NL West: Preview of the MLB Trade Deadline
With MLB trade deadline rumors kicking in earlier than normal, let’s take a look at what the roles for each NL West team will be at the deadline
The MLB trade deadline typically spurs movement in July, but this year has started early. What position will each team in the NL West take in the MLB trade deadline market (buyer, seller, undecided). We will examine how each team will fit into the July activity.
Before this season, the NL West was considered to be a very challenging division that had people predicting as many as three playoff teams coming out of the division, but interestingly, it was rarely the same three teams.
Currently, the division is holding serve, as all five teams remain within 10 games of the playoffs, which is an impressive status for any division, especially this late in the season. In the National League in 2017, multiple teams were already 20 games out of their division, let alone out of the Wild Card. In fact, in 2017, the NL West had two teams who were 19.5 and 24.5 games behind the division leader already on this date, and they were also both at least 15 games behind the Wild Card leaders.
After making few offseason moves, the Dodgers seemingly intended to hold serve in the division, but they are currently looking up at the Diamondbacks. The Giants made huge moves, acquiring long-time franchise faces Evan Longoria from Tampa Bay and Andrew McCutchen from Pittsburgh, yet they have been hovering around .500 throughout the season.
The Colorado Rockies and Arizona Diamondbacks joined the Dodgers in the playoffs, but both had rather controversial strategies to the offseason as both spent the majority of their offseason investing in further bullpen pieces, the Diamondbacks more on the mid-range to low-end price while the Rockies went after a few top-end free agents.
So how could the MLB trade deadline alter the NL West race in 2018? Let’s start with the current division leader, the Arizona Diamondbacks…
Next: Arizona
NL West preview: Arizona Diamondbacks
MLB trade deadline role: Buyer
After a great season in 2017 that led to the Diamondbacks making the NLDS, the Diamondbacks wanted to be able to have more success than their 3-game sweep to their division rival. However, due to financial constraints, the Diamondbacks were restricted on the moves they could make.
They made a focus to get a top-flight catcher and targeted arguably the best veteran catcher available on the free agent market in Alex Avila. The team made moves to add a number of bullpen pieces, including trading for Brad Boxberger, signing a foreign reliever in Yoshihisa Hirano, and signing T.J. McFarland and Jorge De La Rosa, all important members of the 2018 bullpen this season.
The biggest move of the offseason was a deal for outfielder Steven Souza that cost the Diamondbacks Brandon Drury and two minor league arms and also brought back promising minor league starter Taylor Widener. Souza has missed much of the season, playing just 14 games on the year.
Already, the Diamondbacks have addressed one of their biggest need areas by acquiring outfielder Jon Jay from the Royals to improve their outfield depth behind an injury-prone outfield corps.
The biggest issue the Diamondbacks have run into in 2018 so far has been starting pitching issues. Taijuan Walker was lost after 3 starts to Tommy John surgery. Robbie Ray has only made 6 starts on the season. Zack Godley was expected to take another step forward, but instead, he’s posted a 4.64 ERA on the season due to heavy struggles with his control.
Of course, finding more relief help is always excellent, and the Diamondbacks would love to add a partner for Paul Goldschmidt in the middle of the lineup, but the financial and prospect cost could be fairly steep.
Who they could target
A big play for Manny Machado has been rumored lately, and that would be incredible for the team, but whether the team has the pieces in its farm system along with the financial flexibility to make such a move is questionable.
Instead, the Diamondbacks are most likely going to be focused on pursuing an arm, likely someone like J.A. Happ from Toronto, Cole Hamels of Texas, or Ian Kennedy of the Royals. However, it should be noted that the Diamondbacks have had a frequent trading relationship with the Tampa Bay Rays, and they could be a prime destination for Chris Archer for that purpose.
Let’s look next at their quickly approaching division rivals, the long-standing dominant team of the NL West, the Dodgers…
Next: Los Angeles
NL West preview: Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB trade deadline role: Buyer
The Dodgers were dominant in 2017, and many didn’t see that slowing down in 2018. The team returned largely intact and the pitchers that left the bullpen were replaced by quality pieces. Instead, the team came out of the gate in 2018 very slow due to injuries, and as players have begun to return to the lineup, the Dodgers have begun to take off again, quickly asserting themselves as one of the dominant teams not just in the NL West, but the entire National League.
