MLB Draft: The possible insanity of the 2019 first round
After three first-round selections did not sign, the 2019 MLB draft could end up being very interesting!
The MLB draft has become as much strategy with bonus pool as picking the best player with each selection. Smart teams sometimes don’t pick the absolute top-rated selection on national boards due to knowledge about the signability of a player and how he could fit into their bonus pool.
That will be incredibly tested in 2019, when the first real test of the new CBA will come into play as the first round of the 2019 MLB draft commences. The new CBA that was signed in the 2016-2017 offseason changed the structure of draft pick forfeiture for teams, making it very difficult for a team to lose its first-round selection.
The Atlanta Braves will have the #9 selection, the Arizona Diamondbacks will have the #26 selection, and the Los Angeles Dodgers will have the #31 selection based on their first-round selections not signing this year. Let’s play out a scenario where the Braves, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers finish with the 3rd, 5th, and 7th best records in MLB this year, respectively, for the purposes of this exercise. That would give the Atlanta Braves the #9 and #30 selections, the Diamondbacks the #26 and #28 selections, and the Dodgers the #25 and #31 selections.
The new CBA changed the draft pick forfeiture in the first round for signing a free agent to only include those players who remain with a team the whole previous season, have never before received a qualifying offer, and receive a contract over $50M.
When looking at the players on the 2018-2019 free agent list, I see in the range of 13-14 that would possibly receive a $50M contract. Six are likely to be traded this summer, one already has been, and it’s very feasible that 3 or more re-sign with their same team. That leaves 4, and 1-2 of those could end up not getting the $50M needed to trigger the first-round loss.
So, if the Dodgers, Braves, and Diamondbacks would avoid signing those two players, they’d each move up in their natural picks to where the Braves (based on our scenario earlier) would have the 9th and 28th-30th selections, the Diamondbacks would have the 26th and the 25th, 27th, or 28th selections, and the Dodgers would have the 31st and the 23rd-25th selections.
Based on pick values from last season, the Braves in this scenario would have ~$7.2M in bonus pool money to use, before even the compensation and competitive balance picks come into play. By last year’s money, that would give the Braves the spending power of between the 2nd and 3rd pick’s slot value.
The Diamondbacks and Dodgers would have similar bonus pool influxes. Taking their best case options in our scenario, the Diamondbacks would have ~$5.2M and the Dodgers would have just over $5M. That would have been between the 7th and 8th pick in slot value.
This could definitely give the Braves, Diamondbacks, and Dodgers tremendous spending power in the 2019 MLB draft, and it would allow them to truly manipulate where talent goes. This could also allow any of the three teams to pursue a top free agent and still get essentially a full draft’s slot pool.
Clear as mud?! No? Well, the good news is that by the time you see your first mock draft next spring, this will all be worked out. The bad news is that there could be a number of offseason decisions that influence the 2019 MLB draft first round, so this could be a topic all offseason!