Phillies: Proof for the naysayers
Before the Phillies’ season began, the faithful had a wide range of expectations for stars, the campaign, and the offseason acquisitions of general manager Matt Klentak; and fans had no shortage of evaluations and alternatives.
Black and white:
For the Philadelphia Phillies, the numerical starting point makes a difference to GMs in their decision-making because they realize some totals can be deceiving. So, if the quantity is the question, are 145 games enough of a sample size for the average fan to find convincing?
IN OTHER WORDS: “There is only one proof of ability — action.” – Marie von Ebner-Eschenbach
In late March, some locals had their doubts about the red pinstripes with only Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta as dependable starters. And they questioned the signing of Carlos Santana, while others expressed concern about every division rival except for the Miami Marlins.
When some looked at 66 wins for 2017 after expecting over 100 losses, they were unable to anticipate more than 65 victories. And the over-.500 Phils’ record last year for their final 73 contests didn’t sway their belief. Additionally, even inking an ace and a slugger to go with Rhys Hoskins wasn’t a mind changer either.
Other fans were slightly more optimistic and imagined 70 triumphs. Of course, those additional wins come with 92 defeats. But investing emotionally in the good guys requires more than finishing ’17 with a 37-36 mark. By mid-July?
On a higher note, those faithful supporters who enjoyed the second half and hadn’t already tuned out 2017 saw a watchable team giving them hope for this summer. Their range had been 80 to 82 victories before Arrieta signed for three years, but they didn’t change their thinking.
However, other locals with Arrieta in the fold upped their expectation to 85 wins and the edge of wild-card contention. In fact, some national baseball publications projected 83 to 87 victories: That high-end number is the expected tally for a wild-card berth.
On the other hand, those fans willing to cast caution to the wind were hoping for 90 triumphs. And although that seems unrealistic, it is closer to reality than 65 wins on the opposite end of the spectrum. Since April, though, have your expectations changed?
Factual considerations:
According to FanGraphs, their current prediction for the Phils is 81-81, but it was previously below .500 at roughly 73 to 76 victories. Moreover, their wild-card forecast went from 5.7 percent to 10.6 percent, and their playoff chances went from 8.1 percent to 14.5 percent.
Competing for the second wild card is an emotional roller coaster, and perhaps, you’ve experienced it lately. Yes, the series against the Colorado Rockies, the Milwaukee Brewers and the St. Louis Cardinals are perfect examples of what’s ahead. Translation: higher highs, lower lows and twice as fast! Remember 2005?
From July 15 to season’s end, the Phillies were 37-36 and are currently 39-33 for a total of 76-69 after 145 decisions. In other words, that projects to an 85-77 record or two games behind an estimated wild-card slot. Prediction: meaningful September baseball again.
WORTH REPEATING: “People normally cut reality into compartments, and so are unable to see the interdependence of all phenomena. To see one in all and all in one is to break through the great barrier which narrows one’s perception of reality.” – Nhat Hanh
The hometown nine’s 39-33 mark projects to 88-74, and they are in the hunt for a one-game ticket to the NLDS. However, many have expressed disappointment with certain players, the bullpen, the offense and the fielding. Is .500 baseball still a pipe dream?
The red pinstripes began the toughest quarter of their schedule at eight games over .500, and so far, they are 15-17 against other postseason hopefuls. Granted, they still have 10 contests against the Washington Nationals and the New York Yankees. But this 42-game test is sink-or-swim, so what shouldn’t you do just yet? Count them out!
Next: Phillies arms waiting in the wings
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