The Dodgers have tremendous depth on their roster, which has allowed the team to absorb the loss of Corey Seager for the season, a typical death blow for average teams. Chris Taylor has slid to short while the offense has seen significant contributions from “bench” players like Enrique Hernandez and Max Muncy.
That all said, the offense could certainly use a consistent second baseman and/or center fielder if the team could find such a player.
Clayton Kershaw has recently returned to the rotation, but the team has a definite need for someone alongside Kershaw, especially if they aren’t sure that top rookie Walker Buehler will be back to top form after fracturing a rib.
The bullpen was a source of domination in 2017 behind closer Kenley Jansen, but even Jansen hasn’t been exactly the same in 2018. After a stumble out of the gate, he’s back to his dominating ways, but his support staff could always use an upgrade, and the Dodgers definitely have the farm system to acquire any needs they might have.
Who they could target
The Dodgers were close on Zach Britton last season, and they could make a push this year for his services, though the need for a center fielder could make a bigger deal more interesting with Baltimore as center fielder Adam Jones heading to free agency along with Britton after the season.
While impending free-agent options in the outfield are not expansive, the selection of upcoming free agent second basemen is long, and one target that the Dodgers could focus on if his team decides to “sell” is Minnesota Twins second baseman Brian Dozier. The Twins also have solid starting pitching options to acquire in Lance Lynn and Ervin Santana that could be worked into a larger deal around Dozier as well.
Don’t be surprised to also hear of the Dodgers involved in big arms on the market like Cole Hamels, JA Happ, Brad Brach, Brad Ziegler, and Joakim Soria.
Now, to the first of two teams fighting to stay in the race at this time, starting with the Giants…
Next: San Francisco
NL West preview: San Francisco Giants
MLB trade deadline role: Buyer
After one of the worst seasons in recent team history in 2017, the Giants made some big moves this offseason in acquiring Longoria and McCutchen. They also made some other very key acquisitions beyond the two big names in trading for reliever Sam Dyson, signing catcher Nick Hundley, signing utility player Alen Hanson, signing outfielder Austin Jackson, signing starter Derek Holland, and signing reliever Tony Watson. All of those moves added significant talent and depth to the team.
The Giants have had impressive offensive performances from Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, and Buster Posey, but they have had a hole in left field all season long, and that is a major need in their offense.
Even though the offense could use consistent production from left field, it seems drastically consistent and productive compared to the rotation and bullpen this season.
Madison Bumgarner and Johnny Cueto have combined for 9 starts on the season, which is just one more than Jeff Samardzija has made. The one pitcher to make each turn in the rotation this year has been Chris Stratton, who is having a fine season, but with a season that should be mid-rotation, not front of the rotation.
Hunter Strickland had taken over as closer when Mark Melancon was injured early, but he’s found himself on the DL due to another incident of stupidity. The depth of the bullpen means that a healthy Melancon, Dyson, or Watson could step in as closer now, and those three should be solid in their roles, but getting Will Smith back to 100% is vital for getting a second lefty along with Watson in the bullpen.
Who they could target
Really, this Giants team has to go all-in on the next season or two due to the financial structure of the team likely leading to a significant fall-off after 2019 when McCutchen leaves after 2018 and Bumgarner after 2019 due to the team already being over the luxury tax threshold for the 2019 and 2020 seasons.
That would make pursuing guys like Cole Hamels, JA Happ, Marco Estrada, and Lance Lynn and Ervin Santana if the Twins end up out of the race a likely target for the Giants with their farm system and financial situation. They’re likely not going to be good matchups with the Rays for Chris Archer, the Blue Jays for Marcus Stroman or Aaron Sanchez (if they’re made available), or the Mets for Jacob deGrom or Noah Syndergaard.
The Giants will be looking to add to their lineup for the stretch in the NL West race, and they could look across the bay to the A’s and Khris Davis, who would bring a significant and needed source of power to the lineup.
