Houston Astros: Dallas Keuchel hasn’t escaped his haphazard ways

Houston Astros pitcher Dallas Keuchel has had essentially two different careers. In some seasons, he’s been an elite hurler. In others, he’s looked even worse than mediocre. And after enjoying a rebound campaign in 2017, he reverted back to inconsistency during this year’s first half.

Dallas Keuchel walked off the mound at Minute Maid Park, the Houston Astros in a 7-0 deficit.

He didn’t look disheveled, though he labored through a tiresome six-inning start. If he was irked, he didn’t show it. He didn’t obliterate a Gatorade bin with a bat nor engage in a minute-long tirade in the dugout.

But the Houston pitcher was tired – vexed by his performance.

“It’s very frustrating because I feel like I had some good stuff today, and it showed early,” Keuchel told CBS Houston reporter Chris Abshire after the outing. “If I show up on a few pitches here and there, it’s a totally different ballgame. It just seems like that’s the way it’s going right now.”

Postgame interviews and pre-game discussions seemed like repeats. By the end of the year, the ace sounded like a broken record, voicing his frustration over poor outings – one after another.

The May 22 start in 2016 exemplified Keuchel’s campaign that year. The then-reigning Cy Young winner looked like a below-average pitcher, one not worthy of any hardware.

Fans were despondent, shocked. Few expected him to rebound. His prior year seemed resplendent – a faux.

Keuchel’s career has been a teeter-totter of unanticipated success and disappointment. Like the San Francisco Giants, it seems that the productivity of his season hinges on an aspect as irrelevant as whether the year is even or odd.

After posting immaculate numbers in 2015, he sported an inflated 4.55 ERA in 2016. Yet, a year later, it seemed that those inconsistent and ineffective starts were over.

The Houston pitcher regained his flash in 2017. His pinpoint accuracy and effective repertoire of pitches returned. Keuchel’s resurgence lasted throughout the entire season.

But the first three months of this year are evidence that he hasn’t left his mediocre days behind. Of course, this isn’t he first time he’s encountered a significant obstacle.

And Keuchel knows what it takes to regain his form and reestablish himself as one of Houston’s best starting pitchers.

2016: A year to forget

Keuchel will be the first to admit it. He “sucked” during the 2016 campaign.

The lefty was the first to secure a Cy Young award for the franchise since Roger Clemens captured the National League title in 2004. Yet, the Arkansas alumnus posted a 5.58 ERA across the first two months of the year as his encore.

After toiling through a 230-inning season the year prior, Keuchel didn’t feel healthy. And it showed throughout the tiresome season.

“It was like I was using a rubber band and shooting it to the sky to get (the ball) 60 feet. I knew something was wrong from the get-go, and nothing helped,” Keuchel told USA Today’s Ted Berg of his 2016 season.

His velocity dropped, and his sinker didn’t bite. He punched out 72 fewer hitters while allowing 20 homers in just 168 innings. The lefty surrendered just 28 bombs in his 432 innings across 2014 and 2015.

Keuchel didn’t confound opposing hitters. Instead, he made them shine. They slugged .424 against him, .100 points greater than in 2015.

At 28 years old, the Houston ace was at a crossroads. It seemed too late to revamp his workload or fabricate a new identity. He still had tools to be successful.

But Keuchel couldn’t survive another pedestrian year. With the Astros improving as a franchise, he had to reestablish himself to retain his job at the head of the rotation.

And that’s what Keuchel did, just as fans seemed to throw in the towel.

2017: The comeback year

Fans and analysts were curious on Opening Day. Questions surrounded Hinch’s decision to start Keuchel, especially after a disappointing campaign.

The southpaw didn’t get off to a good start, surrendering a single to Mariners shortstop Jean Segura. Then Mitch Haniger roped a low fastball into right field, right to Josh Reddick.

Yet Keuchel looked like the pitcher of old afterwards, working the corners and keeping the ball low. He induced Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz into groundouts to end the inning.

Six innings later, the Houston pitcher stepped off the mound having relinquished zero runs. He earned the win that day, the first of 14 throughout the regular season.

Keuchel was back.

