#15 (17) San Francisco Giants, 45-40, .529 (41-44 Expected Record)
-12 run-differential, 18-10 over the last 30 days
The Giants are just 2.5 games out in the NL West despite having Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija on the DL and being without Madison Bumgarner for most of the season. In their place, the Giants are getting good pitching from guys like Andrew Suarez (4.18 ERA, 3.56 FIP) and Dereck “Son of Pudge” Rodriguez (3.16 ERA, 3.34 FIP).
#14 (12) Los Angeles Angels, 43-42, .506 (44-41 Expected Record)
+17 run-differential, 13-14 over the last 30 days
More than half the season has been played and the Angels are 11 games out of the second wild card in the AL. This isn’t how they imagined it would be when they signed Shohei Ohtani and acquired Zach Cozart in the offseason. Both Ohtani and Cozart are on the DL now, but the team is still playing Albert Pujols (88 wRC+, -0.3 WAR), Luis Valbuena (69 wRC+, -0.4 WAR) and Kole Calhoun (22 wRC+, -1.0 WAR) regularly. They’re going to need another Mike Trout to make up for those drains on the offense.
#13 (10) Washington Nationals, 42-40, .512 (45-37 Expected Record)
+32 run-differential, 9-16 over the last 30 days
The Fangraphs projections still have the Nationals winning the NL East despite their current six game deficit to the Atlanta Braves. It’s easy to think the Braves will continue to lead the division but projections have been fairly accurate over the years.
#12 (14) Philadelphia Phillies, 45-37, .549 (42-40 Expected Record)
+6 run-differential, 13-14 over the last 30 days
If the season ended today, the Phillies would be the second wild card team in the NL. They’re doing this despite getting very little from the shortstop position. If any team could use Manny Machado, it’s the City of Brotherly Love.
#11 (15) Oakland Athletics, 46-39, .541 (43-42 Expected Record)
+8 run-differential, 17-10 over the last 30 days
The A’s have been on a tear lately, with 12 wins in their last 15 games. Suddenly, they’re the team that’s closest to the Mariners in the race for the second wild card. In their recent hot stretch, they’ve beat up on the Padres, White Sox and Tigers. They’ll play 10 of their next 12 games heading into the All-Star Break against Cleveland, Houston and San Francisco. We should know if they’re pretenders or contenders when this stretch is behind them.