One name that had been tied to the Giants in the offseason and could be an interesting selection for them again would be Shin-Soo Choo. Choo is left-handed, so he would compliment the lineup well with Belt, Crawford, and Joe Panik the only lefty hitters in the lineup currently.
And the other team fighting hard to stay in the playoff race, last year’s second Wild Card team, the Rockies…
Next: Colorado
NL West preview: Colorado Rockies
MLB trade deadline role: Buyer
The 2017 Rockies used a young rotation and a powerful lineup to get to the postseason, but found that they were short in the bullpen when they got to the Wild Card game and weren’t as confident in the arms they were going to as their NL West division cohort and Wild Card opponent, the Diamondbacks, were.
They chose to make big moves for relievers in the offseason, signing back Jake McGee, who had been with the team, as well as Bryan Shaw and Wade Davis. The Rockies also chose to pursue a defensive focus behind the plate for their talented young pitching staff and top relievers, bringing in veteran catcher Chris Iannetta.
Instead, the big relievers that signed have posted a 4.40, 7.57, and 5.90 ERA, respectively, while the bullpen has been the biggest sore spot on the team, with young starting pitchers struggling to repeat their success of 2018.
The offense has certainly been a positive this season, with big power, though interestingly, only three hitters are currently posting above 100 OPS+ numbers. The team could definitely use some depth on their bench, though they could use their own farm system to find that depth.
Who they could target
If the Rockies are truly going to go hard after the 2018 season, the biggest area to improve will be in the bullpen. They simply could have better numbers there through regression to career norms for their relievers on staff, but better depth in the bullpen will be a priority.
Whether they would attack the top names is debatable, especially with big money already invested in the bullpen, but the Rockies could be players for pitchers like Seung Hwan Oh, Sergio Romo, and Brad Ziegler. They could also be players for Hector Santiago of the White Sox as a swing man from the left side or pursue Zach Duke or Fernando Rodney of the Twins if Minnesota chooses to sell.
Last, let’s take a look at the final team in the NL West, a team that could be very, very interesting in their role at the MLB deadline, the Padres…
Next: San Diego
NL West preview: San Diego Padres
MLB trade deadline role: Seller
While they’re being labeled a seller here, the Padres are in a spot where they could be very interesting to watch this trade market. Akin to where teams like the Astros and Cubs were the year before they broke out, the Padres could upset the MLB trade deadline and the NL West balance by playing both sides.
The Padres have a young team that is starting to filter the future cornerstones to the big league club. Eric Hosmer was signed to a long-term deal over the offseason, Manuel Margot is establishing himself in center field, and Joey Lucchesi has quietly had a very impressive rookie year in the rotation.
The Padres could end up playing both sides, making moves for those players available on the market that are locked in to long-term deals, like Chris Archer of Tampa Bay, Marcus Stroman of Toronto, Blake Treinen of Oakland, Danny Duffy of Kansas City, deGrom and Syndergaard of the Mets, Starlin Castro of Miami, or Scooter Gennett of Cincinnati, among others.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
Who they could move
The Padres have a plethora of players that could be moved this trade season that are not long-term players for the organization, though they may be holding down a lineup spot for the 2018 season. A great example of that is Freddy Galvis. Galvis had a big start to the season, but has played to his career offensive norms, which isn’t exactly great. He has been a steady shortstop defensively, however, something the young Padres infield has needed.
Pitching is where the Padres could bring in a significant return for players. Lefty Clayton Richard is not an ace, but he’s a steady mid-rotation pitcher who’s pitched to a 3.87 FIP and 1.21 WHIP this year. Tyson Ross has rebuilt a lot of his value this year by remaining healthy, with a 3.34 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over 89 innings.
Brad Hand was extended over the offseason, but that certainly doesn’t exclude him from being traded in the right deal. The rest of the the bullpen has all been incredible, and all of the pieces in it could certainly be moved for further depth in an already-loaded Padres farm system.
The NL West should see plenty of player movement during the MLB Trade Deadline, and it already has. This will be a very interesting division to watch!