big leagues hitting .287 with 13 homers at the ripe age of 21. McKinney and Crawford are still working their way through the minors.
Would the equivalent deal be worth it for the D-backs? No. The D-backs have pitching depth and could likely afford to part with an average bullpen piece like Jorge De La Rosa especially with a move to the ‘pen by Zach Godley and/or Matt Koch.
The problem is the prospects. The D-backs lack a clear standout like Torres and to match him would likely have to part with multiple top prospects.
The current consensus says the D-backs top two guys are 22-year-old 1B Pavin Smith (ranked #91 prospect in all of baseball by MLB.com) and 23-year-old pitcher Jon Duplantier (#73 according to MLB.com). Losing either of these two would be tough, sacrificing both of them would be excessive.