Phillies: Buy 1, promote 1
Whether Phillies fans are optimistic or pessimistic, uncertainty is the reason, and general manager Matt Klentak despite a statistical mountain cannot address every shortcoming as if the pennant is at stake.
Emergent July:
For the Philadelphia Phillies, the 21-21 record against wild-card and divisional contenders was proof of passing the toughest test encompassing a quarter of 2018’s schedule. But keep in mind, although the red pinstripes have a 1.5-game lead for the second wild card, making an acquisition this month could decide that berth.
IN OTHER WORDS: “I think it’s much more interesting to live not knowing than to have answers which might be wrong.” – Richard P. Feynman
To some fans, Vince Velasquez with a 4.69 ERA and Nick Pivetta with a 4.66 ERA are not equal. They believe Velasquez should be in the bullpen, while Pivetta is the three-slot hurler and the reason to pick up a rotation veteran. But which one has a future?
Firstly, Velasquez’s ERA is deceiving because one outing was 3 2/3 innings with 10 runs (earned): They kept him in despite two frames and five runs (earned) and pushed for five innings. In his prior six starts, however, he had been 3-2 with a 2.14 ERA and then went 1-1 with a 3.86 ERA for four games.
Regarding Pivetta’s 3.26 ERA before June, he followed that with three straight clunkers, two decent performances and a debacle: 0-4 with a 7.71 June ERA. But two decent starts out of his last three and Velasquez on the disabled list are his opportunity for redemption. So, what is another option? The pen!
However, if Velasquez needs more than 10 days, right-handers Drew Anderson on June 8 or Enyel De Los Santos on the 10th could pitch. On the other hand, if Pivetta doesn’t rebound, he, De Los Santos or Anderson could secure the ninth.
While pitching help could come from the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs, the Phils don’t have a bat to advance like Rhys Hoskins last August. Presently, the parent club has a second baseman, a left fielder, a center fielder and a first sacker in the first four holes of the order. But the other spots are still up for grabs.
As for run production, the hometown nine need Maikel Franco or an addition to hit fifth behind Carlos Santana. Hurlers now can pitch around Santana to avoid damage.
Planning ahead:
Because neither Nick Williams nor Aaron Altherr have been overly impressive this summer, their playing time is roughly equal. Williams has 222 plate appearances and Altherr has 225, even though the Phillies face more right-handers. Ergo, a job to win!
At shortstop, Scott Kingery is manning the position because J.P. Crawford is on the injured list. Otherwise, they would have similar plate-appearance numbers and will after the All-Star break.
Of course, Crawford will start some contests at the hot corner as well. But if Klentak deals for a third sacker, that new player could platoon with Franco. However, the GM and skipper could be considering that as a backup plan. Translation: they also are using any motivation to unlock Franco’s full potential.
Stars like most people have patterns to normalize their lives, and Hoskins is no exception. When he enters a new phase of his career, he eagerly begins with a bang. To illustrate, his hot streaks have coincided with his promotion from Lehigh Valley and his first April in the majors.
Prediction: Hoskins will begin a hot streak due to his layoff.
Yes, It screamed a hitting “rampage” after his DL stint ended on June 9. And that forecast was in the final paragraph of “Phillies: June’s games vs. playoff teams” published on June 13: the beginning of his hot spell. As for production, he averaged .312 in June with eight home runs and 22 RBIs.
Kingery batted .200 in April, .213 for May and .250 in June. Seeing the improvement, Klentak and Kapler certainty are anticipating .270 to .280 for the second half. Prediction: Kingery will play an important role in August and September.
Solving the puzzle:
Based on meeting their 2018 expectations so far, the franchises besides the Phillies are the Atlanta Braves, Milwaukee Brewers, Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks. Of course, 74 or more contests are remaining to determine which organizations will play beyond the standard 162.
Currently, the Phils are one game behind the Braves for the division lead. And these two clubs will face each other for seven of their final 10 contests in September. Yes, and the last three games will be in Philly. A red celebration?
With many scenarios in play, Klentak will probably prioritize a bullpen piece or a closer instead of a bat or a starter. However, his decision-making will continue throughout July. In other words, if the GM can’t plug a roster hole in house, he’ll make a swap without overly affecting the pipeline.
While trade rumors swirl around the Internet, Klentak has a preference for De Los Santos or Anderson to replace a disabled or ineffective starter, and a reliever from the pen to handle the ninth inning. And Kapler wants Franco to earn hitting fifth.
Additionally, Kapler went to Allentown to evaluate Anderson’s outing on July 2. But the righty had an off night: 6 runs (earned) for 3 2/3 frames. Unfortunately, he went from a 3.35 ERA to a 4.15 ERA. But did the manager see a one-inning hurler for the good guys?
Everybody has tells. In fact, one of Kapler’s tip-offs involves earning a regular spot in the lineup. The rookie skipper had planned to start Kingery in the second contest on March 29, but Cesar Hernandez went two for five and impressed Kapler as a leadoff man. Ergo, history.
When Odubel Herrera wasn’t in the Opening Day lineup, he didn’t like it, and Kapler’s reply was “good” in the same tone currently regarding Franco. Now, he is batting eighth, and Kapler recently stated it’ll force him to wait for a good pitch. What did the manager say about the bottom slot? “The best spot for him!”
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Goal of 80 percent (through July 5):
Phillies starters:
- Velasquez: 10 good and 3 so-so of 17 total for 76.5%
- Pivetta: 6 good and 1 so-so of 10 total for 70.0%
IronPigs starters:
- De Los Santos: 14 good and 2 so-so of 16 total for 100%
- Anderson: 6 good and 2 so-so of 11 total for 72.7%
Phillies starters:
- Velasquez, 26: 17 Gms., 88 1/3 Inn., 5-8, a 4.69 ERA, a 3.81 FIP, a 3.66 xFIP, a 3.56 SIERA, a 1.5 fWAR and a 1.29 WHIP.
- Pivetta, 25.5: 18 Gms. (1 in relief), 87 Inn., 5-7, a 4.66 ERA, a 3.69 FIP, a 3.38 xFIP, a 3.37 SIERA, a 1.5 fWAR and a 1.31 WHIP.
IronPigs starters:
- De Los Santos, 22.5: 16 Gms., 95 1/3 Inn., 9-3, a 1.89 ERA, a 3.90 FIP, a 3.78 xFIP and a 1.08 WHIP.
- Anderson, 24: 10 Gms., 52 Inn., 5-3, a 4.15 ERA, a 4.78 FIP, a 4.12 xFIP and a 1.13 WHIP.
Next: Phillies' trades: Sure thing or long shot
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