Before suffering a pinched nerve in his neck in June, the bearded wonder owned a stellar 1.67 ERA with an undefeated record. He looked like classic Keuchel on the mound, walking just 18 in that span compared to 69 strikeouts and a plethora or ground balls.

It was just the beginning of a revitalizing – and somewhat surprising – season. The former Astros ace improved dramatically in several areas between 2016 and 2017.

First, Keuchel thrived against hitters in later innings. His ERA the first time through the opponent’s batting order matched his numbers the third time through.

Also, opposing hitters struggled mightily with runners in scoring position, hitting just .217. Moreover, left-handed hitters rarely got on base against him, owning a .144 average and .190 one-base percentage.

Lastly, the Houston fan favorite was excellent at home. Keuchel’s 2.26 ERA at home ranked third among pitchers with more than 60 innings pitched. And the Astros starter was just one of 10 players with a sub-1.00 WHIP at home.

Keuchel’s dominance on the hill continued through his first two starts in October, though he struggled in the World Series. Nevertheless, his resurgence across the year contributed greatly to Houston’s first-ever championship.

And while the left-hander didn’t enjoy a Cy Young-caliber year, it seemed that his worries were behind him. Yet, Astros fans soon found out that wasn’t necessarily the case.

2018: The contract year

It wasn’t completely his fault.

But when Seattle outfielder/infielder Dee Gordon reached second base on an error to start the game June 5, everything unraveled. The next hitter singled. Then a runner scored on a fielder’s choice.

However, that wasn’t the blow. Kyle Seager delivered a three-run bomb, putting the Mariners up 4-0 with just one away. That inning alone is essentially the epitome of Keuchel’s campaign this season. The southpaw finished that outing with seven earned across 6 2/3 innings.

“I felt like there was no way seven runs were on the board with the way I felt,” Keuchel told McTaggart after his poor performance. “I know what 3-8 feels like, and it doesn’t feel like this. It’s tough, but at the end of the day, I want to help the guys out. It’s just the way it’s going.”

April seemed like dejá vu to a certain extent. The Astros pitcher took a step forward in 2017, but leaped backward once again to begin this season. His inconsistency has plagued him.

Nevertheless, his biggest issues happen during the first innings in each game. More than half of his runs allowed this year came within the first three innings. He’s had two instances in which he surrendered four or more runs in the first inning.

And Keuchel’s former success against hitters later in games isn’t accurate in 2018. Opponents own an .828 OPS against the southpaw during his third time through the order.

Unlike his case two years ago, Keuchel’s cannot claim diminished velocity as an issue. However, hitters have avoided grounding out often against the pitcher.

Lastly, the southpaw’s bread and butter from last year have been an issue in 2018. Opponents boast a .294 average against his sinker and a .859 OPS against his sinker. More than half of his home runs allowed came against those two pitches.

Numbers suggest the struggles might continue as the season progresses. However, it doesn’t mean Keuchel will concede to statistical projections.

And he may be trending in the right direction already.

Can he rebound again?

Hinch hasn’t lost faith in the Houston starter. Yet, as Keuchel enters free agency this offseason, his performance might determine whether he stays with the reigning World Series champs. 

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But the 30-year-old’s seat is getting warmer. As the season progresses, Keuchel continues to have erratic outings. Yet, he shows flashes of his former self, just as he did in his most recent start. He tossed seven innings of two-run ball with seven whiffs.

And even Hinch mentioned he looked like his old self, possibly even the Cy Young self.

“It looked like he could control his pitches,” Hinch said after his July 3 victory. “It was probably the best breaking ball he had this year, and [he had] action on his pitches.”

Keuchel’s been in this position before. But with a longer-term contract on the line, he has to be better.

Houston plans to compete throughout the next few seasons. And the front office takes the necessary measures to ensure the Astros remain as contenders.

If they don’t see Keuchel as a major contributor in the near future, they will be indifferent. Despite how much Houston adored the left-hander during his career in the Lone Star State, it could be coming to a close.

Next: Kyle Tucker finally earns his promotion

Yet, Keuchel knows how to deal with adversity. And when analysts and fans didn’t expect him to bounce back, he proved them wrong.

Now Keuchel has an opportunity to do it again. This time, however, much more is on the line.