Diamondbacks: Revisiting the Shelby Miller Trade
The Arizona Diamondbacks took some risks to improve their rotation prior to the 2016 season. These risks included signing Zack Greinke to the largest contract in franchise history and trading a #1 overall draft pick to the Braves for Shelby Miller.
Although Greinke has not put up the same stellar numbers he did for the Dodgers, I would not consider him a disappointment. In 77 games for the Diamondbacks, he holds a 3.64 ERA and a 3.65 FIP in 475 IP, so he has been a consistent top of the rotation starter.
Miller, on the other hand, has not been what the Diamondbacks hoped when they traded for him. In 2015 for Atlanta, he made 33 starts with a 3.02 ERA and a 3.45 FIP. However, from 2016-2018, he’s only made 28 total starts for the Diamondbacks. Through those starts, he holds a 6.39 ERA and a 4.82 FIP.
The Diamondbacks traded Aaron Blair, Ender Inciarte, and Dansby Swanson to acquire Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier. Due to the package they were willing to part with, Arizona had much higher expectations for Miller.
According to Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, Miller left his start rocky start early in Colorado on July 11th due to tightness in his right elbow. After Paul Goldschmidt gave the Diamondbacks a 1-0 lead with a Home Run in the first, Miller gave up five runs to the Rockies on 37 pitches.
The Rockies ended up scoring 19 runs in the game, which is ironic considering Miller has now given up 19 earned runs this season. Miller has pitched 15 innings this season since his return from Tommy John surgery. Unfortunately, a DL stint for the once highly sought after starting pitcher is likely to follow this disappointing appearance in Colorado.
Although Aaron Blair looked to be a promising acquisition after he pitched to a 2.82 ERA in 26 appearances between AA and AAA in 2015, he has not lived up to his potential.
In 16 MLB starts with Atlanta, he holds a 7.89 ERA and a 6.32 FIP. The Braves have given up on this piece of the trade after releasing him on May 31st of this year.
The #1 overall pick in the 2015 MLB draft, Dansby Swanson, has not lived up to offensive expectations, but he is still a solid shortstop for the Braves.
In 258 career games (all with Atlanta), he has compiled 1013 plate appearances. Within those appearances, he holds a .316 OBP and a .366 SLG. He holds a 1.9 WAR in 2018 and a 2.5 WAR for his career.
Ender Inciarte has surprisingly been the best piece of this trade for the Braves
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In 377 games with Atlanta, he has compiled 1694 plate appearances. Within those appearances, he holds a .343 OBP and a .385 SLG. He holds a 1.3 WAR in 2018, but he has compiled an 8.2 WAR in his Braves career.
Even though this trade has not worked out for the Diamondbacks, it was not detrimental to their franchise.
The Diamondbacks definitely did not live up to expectations in 2016 directly after this trade as they missed the playoffs with only 69 wins. However, they turned things around quickly.
In 2017, they won 93 games to earn a first place Wild Card finish.
So far in 2018, they have won 51 games which has them atop the NL West.
This trade was a risk for the Diamondbacks, but risks need to be taken in order to acquire controllable starting pitching.
Next: Revising Phillies Expectations Upward
I would imagine the Diamondbacks regret selecting Dansby Swanson at the #1 spot in the 2015 draft over Alex Bregman, Brendan Rodgers, and Andrew Benintendi more than they regret this trade.