Phillies’ trades: Sure thing or long shot
The 2018 Phillies are now buyers after their 10-9 record against other wild-card hopefuls, and general manager Matt Klentak can add a critical piece to the active roster after laying the groundwork through June for a deal.
Passed the test:
When the Philadelphia Phillies began the 42-game stretch against wild-card and divisional contenders, Klentak stated he would be active if the team is relevant. Well, they are only three games behind the division leader and have possession of the second wild card through June 29.
IN OTHER WORDS: “Sooner or later you must move down an unknown road that leads beyond the range of the imagination, and the only certainty is that the trip has to be made.” – Bruce Catton
With rebuilding at an end, the offense is of concern in right field, shortstop, third base and catching, which has additional emphasis on defense. However, Maikel Franco is averaging .258 with power and run production, but a replacement must be a significant upgrade or a left-side bat to platoon.
When Franco hits, fans believe he’s just playing head games with them before his never-ending cold spells. Pick up a third sacker! No, he gets hot and goes cold. Like other regulars, the reality is every hitter is streaky, but the enshrined stars at Cooperstown were the most consistent ones everybody’d prefer.
The most likely area for improvement is the relief corps, but Pat Neshek will add a beneficial wrinkle due to his funky delivery. As for restructuring, the red pinstripes placed a priority on flamethrowers. Ergo, Seranthony Dominguez and Edubray Ramos are the best so far.
While fans have concerns, some factors are positive: reactivated hurlers and opponents without playoff aspirations. So, Phils relievers will be a reenergized group with renewed confidence because of less stressful innings. For, however, outside closer options, there is a link on the last page to “Phillies: July’s trade targets.”
Although most locals don’t complain about Scott Kingery, they’re sure Franco needs replacing, and others think the good guys should add a third starter. The young rotation is ahead of schedule, but some are uncomfortable with Vince Velasquez. Past is prologue?
Recently, a host and a color commentator on a postgame show had different takes on Zach Eflin. The television personality believed Eflin is pitching well for a five-slot hurler, while the former pitcher twice hinted Aaron Nola and Eflin are solid. Unfortunately, looking at total numbers alone ignores the variables.
Rental arms:
The 2018 stats don’t reveal the medicals for righty Tyson Ross. In 2016. he started his only contest on April 4 before right shoulder inflammation.
Last summer, Ross had just 12 appearances (two in relief) after June 12. He had Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery, which can end a career. Think Mike Adams. That stated, Ross is 5-5 with a 3.32 ERA for the San Diego Padres.
As for Cole Hamels, the Texas Rangers want to move him before the All-Star Game. The aging southpaw is 4-6 with a 3.61 ERA, but Klentak already has a decent three-slot hurler with Eflin. On the other hand, if Nick Pivetta continues struggling, the red pinstripes could replace him with Jerad Eickhoff in a month.
Health-wise, Ross is a risk, Texas will soon deal Hamels, and J.A. Happ is the top available moundsman. In other words, the Toronto Blue Jays will want near-ready MLB prospects and have no shortage of suitors. The portsider is 10-3 with a 3.62 ERA, but don’t expect a winning bid from Klentak.
If you think the GM needs a starter, do you also believe the Phillies will win the NL East and have an excellent shot at the pennant? Well, Klentak may not agree with you and, in that case, won’t be acquiring a rotation piece. But he probably won’t be certain until late July.
In fact, the exec is more likely to “rent” a hitter for two months, even though he is expecting Kingery to be more productive in the second half. But his primary concern is a ninth-frame option to complement Dominguez, who will continue in his fluid role.
Eflin’s June:
- @ Chicago Cubs: 7 2/3 Inn., 8 H and 1 R (ER): the only series win.
- Milwaukee Brewers: 6 Inn., 3 H, 2 R (2 ER) and 9 K: the only series win.
- @ Milwaukee: 5 Inn., 3 H and 1 R (ER).
- @ Washington Nationals: 5 Inn., 6 H and 2 R (2 ER).
- New York Yankees: 7 Inn., 4 H, and 0 R: the only series win.
To sum up, Eflin is 6-2 with a 3.02 ERA, and a former starter, closer, and backstop realize the right-hander is for real. He went 5-0 with a 1.76 ERA for June, but he didn’t face weak lineups. So, what is the one thing a healthy Eflin doesn’t look like? A one-month wonder!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
A goal of 80 percent (through June 29):
Starters:
- Eflin: 7 good and 1 so-so of 10 total for 80.0% (Phillies)
- Happ: 10 good and 3 so-so of 16 total for 81.3%
- Hamels: 10 good and 4 so-so of 16 total for 87.5%
- Ross: 11 good and 3 so-so of 16 total for 87.5%
Stats through June 29:
Starters’ stats:
- Eflin, 24: 10 Gms., 56 2/3 Inn., 6-2, a 3.02 ERA, a 2.85 FIP, a 3.71 xFIP, a 3.65 SIERA, a 1.6 fWAR and a 1.13 WHIP (Phillies).
- Happ, 35.5: 16 Gms., 97 Inn., 10-3, a 3.62 ERA, a 3.68 FIP, a 3.53 xFIP, a 3.42 SIERA, a 2.0 fWAR and a 1.06 WHIP.
- Hamels, 34.5: 16 Gms., 97 1/3 Inn., 4-6, a 3.61 ERA, a 5.22 FIP, a 4.12 xFIP, a 4.04 SIERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.27 WHIP.
- Ross, 31: 16 Gms., 95 Inn., 5-5, a 3.32 ERA, a 3.86 FIP, a 3.83 xFIP, a 4.05 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.19 WHIP.
Next: Phillies: July's trade targets
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