The Kansas City Royals probably won the 2017 Rule 5 Draft

KANSAS CITY, MO – JULY 07: Brad Keller #56 of the Kansas City Royals pitches during the first inning against the Boston Red Sox at Kauffman Stadium on July 7, 2018 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Brian Davidson/Getty Images) /

While it’s early, the Kansas City Royals have gleamed a significant amount of value from the 2017 Rule 5 Draft

The Rule 5 Draft is probably one of the most overlooked and misunderstood sources of talent acquisition for teams. It is not very likely a team will find an extremely valuable piece there, however. Most of those coveted players, who have the service time eligibility to qualify for the draft, are protected on a team’s 40-man roster. With that said, there are cases when a team selects a Rule-5 draft picks who end up helping enormously.

The appeal of acquiring a player from the Rule 5 Draft is that it is incredibly cheap. Per MLB.com, a team does not have to make their pick but, if they do, they will only have to pay the team the player was originally on $100,000. Plus, they would have to pick up the cost of that player’s contract which, in all likelihood, is the league minimum.

Not only is it cheap, but if a team does decide to keep their Rule 5 pick, they probably deem them MLB ready (or close to it). Rule-5 picks have to remain on the 25-man MLB roster and, if not, they will have to be placed on outright waivers. In other words, if a team decides not to keep their Rule 5 pick (which happens a lot), the player would most likely be returned to their original team.

An MLB roster spot is very coveted and, again, if a player is eligible for the Rule-5 Draft, it means their chances of being a solid MLB contributor are not very good. Their current team did not believe they were worth a protection spot on the 40-man roster, after all. This may be oversimplifying because a team could feasibly have “too much” MLB talent and thus have to make a tough decision on whom to protect.

Anyway, impactful Rule 5 draft picks are rare but not unheard of. Philadelphia Phillies outfielder Odubel Herrera was selected in the 2014 Rule 5 Draft from the Texas Rangers. He has been worth 12.2 fWAR over his three and half seasons with the club, pairing above-average offense with a standout glove (sans 2018) and value on the base paths.

Other recent success stories include Joe Biagini (Blue Jays, 2.3 fWAR), Hector Rondon (Cubs, 3.9 fWAR) and Justin Bour (Marlins, 4.6 fWAR). The latter, who was a HR Derby participant last year, actually was selected in the minor-league portion of the draft, which is even more impressive.

Even Roberto Clemente and Johan Santana were Rule-5 picks once upon a time, though the system was noticeably different when they were selections.

In the most recent Rule 5 Draft, which took place on December 14, 2017, only 15 teams opted to make picks in the first round of the Major League phase of the draft. Two teams made picks in the second round (Baltimore Orioles and Oakland Athletics) and the Orioles, for some reason, made one in the third round as well.

In case you were wondering, the Orioles selected three pitchers in the 2017 Draft and only kept their second-round pick, Pedro Araujo. In 28 innings of work, the right-hander has pitched to the tune of a 7.71 ERA and 7.38 FIP. He is currently working his way back from the disabled list.

The first selection of the 2017 Rule 5 Draft was from the Detroit Tigers. They picked outfielder Victor Reyes from the Arizona Diamondbacks and he is still on the team as a bench player. According to Fangraphs, he has a 40 future value and is the 20th-best prospect in their system. Still, he has not done so hot in his first cup of tea in the majors, with a 40 wRC+ and -0.6 fWAR in 90 plate appearances. He literally has walked 1.1% of the time, which is mind-blowing.

Fortunately, the Tigers are in a position where they can afford to keep Reyes. He has a pretty nice prospect pedigree, especially for a Rule-5 pick.

The next two picks, Julian Fernandez (Giants) and Nick Burdi (Twins), both had to undergo Tommy John surgery and remain with their new clubs. Burdi was actually selected by the Twins but the Pirates traded for him shortly thereafter. In fact, picks three through six (Nick Burdi, Carlos Tocci, Brad Keller and Burch Smith) were all traded to other teams but all four remain with that club.

After that, most of the remaining picks have been returned to their original team, with the exception of Araujo, 10th pick Elieser Hernandez (Marlins) and 14th pick Albert Suarez (D’backs).

With Suarez, he was actually put on waivers and cleared it. He is pitching with the D’backs Triple-A affiliate, as it appears the Giants did not want him back.

There is still time for these players to be returned, but, as of now, six (excluding Suarez and the injured Fernandez and Burdi) of 18 total MLB phase picks are active on their new squads.

We talked about Reyes, so let’s discuss Tocci, who was drafted by the White Sox from the Phillies and subsequently traded to the Rangers. The centerfielder was the 4th pick in the draft. He resides on the Rangers’ bench and has outdone Reyes in terms of being unproductive.

