Phillies: Trade-fix checklist
For the Phillies, July could provide an opportunity to be a buyer instead of a seller for general manager Matt Klentak, but his decisions will follow the toughest quarter of the schedule ending on July 1.
Missing pieces:
Philadelphia Phillies fans have a wish list regarding acquisitions the GM should consider to go deep in the postseason. However, the prices for some talent on also-ran teams will be expensive because of other contending franchises with similar needs.
IN OTHER WORDS: “I play because I know I can play the game, so it’s their decision whether or not they want to keep me or they wanna trade me. Whatever decision they make, I will understand it.” – Carlos “Ivan” Beltran
The first inkling of Klentak’s thinking was winning the three-game series against the Washington Nationals. But even if the hometown nine sweep the series, it won’t determine their position regarding the wild card or taking the NL East. Just a clue!
On this 42-game stretch with eight to go, the Phils have five more contests versus Washington and three against the New York Yankees. Presently, the last part of the test features the divisional favorite and a strong World Series possibility. So far, they are 17-17.
According to the locals, the red pinstripes need a third starter, a closer, and a solid bat. Of course, the front office differentiates deal-wise between the all-or-nothing Wild Card Game or an NLDS berth. Miles apart!
Even if the Phillies capture the divisional crown, they will probably add just one piece because they don’t want to deplete the farm system for a long shot. Realistically, they are more than one star away from the National League pennant, even though anything is still possible.
Rebuilding is in its final stage: addressing weaknesses. And, basically, the organization only has some starters with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs making some noise. On the other hand, fans have seen all the main position players from Lehigh Valley.
The ideal return would be a piece to play here for two years, which would be worth paying more for even if Klentak moves a potential major leaguer. On the other hand, most sellers want a solid prospect for an October difference-maker.
One shot:
From now to July’s end, fans and writers will comment about the Phils’ shortcomings, real or perceived. They are relighting the hot stove to fuel their preseason stances for a three-slot starter, a closer, and a third baseman. Pick one!
As for the rotation, the good guys have Zach Eflin, Vince Velasquez, and Nick Pivetta, and one may be that third starter to slot behind Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta. And even though Eflin is the most dependable so far, the contests through July 1 will be a determining factor.
In the bullpen, the red pinstripes are auditioning Edubray Ramos and Victor Arano for the ninth inning, while Seranthony Dominguez faces the toughest late-game outs. In fact, even one of the relievers signed during the offseason could also have an opportunity or two
Because the lineup after the cleanup spot has been inconsistent, Maikel Franco alone may not provide enough average-wise to slot fifth. His cold spells are the reason to acquire a decent bat for two or three months at the hot corner. In other words, Kapler’s reserves aren’t enough.
Needing a .260 mark from Franco, Klentak may have interest in left-handed hitter Mike Moustakas who’s batting .258 with 14 home runs and 48 RBIs. Perhaps, he could platoon in the five hole with Franco to lengthen the lineup and protect Carlos Santana. That stated, he’ll have $2.17 million remaining contractually on Aug. 1.
While the Kansas City Royals will have a consolation prize after Manny Machado moves to a contender, the Baltimore Orioles will want a solid prospect below the top tier compared to the Royals’ light return. As for Machado’s cost, his pact will have $5.33 million remaining at July’s end. His current stats are .306, 19 homers and 55 RBIs.
Acting strategically:
Recently, Adrian Beltre of the Texas Rangers is the third baseman du jour, and he’s averaging .314 with four long balls and 25 RBIs. His current deal has $9 million for the last three months and will have $6 million for the final third of the campaign.
If Klentak has a concern, it would be Beltre’s two disabled-list stints with a left hamstring strain. However, Beltre, Machado, and Moustakas are healthy, while Josh Donaldson must prove he’s sound when the Toronto Blue Jays reactivate him.
While Machado will be a sought-after bat by many contenders like the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Atlanta Braves and the Phillies could have interest in Moustakas and Beltre due to a lower asking price. However, Moustakas is only hitting .192 with two home runs and nine RBIs for June.
FOOD FOR THOUGHT: “Strategy requires thought, tactics require observation.” – Max Euwe
In the NL East, the Nationals are coping with the injury bug, but they could make a stretch run with everybody healthy. As for Atlanta, they haven’t had more than a couple of three-game losing streaks, which isn’t sustainable; and they have 18 contests against stronger competition starting on June 29.
If Klentak presently has interest in a third sacker, he could assume a remaining contract to add a bat for the five-hole instead of waiting until July. Yes, he could take on $9 million for Beltre to platoon at the hot corner and offer a prospect that may not fit under the 40-man umbrella. Ergo, a preemptive strike!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Plate-discipline comparison through June 23.
- Machado: 13.8 K% and 10.5 BB% with a .375 OBP.
- Beltre: 17.7 K% and 7.8 BB% with a .365 OBP.
- Moustakas: 14.1 K% and 7.2 BB% with a .313 OBP.
- Donaldson: 27.7 K% and 13.2 BB% with a .333 OBP.
- Franco: 14.0 K% and 6.1 BB% with a .297 OBP (Phillies).
According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.
| Rating | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Great | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Above Average | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Average | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Below Average | 22.0% | 7.0% |
| Poor | 25.0% | 5.5% |
| Awful | 27.5% | 4.0% |
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
Stats through June 23:
- Machado, almost 26: 74 Gms., 325 PA, a .306 Avg., a .375 OBP, a .566 SLG, a .260 ISO, a .304 BABIP, 19 HR, 55 RBI, a .941 OPS and a 2.8 fWAR.
- Beltre, 39: 47 Gms., 192 PA, a .314 Avg., a .365 OBP, a .456 SLG, a .142 ISO, a .358 BABIP, 4 HR, 25 RBI, an .820 OPS and a 0.8 fWAR.
- Moustakas, 29.5: 75 Gms., 320 PA, a .258 Avg., a .313 OBP, a .467 SLG, a .210 ISO, a .258 BABIP, 14 HR, 48 RBI, a .780 OPS and a 1.3 fWAR.
- Donaldson 32.5: 36 Gms., 159 PA, a .234 Avg., a .333 OBP, a .423 SLG, a .190 ISO, a .303 BABIP, 5 HR, 16 RBI, a .757 OPS and a 0.7 fWAR.
- Franco, 25.5: 64 Gms., 229 PA, a .255 Avg., a .297 OBP, a .425 SLG, a .170 ISO, a .259 BABIP, 9 HR, 37 RBI, a .721 OPS and a 0.1 fWAR (Phillies).
Next: Phillies: Proof for the naysayers
If you have any questions or opinions regarding Philadelphia Phillies players, please open the comments section.