Should the Arizona Diamondbacks pay the price for Manny Machado?
Reports have surfaced that the Arizona Diamondbacks are in talks with Baltimore for Manny Machado. With an NL worst team batting average and a real chance at playoff contention, it makes sense that the Diamondbacks would chase a bat at the deadline. But what will it take to land Machado? And can the D-backs afford it?
The 2018 season has been anything but consistent for the Arizona Diamondbacks. The team has oscillated between being historically good and historically bad.
After getting off to their best start in franchise history, the D-backs went into a free fall. Their shockingly lousy 8-19 record in May tied April 1998, their first month of existence, for the worst month in franchise history.
Thankfully, the nightmare of May is over, and June has seen another dramatic reversal. The D-backs are 12-5 this month and back atop the NL West. But the mighty Dodgers are surging, just 1.5 games back. The Diamondbacks can’t afford another meltdown.
The Diamondbacks offense was painfully bad in May, and while it has rebounded, it remains a weakness. The team ranks dead last in the NL with a .228 batting average.
They have five position players who get regular playing time who are hitting under .200. As the deadline approaches, the Diamondbacks area of need is clear. Last year, they added JD Martinez – that worked out pretty well.
Is Machado the answer?
Might this year’s JD Martinez be Manny Machado? The Orioles are hopeless 27.5 games out of first place, and with Machado’s contract expiring, they would be foolish to hang on to him. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported today that the two teams are actively discussing a deal.
Sources: #DBacks, #Orioles have been in contact about a possible Manny Machado trade this season. Dialogue remains open between the clubs. This is viewed as due diligence on Arizona’s part as the team’s needs become clear. @MLB @MLBNetwork
But what will Machado cost? And will he be worth it?
How much would Manny Machado cost the Arizona Diamondbacks?
In a recent piece for The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal called Machado “the best position-player rental EVER.” He suggests that the Orioles will look for the type of massive return that Aroldis Chapman demanded two years ago, but the reality may be something closer to the recent returns yielded from JD Martinez and Yu Darvish.
Naturally, there is plenty of interest in Machado, and the Orioles will no doubt have multiple offers to choose from. Let’s analyze the returns in these three recent high-profile rental player deals and consider whether the D-backs should pay a comparable price for Machado.
Aroldis Chapman 2016: Yankees to the Cubs
This is the best case scenario for the Orioles. If Rosenthal is right and Machado is the best deadline rental EVER, then Baltimore should expect the best return EVER. For that to be the case, they’d have to beat the Yankees’ 2016 haul.
What they got: Decent big league reliever Adam Warren, #1 Cub’s prospect Gleyber Torres, and prospects Billy McKinney and Rashad Crawford. Warren has been good. Torres is tearing it up in big leagues hitting .287 with 13 homers at the ripe age of 21. McKinney and Crawford are still working their way through the minors.
Would the equivalent deal be worth it for the D-backs? No. The D-backs have pitching depth and could likely afford to part with an average bullpen piece like Jorge De La Rosa especially with a move to the ‘pen by Zach Godley and/or Matt Koch.
The problem is the prospects. The D-backs lack a clear standout like Torres and to match him would likely have to part with multiple top prospects.
The current consensus says the D-backs top two guys are 22-year-old 1B Pavin Smith (ranked #91 prospect in all of baseball by MLB.com) and 23-year-old pitcher Jon Duplantier (#73 according to MLB.com). Losing either of these two would be tough, sacrificing both of them would be excessive.
JD Martinez 2017: Tigers to Diamondbacks
There is precedence for the D-backs making these kinds of deals.
What they got: Three infield prospects: Dawel Lugo (#4 in the D-backs system at the time), Sergio Alcantara (#15), and the teenaged Jose King. It’s too early to tell what will become of these prospects, but Lugo looks good in AAA. He’s hitting .288 and may see some time on the big league team before the end of the season.
Would the equivalent deal be worth it for the D-backs? Yes. Sure, the D-backs didn’t make it out of the NLDS and Lugo may be an All-Star (probably not but maybe) but JD was great, and the team won an all-time classic in the wild card game that fans will remember for a long time. Plus, outside of Smith and Duplantier, I wouldn’t consider any D-backs prospect off the table for Machado.
Yu Darvish 2017: Rangers to Dodgers
The Dodgers were already dominant when they made this frightening move.
What they got: The Dodgers #4, #17, and #27 prospects: Willie Calhoun, AJ Alexy, and Brendon Davis. The 22-year-old Calhoun has already seen major league action this year with encouraging results.
Would the equivalent deal be worth it for the D-backs? Yes. This return is very similar to what the Tigers got for Martinez. If the Orioles are willing to part with Machado for one top 5 guy and couple fliers, the D-backs should be all over it.
The Diamondbacks have good reason to go for it this year
Patrick Corbin and AJ Pollock are in the last years of their contract and Paul Goldschmidt will be a free agent at the end of 2019. All three players are critical to the team’s success and there is almost no hope that they can retain all of them.
There is already rampant talk that the Yankees have their eyes on Corbin and Pollock and the D-backs have 1/3 of their limited payroll wrapped up in an aging Zack Greinke.
Furthermore, the NL has a lot of good teams but seems to lack a truly great one. The Dodgers, Brewers, Cubs, Braves, and Cardinals are all formidable, but none of them feel unbeatable. There is a realistic path to the World Series.
The Diamondbacks want current third baseman Jake Lamb to be a crucial part of the lineup, but he has struggled, hitting just .209. Manny Machado wants to play SS, but he’s a far better defensive player at third where he’s won two gold gloves.
The Diamondbacks are set at SS and would need Machado to be OK with a switch to third, but he has no power to block any trade the Orioles want to execute.
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To be sure, there is plenty of interest in Machado, and if they want to land him, the Arizona Diamondbacks will need to beat out offers from many other trade-deadline competitors. We know the teams are talking and we know the D-backs desperately need offense.
They have a shot this year, but their window may be closing. If ever there was a season and player to sacrifice prospects for, it’s this season, and it’s Manny Machado.