NL East: MLB trade deadline primer

Looking ahead to the MLB trade deadline, we preview what each NL East team must accomplish by July 31.

Entering 2018, the NL East appeared to be the weakest division in the senior circuit. The Washington Nationals are a perennial contender, having won the division in each of the previous two seasons. Now under the guidance of Dave Martinez, Joe Maddon‘s right-hand man for the past decade, it was hard to envision anyone other than the Nats winning the division.

The New York Mets appeared to be the Nats’ most significant competitor, but they were far from a sure bet to contend. Injuries have held their talented roster back in recent years, and their aging core would need to be at their best to dethrone the Nats. That is a lot to ask of a team that won just 70 games a year ago.

Other than the Mets, perhaps the two most intriguing teams in the division were the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. Each team had struggled over the last few years but had made progress towards returning to contention.

The Braves and Phillies were not expected to compete for a playoff spot, but could easily finish around .500, giving the Nats and Mets a moderate run for their money.

Then, of course, there are the Miami Marlins. After finishing second in the NL East in 2017, the Marlins switched ownership and direction. Despite fielding what was arguably the best outfield in baseball, the Marlins cleaned house.

Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and Dee Gordon were all traded away, leaving J.T. Realmuto as the final star remaining in Miami. Derek Jeter won quite a bit during his career as a Yankee, but it will be a while before his Marlins contend for a championship.

Now that we are about halfway through June, it is acceptable to take a look at the standings. Teams that got off to a hot start could simmer, but there is no longer a small sample size.

To the surprise of many, the NL East is baseball’s most intriguing division. The surging Braves lead the way, with the Nats just behind them. The Phillies have struggled of late, but still, sit five games above .500 and are within striking distance of first place.

Meanwhile, the Mets and Marlins are well below .500 and appear to be out of contention. Each team has shown promising signs, but neither the Mets nor the Marlins have been able to sustain a high level of play.

Other than the All-Star week, the non-waiver trade deadline is the next major event in the MLB schedule. With the deadline just over a month away, rumors are already running rampant.

Let’s take a look at what each NL East team may do at the deadline, beginning with the current leader, the Atlanta Braves.

Atlanta Braves

Led by a plethora of up-and-coming stars, the Atlanta Braves have been one of baseball’s biggest surprises. They are currently 42-29 and are tied with the Milwaukee Brewers for the best record in the National League. It is evident that the Braves were building something special, but nobody expected them to contend this year.

Seeing as the Braves have remained atop the division into late-June, it is safe to say that they are a legitimate postseason contender. The division should still be the Nats’ to lose, but the Braves could easily earn a Wild Card spot.

The Braves do not have many holes, but they could stand to improve at third base. After the Jose Bautista experiment failed, they turned to Johan Camargo. The 24-year-old has done a decent job but has fallen into a bit of a sophomore slump.

A year after slashing .299/.331/.452 as a rookie, Camargo is hitting just .234 in 52 games. These are respectable numbers for a bottom-of-the-order hitter, but the Braves need more production if they are going to be a force in the postseason.

The two most notable third baseman who could be on the move are Mike Moustakas and Josh Donaldson. The Braves could be suitors for either player, but they would not necessarily be a perfect fit.

Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna get all the press, but Austin Riley is projected to play a prominent role in the Braves’ youth movement as well. The 21-year-old third baseman is raking in Triple-A and could be deemed ready for the majors this season. If the Braves were not in contention, he would almost certainly get a shot in the bigs.

Because the Braves are in a position to play deep into October, they are going to need a veteran presence at the hot corner. Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis are great leaders, but the young guns could use a few more veterans around the clubhouse during the stretch run.

This is why Moustakas or Donaldson would be a nice addition in Atlanta.

Moustakas has a mutual option for 2019, making him the preferred target. Theoretically, the Braves could decline his option and give the job to Riley next year. On the other hand, they could also pick up Moustakas’ option and give Riley an extra year to develop.

Meanwhile, Donaldson is set to become a free agent at the season’s end. He would be a solid rental, but that is likely all he would be. There are also questions surrounding his durability, as he has made two trips to the disabled list this year.

Looking past third base, the Braves could add to their pitching staff. The starting rotation and bullpen could each use some addition depth, but the foundation is solid. There will be plenty of pitching depth available at the deadline, making this an easy fix for Alex Anthopoulos and co.

The Braves were not expected to contend, but they are now in a position to strengthen their case as a playoff-caliber team at the trade deadline.

Washington Nationals

All things considered, the Washington Nationals have gotten off to a solid start under rookie manager Dave Martinez. They have dealt with a plethora of injuries to key players, including Daniel Murphy, Adam Eaton, Ryan Zimmerman, Stephen Strasburg, and Matt Wieters. The Nats may not be leading the NL East, but they are right on the Braves’ tail.

Mike Rizzo has built a solid core, but the Nats do have a few holes.

Perhaps the Nats’ biggest need is behind the dish. Wieters looked much improved from his abysmal debut season in DC prior to injuring his hamstring but still struggled. He has resumed baseball activities and could return in the next few weeks, but he may not be enough.

Pedro Severino has taken over in Wieters’ absence but has struggled at the plate. He is an elite defender with a sub-.200 batting average. If he cannot improve offensively, he has the makings of a backup catcher.

If Wieters and Severino continue to struggle offensively, they could look to acquire a catcher. J.T. Realmuto has been linked to the Nats for a while, but he is an unlikely target.

The Marlins have reportedly asked for Victor Robles or Juan Soto in return, which the Nats have responsibly rejected. If the Marlins were willing to part with Realmuto for a slightly lesser prospect, such as Carter Kieboom, the Nats should consider it.

