Milwaukee Brewers: A scouting report on new call up Corbin Burnes
The Milwaukee Brewers called up their top pitching prospect to the major leagues. What should we expect from him?
The Milwaukee Brewers have been calling up players to fill in their team as they make a playoff run this year. The most recent is top pitching prospect Corbin Burnes, their top prospect in the organization.
Player Profile
Corbin Brian Burnes received plenty of notice in his final season at St. Mary’s in California as he struck out 120 batters on the season in 101 2/3 innings, posting a 2.48 ERA and gaining plenty of pre-draft acclaim. Burnes was drafted in the 4th round of the 2016 draft by the Milwaukee Brewers.
After 7 innings with the Arizona Rookie League team, Burnes was moved up to the Brewers low-A club, but with heavy usage in college already on the season, but Brewers managed his innings with Wisconsin, and in total in 2016, he totaled just 35 2/3 innings of pro work, with tremendous results – a 2.02 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, a 12.32% walk rate, and a 28.08% strikeout rate.
Burnes opened the 2017 season with the Milwaukee Brewers’ high-A affiliate in Carolina, where he posted a 1.05 ERA over 10 starts, pushing a promotion to AA Biloxi. He doubled his ERA, but that was still quite elite. His final season total was 145 2/3 innings pitched, a 1.67 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 5.45% walk rate, and 21.21% strikeout rate.
After the tremendous 2017 season, Corbin Burnes was ranked frequently as the top Milwaukee Brewers prospect in the system, and he was also a universal top 100 prospect, ranking #74 with Baseball America, #69 with MLB Pipeline, and #80 with Baseball Prospectus. He was ranked #48 in Call to the Pen’s top 150 list.
This season, Burnes has forced his way onto the Milwaukee Brewers roster not with a pretty ERA, as the Pacific Coast League will do that to a person’s ERA, but through quality peripherals, as he’s pitched to a 5.15 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 78 2/3 innings, but with a 9.04% walk rate and 23.62% strikeout rate.
Next: Corbin's scouting report
Scouting Report
Size/Delivery/Control
Size – Corbin Burnes is very solidly built at 6’3″ and 205 pounds. I’d say the 6’3″ is accurate, but the 205 could be 10-15 pounds light, but Burnes is built very athletically, with good muscle build from his thighs up through his shoulders.
Delivery – From his delivery, Burnes is very deliberate, staying tall through his delivery, and using good arm action from a high 3/4 slot to get plane on all of his pitches. He generates good body momentum toward the plate in his delivery with his methodical, numbers-high lift of his knee in his delivery, falling just a bit to the first base side from that momentum at the end of his delivery.
From the stretch, Burnes simplifies plenty, featuring just a waist-high knee lift before he drives toward the plate with a similar high 3/4 arm slot, though he has a more pronounced fall to the first base side in his follow-through from the stretch as it seems he’s needing to calm down his momentum of his delivery.
Control (55) – Something I would have tagged with a pure 60 based on 2017 performance has seen just a tick of downturn this season, and much of it does have to do with his pitch array trying to pitch in Colorado. When a pitcher relies on spin rate pitches in that thin air, it can do terrible things to both command and control. That’s why I’m not ready to go to a straight 50 on the control, but it’s definitely something to note the could take some time in the bigs to fully polish off again.
Pitches
Fastball (60) – Burnes gets excellent plane on his fastball, with both his four-seam and two-seam pitches having some natural cut to them. He likes to work the four-seam at the top of the zone and can touch 98-99 with that, and in relief stints, he had some triple-digit radar readings, but he’ll sit more in the 93-95 range as a starter and the 94-97 range as a reliever.
Split-Finger (60) – This is the pitch that has so many people confused with Burnes. Many report the pitch as a split-change or a changeup with split-finger action. After watching a ton of video and trying to get a good view on it, it appears that Burnes is simply throwing a traditional split-finger fastball, letting the ball get fully back into his hand like the traditional grip, working at 86-88 in the rotation and 89-91 as a reliever, with hard, split action.
Curve Ball (60) – Unfortunately, this is the pitch that has seen the most struggle this year, and it was his best pitch coming into the season of what was a pretty balanced repertoire. Burnes throws his curve with a very high spin rate, getting a sharp, 12-6 action on the pitch that bites late and leaves hitters swinging at air. However, it’s exactly the air that has left the curve more ineffective in 2018 as the thin air in Colorado Springs means that pitch has an inconsistent break and is often landing outside of the zone.
Slider (55) – Coming out of college, Burnes would likely have referred to his best two-pitch combination as his fastball and slider. His slider is still a definite weapon, a pitch that he works in the upper 80s with frequency and has seen work into the 91-92 range as a reliever. He can get a bit “aimed” with the slider, trying to generate movement with it, and he’ll lose command of the pitch.
Next: Future Role/Player Comp
Present/Projected Role
For just under a month, the Milwaukee Brewers have had Corbin Burns throwing in relief with Colorado Springs. He’s not shown well in the role thus far, with a 6.52 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 9 2/3 innings out of the bullpen in 6 appearances. His raw stuff, however, has played up exactly the way you would hope it would for a top arm like his in that role.
Some guys, however, are not made to be relievers. They work better in the rotation where they can get into a game and work through a lineup a couple of times to set up hitters over the course of the game.
Burnes has the feel of the latter. He seems to get stronger as the game goes on in his results as he has an exceptional mentality on the mound. While he might be a guy that fits a bullpen role for now for the Milwaukee Brewers, unlike teammate Josh Hader, Burnes’ best long-term role would appear to be as an inning-eating mid-rotation starter.
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MLB Player Comp
When you watch Burnes, you quickly see a comp of a former top prospect that at one time seemed to be the perfect example of getting great value for a rental player at the trade deadline.
Zack Wheeler has had some definite ups and downs over his career with the Mets, but when he’s at the very top of his game, he pounds the zone with his fastball, and he then uses his curve, slider, and splitter to offset from there.
Wheeler’s often miscast as a top arm simply due to his former prospect status, but he’s really built to be an elite mid-rotation guy, with a wide variety of pitches that can produce elite groundball rates and pound the zone. If he can stay healthy, the Mets would love to have that level of work in their rotation.
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So, while the Milwaukee Brewers will be using Corbin Burnes out of the bullpen for now, there’s plenty to like in there as a potential very good #2/3 starter in a rotation as soon as 2019! What do you think of Burnes? Comment below!!