The 22-year-old sports a -28 wRC+ with a batting average (.061) that matches his slugging percentage (.061) in 39 plate appearances. It is a small sample size, sure, but the fact he has a 41.0 K% (strikeout percentage) does not inspire much confidence. Regardless, like Reyes, he is a top-20 prospect for the team (per Fangraphs) and has a 40 future value. It is evident he is not ready to hit big-league pitching this season, but do not rule (get it?) him out in the future.

I am going to skip around, here, because Smith and Keller are on the same team and talk about Hernandez briefly.

Elieser Hernandez was taken from the Astros and has remained with the Marlins the entire year. He has appeared in more innings (43) than Tocci has had opportunities at the plate, but has not done very well in them. His ERA is a starling 6.28 and his underlying numbers are not much better. He has issued almost as many walks (19) as strikeouts (26), especially if you add two intentional walks and a hit by pitch into that “free pass” total.

He also has a middling prospect pedigree, ranking among the team’s top-20 prospects and has a 40 future value over at Fangraphs.

Circling back to Brad Keller and Burch Smith, the 5th and 6th pick of the draft respectively, these two have probably been the two biggest success stories out of the draft so far. Keller was drafted by the Reds and Smith the Mets, but both were dealt to the Kansas City Royals.

Keller has been more valuable than Smith with a 2.52 ERA and 3.38 FIP, which has made him worth 1.0 fWAR this season. At just 22, Keller has made 7 starts and 28 total appearances for the Royals this year. He does not strike many people out at all (5.19 K/9) and is not the best command pitcher (3.41), either. Instead, Keller is a weak-contact inducer, with one of the higher GB% (groundball percentage) in the league at 56.5 percent. For comparison, the league-average GB% is 43.4 percent.

He has two effective fastballs in the four-seamer and the two-seamer/sinker. His latter pitch is his bread-and-butter, though, and it is a prolific groundball inducer. Opposing hitters have managed to hit for just a .219 average and .288 slugging percentage off the 237 total sinkers they have seen.

He complements the hard stuff with a pretty oft-used slider and a rare changeup. The right-handed pitcher has a decent arsenal and should continue to be valuable for Kansas City, despite his low strikeout total.

Meanwhile, Smith is being given his second MLB opportunity with the Royals. He made his MLB debut in 2013 with the San Diego Padres but that was short lived. In 41 and 2/3 innings this year, the 28-year-old has pitched to the tune of a 5.83 ERA and 5.29 FIP. He has not added anything in the way of value with a -0.3 fWAR but has a decent package if his home run rate were to normalize to a league-average level.

Currently, he has 1.73 HR/9, which is far from sustainable and way above league average. With a league-average home run rate, his xFIP is 4.79. It is not a colorful number by any stretch, but it is a lot more desirable than his present ERA or FIP.

On the encouraging side of things, he has struck out over a batter an inning (9.29 K/9). His real problems have been poor command and the HR Derby opposing hitters have enjoyed off him. Smith, however, does rank as the 17th-best prospect in the Royals system, which says more about K.C.’s farm system than anything and has a 40 future value (Fangraphs). There may be some potential there.

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Still, the Royals have managed to collect 0.7 fWAR and more than 100 innings from two pitchers who cost them virtually nothing. For a rebuilding team like theirs, these are efficient moves. Additionally, both of these guys have a semblance of promising futures as big-league relievers. Keller has proved his worth more than Smith, but there seems to be more long-term optimism with Smith, even though he is six years older.

According to ZIPS projection system, Keller is on pace for 0.3 fWAR in 50 more innings this year. If he were to attain that, he would easily move into being one of the most valuable Rule-5 draft picks in the last decade; certainly over the past five years.

There is still time for some of these Rule-5 picks to prove their worth, but right now it seems evident that the Royals have won the 2017 Rule 5 Draft, at least for this year. They extracted value out of a talent acquisition bin that is rarely utilized, even if they “technically” traded for these pitchers.

One last interesting thing about the 2017 Rule 5 Draft before this blog is finished. Four of the 18 MLB phase picks were Yankees, which is a testament to the amount of MLB-caliber talent exists in their system. Ironically (I guess), all four were returned to the Bronx Bombers and the Yanks did not lose any of them.

Next: Revising Phillies Expectations Upward

The Rule 5 Draft never garners much attention and, considering the likelihood of acquiring an impact player, it is understandable. Even so, teams have the opportunity to acquire MLB players at perhaps the cheapest cost possible (for talent acquisition) and therein lies the value of the Rule 5 Draft.

It is basically the draft equivalent of signing a diamond in the rough to a minor league contract or the league-minimum MLB contract. In sum, wherever a team can find talent, it will.

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