Phillies: Revising expectations upward
![NEW YORK, NY - JULY 10: Maikel Franco #7 of the Philadelphia Phillies celebrates a 7-3 win against the New York Mets after their game at Citi Field on July 10, 2018 in New York City. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_fill,w_752,ar_16:9,f_auto,q_auto,g_auto/shape/cover/sport/c45719e3dc702fbc37ae6ec805ad4cff09faa58b6c762048c778d881f2a37ca7.jpg)
![Neshek will be a major contributor to the bullpen when the Phillies face playoff hopefuls. Photo by H. Martin/Getty Images.](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/391769114eb6572716bb5f690833680530886ffd1a694ac913691b1915935941.jpg)
For the Phillies, sitting atop the NL East is the new goal after surviving a 42-game stretch against postseason hopefuls, while general manager Matt Klentak explores every avenue within reason to improve his divisional contender.
Plus factors:
While the Philadelphia Phillies complete their last four contests before the All-Star break, the front office is planning for the 67 games in the second half. They are crunching numbers, evaluating talent, and selecting the best ideas from numerous meetings.
IN OTHER WORDS: “Never think of revising as fixing something that is wrong. That starts you off in a negative frame of mind. Rather think of it as an opportunity to improve something you already love.” – Marion Dane Bauer
After July 1, the end of the first half had 13 contests remaining; the Phils are 6-3 so far. But if they win the away game and series, they will add a 3-1 mark to finish 9-4 before their brief vacation: The Baltimore Orioles for one game and the Miami Marlins for three.
After the break, the busiest 12 days of trade activity will dictate the headlines, and some fans will expect Klentak to plug every hole. However, the critical decision-making will center on player appraisals during that 42-game stretch against wild-card and divisional opponents. Who did what?
While GMs will make some deals after July 31, scoreboard watching will begin in earnest even for those who’ve been doing it secretly since June 1. Guilty! Yes, the roller coaster is already going up and down, but it will accelerate higher or snowball downward after the deadline.
Zach Eflin had the only win in three of the five series he was victorious, but Nick Pivetta had four poor outings out of seven against National League contenders. By contrast, Vince Velasquez had only one clunker out of six performances.
Besides Seranthony Dominguez, Edubray Ramos and Victor Arano were the pen’s bright spots against the toughest competition. Basically, the yardstick for overall success is 80 percent. Ramos had only two poor appearances out of 13 for 84.6 percent, and Arano had four rough outings out of 14 for 71.4 percent.
In sabermetrics, one way to assess player performance is to compensate for the differences of ballpark dimensions But although run differential doesn’t take blowouts into account, those contests balloon a pitcher’s ERA because hitters can relax. Therefore, lopsided scores.
![Franco is hitting his way to the five hole. Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images.](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/bd7e1131bae46c9f2a863549bb0b42edff854c8074d1191c113f661d4f13bb45.jpg)
Four to watch:
Adjusting for one-sided outcomes, the below numbers are for the 42-game stretch against only October hopefuls, but they don’t include the Toronto Blue Jays’ series. Ergo, the better teams exposed the weaknesses the red pinstripes have like the relief corps, a five-hole hitter and a ninth-inning arm.
Phillies’ stats minus blowout games:
- Record: 20-19 but 18-14 without blowouts.
- One-run games total: 10-3.
- Runs scored: 112 to 117 without blowouts.
When it comes to an in-house bat, Maikel Franco will be in the eight slot until he can improve his pitch selection. Presently, he’s averaging .400 with two homers and nine RBIs from June 23, he’s working counts, but he’ll still have his ups and downs. And he’ll gradually move up to hitting fifth.
Showing current signs of life, Scott Kingery looks more comfortable at the plate. Basically, when you compare Kingery in April to today, he’s a perfect example of player growth. In fact, he’ll contribute more offensively down the stretch.
Santana statistics for the second half:
- 2017: 70 Gms., 251 AB, .287, 13 HR and 32 RBI.
- 2016: 71 Gms., 254 AB, .268, 14 HR and 38 RBI.
To increase production, Carlos Santana needs a threat to hit behind him, or hurlers will continue to work around him to limit his run producing. In Cleveland, he had lineup protection and his stats prove that. However, the Phillies need Franco or an acquired .280 hitter for that spot.
Regarding Rhys Hoskins, he’s has played in 83 games and the Phils have 71 remaining. For now, he’s at .255 with 14 home runs and 56 RBIs, so doubling those numbers roughly equals 28 bombs and 112 RBIs.
![De Los Santos will return to the rotation after the All-Star Game if Pivetta continues to struggle. Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images.](https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/w_480/shape/cover/sport/0c083d7f8c93a2ac9bd10ab4aa1b8c27600ab9e398280837ce7183b7e625c94c.jpg)
In-house fixes:
First rather than last, the bullpen crew underperformed against the franchises they could face after season’s end. But the Phillies’ strategy was to face all organizations, not only the MLB’s best. Originally, even capturing the second wild card was a stretch, but currently the division is within reach. Now what?
The reactivation of Pat Neshek has added a solid reliever to Dominguez, Ramos and Arano. But if Klentak decides not to heavily pay for a closer, he has Pivetta as a possibility if his struggles continue. Or Enyel De Los Santos could have a shot if either isn’t at Triple-A as injury insurance for the rotation.
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While Pivetta has had four clunkers in his last six starts, right-hander De Los Santos made a strong MLB debut on July 10. In other words, Pivetta could lose his rotation slot with another subpar performance. So, either Pivetta or De Los Santos could be the ninth-inning solution this year.
The red pinstripes can count on Aaron Nola, Jake Arrieta, Eflin and Velasquez. Some may question Velasquez, but he only had one dud out of his last 12 appearances: eight were good and three were so-so. Ergo, he’s a reliable fourth starter. As for the five-man staff, De Los Santos has earned another opportunity.
To sum up, Kapler is forcing Franco to bat eighth until he improves his pitch selection. But don’t rule out adding a bat. Regarding a five-slot arm and a closer, Klentak is exercising his due diligence, but De Los Santos and Pivetta could fit either role. What can you expect during the break? Speculation!
Next: Phillies: Buy 1, promote 1
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