Washington Nationals: 2019 outfield will still be a strength
What will the Washington Nationals outfield look like next year?
The Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies have contended sooner than expected. As of this writing, the Braves lead the National League East by three games over the Phillies. Moreover, they lead the overwhelming preseason favorites the Washington Nationals by six games.
For those good at deductive reasoning, that means the second-place Phillies are three games above the Nationals. In fact, the Phillies are coming off a series win against the Nats, winning three of four against them.
According to Fangraphs Playoff Odds, Washington came into the season with an 89.3 percent chance of reaching the postseason. Their odds have not fallen too dramatically, considering the plethora of talent on the team, but now sit at 73.4 percent.
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Meanwhile, the Braves and the Phillies started off 2018 with a 3.2 percent and 10 percent chance of making the playoffs, respectively. Atlanta’s playoff odds have soared to 49.7 percent as of July 1st, the highest it has been all year. Ditto the Phillies which have 31.7 percent chance of reaching the postseason.
This was supposed to be the Nationals year to win the division pretty handedly. The New York Mets were the only team which were anticipated to be within striking distance. Instead, the Mets are fighting with the Miami Marlins for last-place honors and the Braves and Phillies look like very formidable NL East adversaries.
Atlanta and Philadelphia’s rebuilds have ended and they are contending mode. This is scary for the NL East because the teams are comprised of young, controllable talent with more of the same in the minor leagues. In other words, both teams project to be good for quite a long time.
The Nationals, on the other hand, are probably going to lose their face of the franchise in Bryce Harper this offseason. In certain minds, especially entering the season, this was the team’s last chance; the year to go for it all. Harper was supposedly the player that dictated the success or failure of the team.
Well, the emergence of Juan Soto has changed that outlook. In 149 plate appearances, the 19-year-old rookie has churned a remarkable .310 AVG/.416 OBP/.571 SLG slash line with a 1.2 fWAR.
Soto’s injury problems last season stripped away a lot of the hype from his prospect pedigree but he his hit like this at every single stop. This suggests sustainability in his production going forward, which is extremely exciting for the Nationals.
Harper has been worth 1.3 fWAR in 358 plate appearances, over twice as many chances as Soto this season. They have provided almost equal value to the oft-injured team in a disproportionate amount of time.
Soto could be on his way to snag the 2018 Rookie of the Year award while Harper is probably riding the train to a $200 million-plus contract in the winter for a different uniform. The former will make the league minimum and could conceivably provide similar value to the lucrative latter.
Even more exciting for Washington is the fact that Soto is not even considered their top outfield prospect. Victor Robles, who hyperextended his left elbow earlier in the year, is a consensus top-five prospect.
Washington Nationals
He will likely miss a good chunk of 2018, as he already has, but could feasibly contribute to the club as soon as this season. Robles, like Soto, has mashed at every minor-league stop and appeared ready to be valuable to the big-league club before the injury.
With that said, the Nationals have a very crowded outfield due to the Soto’s presence. Outside of Soto and Harper, Washington has two very capable outfielders in Adam Eaton and Michael Taylor.
Regardless, Robles should be able to make an enormous impact for the team in 2019. If his minor-league play is any indication, he could be one of the best outfielders in baseball during his rookie campaign. These things are far from a guarantee but the potential is huge and he seems to be one of the safer prospects in the MLB.
Getting back to the presently-deep Nationals outfield, Eaton has been solid when he has been healthy. His wRC+ sits at an above-average 116 mark, which is due to a high average and a decent walk rate. The 29-year-old has never had much power but his .111 isolated power is the lowest it has been since his 2014 season when he only took one baseball out of the park.
Despite the small sample size, his defensive metrics have not looked as good as in the past. This can probably be accredited to his reduced foot-speed as a consequence of his ACL injury. His Sprint Speed in 2017, before the injury, was a well above-average 28.6 ft/s. This season his Sprint Speed has fallen to a below-average 26.8 ft/s. That is not a small decrease.
His reduced speed has also hurt his baserunning value, which was a big part of his game in the past. Still, as he continues to recover from the injury, there is a chance he can regain that speed. With it, he should be able to be that all-around guy again and, as a result, one of the better outfielders in baseball.
Eaton is under contract until 2019 with two reasonable team options for 2020 and 2021.
Michael A. Taylor has quietly been a 1.3 fWAR player this season, matching Harper’s total. This is followed by an even quieter 3-fWAR campaign in his previous season. Despite this, he currently occupies a bench spot and certainly is among the most-valuable bench players in baseball.
He has not hit for as much power as last year (he smoked 19 bombs) but his baserunning has been incredible this season. He leads baseball in BsR (5.9) and stolen bases (23), even though he has not had as much playing time as some of these other guys.
On almost any other team, he would be one of their better outfielders but, for the Nationals, he is their number four. When Robles is healthy, he becomes their fifth-best outfielder, even if the Nats’ top prospect stays in Triple-A.
Taylor has two years of arbitration left and is currently making $2.5 million in his first year of eligibility.
With Robles, Soto, Eaton and Taylor, the Nationals can decidedly afford to lose Harper. This is a cheap, young and deep group that is anticipated to be one of the best outfielder corps in the game without the aforementioned star.
Next: Nationals catching options
The Washington Nationals reign of terror is not nearly close to being over, with a robust farm system and an abundance of current-MLB talent. Their rotation is strong but their outfield is stronger. As such, they should be right there with the Braves and Phillies in 2019 and beyond.