In addition to Realmuto, Wilson Ramos, Jonathan Lucroy, and A.J. Ellis are all potential fits. Each catcher is set to become a free agent at the season’s end, making them prime trade candidates.

Like the Braves, the Nats could also upgrade their pitching depth. Injuries to Strasburg and Jeremy Hellickson have left the starting rotation well below full strength. While Erick Fedde and Jefry Rodriguez have done a respectable job of filling in, neither pitcher appears ready to join the rotation for good.

If Strasburg and/or Hellickson remain on the disabled list for an extended period or another starter suffers an injury, look for the Nats to shop for a starter.

The Nats did a great job of acquiring Kelvin Herrera before the typical trade season, but they may elect to target one more reliever. Sean Doolittle has established himself as an elite closer, but the rest of the bullpen is littered with question marks.

Ryan Madson and Brandon Kintzler have each had rough patches throughout the year and have lingering concerns. Madson turns 38 in August, and Kintzler is currently on the disabled list with a forearm injury. Both relievers played vital roles in the Nats’ bullpen a year ago, but they may not be quite as reliable in 2018.

The Nats’ middle relief depth has been a little shaky as well. Justin Miller has dominated since joining the team, but it is still a relatively small sample size. Meanwhile, Sammy Solis and Tim Collins have proven to be reliable lefties.

For once, the Nats will not be in the market for a closer. Instead, they could use a middle reliever or a long man. Miller, Matt Grace, and Wander Suero have served as makeshift long men, but the Nats need a bonafide long reliever.

The San Diego Padres could be a perfect trade partner for the Nats to address their bullpen needs. Former Nat Craig Stammen would be a great long reliever, while Kirby Yates and/or Adam Cimber would fill the middle relief need.

If A.J. Preller is still willing to trade with the Nats after they stole Trea Turner and Joe Ross, there could be a few players departing San Diego for DC.

Philadelphia Phillies

After signing Jake Arrieta and Carlos Santana last offseason, possibly expediting their rebuild, the Philadelphia Phillies find themselves just behind the Nats. They have been expected to be big players in the upcoming offseason, but nobody expected them to make a serious run at winning the division in 2018.

Now, the Phillies are in a tricky spot. With the Braves and Nats atop the division, the Phillies have a tough road to the top. They could be a Wild Card team if they fall short in the division, but their best bet is to try to dethrone the Nats.

Unfortunately, the Phillies have recently hit a rough patch. If they are going to make the postseason, they must make a few moves at the deadline. However, due to their window to win just beginning to open, they should mostly focus on players who can make an impact for years to come. They do have an opportunity to make the postseason this year, but they will have a much better chance in the coming seasons.

Led by Arrieta and Aaron Nola, the Phillies’ rotation has been surprisingly solid. Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta have been inconsistent, but they have each shown promising signs. If Matt Klentak can find a veteran starter, perhaps a guy like Chris Archer or Marcus Stroman, he should be all over it.

Philadelphia’s bullpen has also been a bit shaky. Hector Neris, the Phillies’ saves leader, was recently sent to Triple-A. He has great stuff but has shown a tendency to have epic meltdowns in high-leverage situations.

Edubray Ramos, Victor Arano, and Seranthony Dominguez have formed a dominant trio of young relievers, but they could use a veteran presence in the ‘pen. Pat Neshek is progressing towards his season debut after missing the first few months with a shoulder strain, but another veteran reliever would be a welcome addition.

Finally, the Phillies could use another offensive threat in the infield to accompany Santana and Cesar Hernandez. They have been rumored to be a suitor for Manny Machado, but they are not ready for such a significant trade.

Instead, Philadelphia should target a guy like Whit Merrifield. He is making just $569,500 this season and is under team control through 2022. The Royals recently dealt Kelvin Herrera, which will likely begin a series of trades. If they are willing to part with Merrifield, he could be a perfect fit in Philadelphia.

Although the Phillies may be on the outside looking in as far as the 2018 playoff picture is concerned, they could make a few moves to improve their chances of contending in 2019 and beyond.

New York Mets

Despite their lofty expectations entering the season, the New York Mets likely will not make the postseason in 2018. They are eight games under .500 and 11 games out of the division. Crazier things have happened, but it would take a miracle for the Mets to make the postseason. FanGraphs gives them just a 2.9 percent chance.

Unfortunately for the Mets, they are not in a great position to make the postseason anytime soon either. The Nats, Braves, and Phillies are all set to contend for years to come, while the Mets have an aging core and a lackluster farm system. Because of this, it is time for a fire sale.

Jacob deGrom has been outstanding, pitching to a league-leading 1.51 ERA. However, the Mets are only 6-9 in his starts. Between an anemic offense and a struggling bullpen, it has become complicated for the Mets to win, even with deGrom on the mound.

deGrom deserves better. He is under contract through 2020, and the chances of the Mets returning to contention by then are slim. That is unless they make some major moves.

The Mets should begin a fire sale, beginning with trading deGrom. It would be challenging to deal their ace, but he could bring back a king’s ransom. Their farm system is nothing to write home about, and they do not have many young stars in the majors, but deGrom could change that by himself.

Furthermore, the Mets should trade anyone worth anything except for Noah Syndergaard, Michael Conforto, Amed Rosario, and Brandon Nimmo.

Syndergaard, Conforto, Rosario, and Nimmo are all young and cost-controlled. The Mets can build around these players. However, everyone else should go. Players like Steven Matz, Jeurys Familia, Todd Frazier, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Yoenis Cespedes can bring back solid prospects to help with the rebuild. Things are apparently not working out in New York right now, but a rebuild could right the ship.

As we saw with the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros, a proper rebuild can help a team return to contention in just a few years. The Mets would be wise to bite the bullet and clean house now.