Seattle Mariners have a first base problem
The Seattle Mariners have a problem in the lineup at first base.
The weakest link on the Seattle Mariners is first baseman Ryon Healy, but Robinson Cano could strengthen the chain in August.
With a little more than a week until the all-star break, the Seattle Mariners are having an unexpectedly great season. At 56-33, they have the fourth-best record in baseball and sit just 2.5 games behind the Houston Astros in the AL West. Their playoff odds, courtesy Fangraphs, are up to 87 percent. The team closest to them in the race for the second wild card is the Oakland Athletics, who sit 7.5 games back.
The elephant in the room is that the Mariners are not a .629 winning percentage team. Their expected record, based on their runs scored and runs allowed, is 47-41. One of the reasons they’ve won nine more games than expected is a 26-11 record in one-run games. If they were a much more reasonable 19-18 in one-run games, they would be 49-39 and nine games behind the Astros.
In an alternate universe where every team wins precisely as many games as expected, the Mariners would be in a four-team battle for that second wild card, with all four teams within three games of each other. In this “expected record” world, the 47-41 Mariners would be holding a slim lead over the Angels (46-42), Athletics (45-43) and Rays (44-44). That’s not this world, however.
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In this world, the Mariners have a great shot at making the playoffs for the first time since 2001. Even just making the win-or-go-home wild card game would be a burden lifted for the franchise and its fans. It would also allow Felix Hernandez, the one-time ace, now diminished back-end starter, to sit on the bench and watch at least one playoff game for the first time in his 14-year career. If they advance behind the wild card game, Felix might even get to pitch in the postseason.
As good as the Mariners have been so far, they do have some areas in which they could improve. Like most teams in baseball, they could use more pitching, particularly in the starting rotation. As the trade deadline nears, they’ll have plenty of competition for any average-or-better starting pitcher made available, but they don’t have much in the way of prospects to compete with teams who do.
Setting pitching aside, let’s look at their position players. The hitting and fielding production of the Mariners position players rank tenth in baseball in Fangraphs WAR. Five positions rank in the top 10. These include DH (Nelson Cruz), shortstop (Jean Segura), second base (Robinson Cano and Dee Gordon), right field (Mitch Haniger), and third base (Kyle Seager). All of those lineup spots have been worth roughly 2 WAR or more so far. These are the guys who are driving the bus.
The weaker spots are the other positions, like catcher (Mike Zunino, currently injured), center field (Dee Gordon and Guillermo Heredia), and left field (Guillermo Heredia, Ben Gamel and Denard Span). Those spots have been worth between a half-win and a win above replacement level. Not terribly productive, but not a black hole either.
The black hole in the lineup is first base, primarily the domain of Ryon Healy. With a .245/.275/.460 batting line and poor defense, Healy has been worth -0.2 WAR. That’s below replacement-level. More importantly, that’s about what can be expected of Healy going forward. He’s projected to hit .253/.287/.430, and continue to be poor on defense, which would be worth 0 WAR over the rest of the season.
Of course, the Mariners have another first base option playing at Triple-A named Dan Vogelbach. Big Dan is hitting .276/.438/.547 for the Tacoma Rainiers. Including his play this year, he’s played 311 games at the Triple-A level in his career and has hit .288/.409/.491. He’s not much of a fielder, but he would likely provide the lineup with on-base percentage, something Healy does not provide.
On paper, the lefty-hitting Vogelbach and righty-hitting Healy should combine to provide some positive value. Healy has a 124 wRC+ against lefties in his major league career (.291/.325/.504). Vogelbach is hitting .294/.444/.567 against righties in Triple-A this year. It seems like a logical pairing.
That being said, the Mariners don’t seem too interested in having Vogelbach play in the major leagues. Despite his success in Triple-A, he’s never been given an extended stretch of playing time in the big leagues to see what he can do. I don’t expect that to change. More likely, I could see Vogelbach being traded for pitching help if the Mariners can find a team who wants to take a chance on a guy who has hit Triple-A pitching well.
That still leaves the hole at first base, but the Mariners may have another in-house option to pair with Healy down the stretch. Second baseman Robinson Cano will be back from his 80-game PED suspension in mid-August. It was reported recently that he has fully recovered from the broken bone in his hand suffered in May. He’s taking batting practice and fielding ground balls, along with training in the weight room.
Cano can start a rehab stint at the beginning of August. Because of the PED suspension, he won’t be eligible to play in the postseason should the Mariners make the playoffs. General Manager Jerry Dipoto has already said that Dee Gordon will continue to get playing time at second base because he’ll be there when the playoffs start.
When Gordon is at second, where does Cano play? Dipoto was asked this question recently and answered, “I’ll talk to you about that later.” First base is the logical spot. The team’s best hitter, Nelson Cruz, is the DH and the Seattle Mariners need his bat in the lineup as much as possible. Cano is projected to be their second-best hitter. He needs to be in the lineup also. Hopefully, Robinson Cano will spend the rest of July learning how to play first base.