Miami Marlins: Kelvin Herrera trade proof should wait on Kyle Barraclough
The Miami Marlins can afford to wait for the right deal when shopping their best reliever, and the Kelvin Herrera trade just proved they have to.
In the absence of Martin Prado and Brad Zeigler setting the baseball world on fire, hot stove attention for the Miami Marlins has turned to young reliever Kyle Barraclough.
In light of the first significant trade of hot stove season, the Marlins should hold out on dealing him as long as possible.
Kansas City Royals closer Kelvin Herrera was traded to the Washington Nationals Monday afternoon. The return? A trio of prospects, only one of which was Top 10. And we’re talking barely Top 10.
Blake Perkins was the third best outfield prospect in a system backing up an already star-studded MLB outfield. Bottom-line, the Nats gave up very little to grab an established veteran to bolster their bullpen with.
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That kind of return should cool the jets of anyone in the Miami Marlins front office. Barraclough and Herrera have had almost identical seasons. A difference of right around .05 separates their respective ERAs and WHIPs, advantage Kelvin in ERA, advantage Kyle in WHIP. The most obvious difference comes down to saves, where Herrera holds a 14 to 6 edge.
However, that one is really of little consequence. Had Barraclough left spring training with the job, they’d very likely be even. After all, Zeigler had already earned nine saves for the Marlins at the time of his demotion.
Ultimately, the difference comes down to two stats: WAR and walks. In both cases, Herrera holds an edge. The walk difference is extreme, with Barraclough having issued fourteen more free passes. That accounts for the bulk of that 1.5 to 1.1 WAR gap, and it should. Walks are killers, and while Barraclough has absolutely adjusted of late, the track record remains.
And track record is the final decider of which reliever currently holds more value. The only reason Kelvin Herrera likely won’t finish 2018 as a three-time All-Star is this very trade to a team full of All-Stars. Dominant 2015 and 2016 seasons precede a bizarre 2017 where he posted a 4.25 ERA season, but still recorded 26 saves. He’s a proven commodity, already great. Barraclough could be, probably is. Still, he’ll be worth less this season, barring outside help.
The Miami Marlins must either wait for that help, or just wait for Barraclough to continue to build up his resume.
Why Miami Marlins Need To Wait
Firstly, no contenders desperately need a closer. Even Herrera, a successful closer this season, was added as setup depth. That’s a poor market to shop a top reliever in. Secondly, though, there’s the past track record of the kinds of prospects teams can get in top reliever deals. In light of that record, it becomes crystal clear the Miami Marlins need to be patient.
As an example, we need only look back to the 2016 season. That season saw a boatload of MLB Top 100 talent dealt for relief help. For instance, the Chicago Cubs dealt two Top 100 prospects for Aroldis Chapman. Next, the Cleveland Indians moved one for Andrew Miller. Both clubs had to deal two well-regarded Top 10 prospects from their system.
Alternatively, we can go way back in Miami Marlins history. In 2003, the Marlins dealt their best overall prospect for half a year of Ugueth Urbina. That prospect was five-time All-Star Adrian Gonzalez.
Likewise, the Marlins were able to trade 1999 closer Matt Mantei for one of the Arizona Diamondbacks top pitching prospects. That prospect was Brad Penny.
Admittedly, Barraclough is not of the Chapman/Miller ilk yet. But his 2018 numbers are right there with them. The promise is there. Equally as important, he remains immensely affordable. Barraclough can’t be a free-agent until 2022.
In essence, the Miami Marlins have a choice. They can deal away a very cheap player now for…something. Not any different from the many other faces that will change places over the next month. On the other hand, they can wait and see if Barraclough develops into the most valuable commodity on the market in 2019 or 2020.
It seems like an easy decision to me. Here’s hoping the Miami Marlins agree.