The surprising parity in the National League West
The National League West has been quite the battle this season. This type of parity is great for the game.
It should not have been this way on the cusp of the 2018 All-Star Game but here we are. As of this writing, there are four teams in the National League West with an above .500 record and all of them are within, at least, three games of first place.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have taken over as top dogs of the NL West, leading the gritty Arizona Diamondbacks by half a game. Technically, yes, the Dodgers are where they were expected to be: first place. With that said, it was never supposed to be this close and the Dodgers have had to fight an uphill battle to get here after an extremely rocky start.
According to Fangraphs playoff odds, the Dodgers entered the season with the best World Series chances in the National League at 13.5 percent. Since the other juggernauts in the NL have experienced their own struggles (Nationals and Cubs), L.A. still has the highest World Series odds in the league. In fact, their 13.2 percent odds of winning it all are right on par with what they started out with.
It seems very likely that Dodgers will win their division and it could realistically be done pretty handedly. They probably still are the best team in the National League, despite how close the standings are on July 14th. Fangraphs gives them a 77.9 percent chance of winning the division, while the next closest team, the D’backs, has a 14.2 percent shot. Meanwhile, the San Francisco Giants (5.0%) and Colorado Rockies (2.9%) have very low odds of winning the NL West crown.
Even though the Dodgers chances of winning the West are so high, it was not always like this. Sure, they started out with extremely favorable odds but, after a rough April and early-to-mid May, the D’backs actually overtook them in the division odds. On May 16th, the Dodgers sunk to their lowest point (32.2 percent NL West odds) of the season but have made an admirable climb to where they are now.
While Los Angeles has played excellent baseball over roughly the last two months, some credit has to go to the Diamondbacks’ epically-bad May. Arizona went 8-19 in the month, losing their grasp on the NL West lead.
The Dodgers overtook the Diamondbacks recently, surging with a 25-12 record since the beginning of June. As mentioned, they seem poised to stay at the top with incredibly good odds to win not only the division, but the National League.
However, outside of the odds, there is a surprisingly close race happening in the N.L. West. Even if the Dodgers win the division, the Diamondbacks, Giants and Rockies could all be vying for a Wild Card spot.
Since the second Wild Card team (the Atlanta Braves) has the same record as the Dodgers, the NL West competitors find themselves the same amount of games back as they are in the West. The D’backs are a half game out of a playoff spot and the Giants and Rockies are three.
It is possible that three teams from the NL West are in the playoffs by year’s end, like last season, although you could say that about any National League division at this point. In fact, all the NL divisions have surprising parity this season, but none have four teams over .500.
The Giants are rebounding from a 64-98 record last year, which is pretty impressive. I mean, they are only 15 wins away from beating that total this year in mid-July. While no one suspected San Francisco to be as bad as they were in 2017, the improvement they have made is commendable.
They have enjoyed decent seasons from their veteran offseason additions in Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. Moreover, important pieces in Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt have bounced back in a big way this season. Their offense has been adequate, especially relative to last year, but their real strength is their pitching staff.
Their rotation is finally healthy with Madison Bumgarner, Johnny Cueto and Jeff Samardzija all off the shelf. Even when it was not, though, San Fran. has had big-time contributions from placeholder starters who stepped up in an enormous way. Derek Holland still exists and he did admirable work but has now been moved to the bullpen, along with Dereck Rodriguez. Chris Stratton was decent but he now finds himself in Triple-A. Lastly, Andrew Suarez has been excellent and has carved out a permanent role for himself as a starting pitcher for the Giants.
With a healthy rotation, it is not hard to squint and see this team being a serious competitor for a Wild Card spot. Moreover, their bullpen is one of the best in baseball, even without Hunter Strickland. Giants relievers place sixth in team fWAR, headlined by the underrated Will Smith (0.95 ERA) and Tony Watson (1.67 ERA). Reyes Moronta is not too shabby himself (1.67 ERA), while Mark Melancon and Sam Dyson have revitalized their careers. Add Holland and Rodriguez into the bullpen mix and there is a viable case this group is the best in the National League. Even though the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers have pretty good bullpens, too.
Moving to the Rockies, the Bud Black-led squad is looking for its second consecutive playoff berth. They are certainly within striking distance but the team has been plagued by underperformance. Colorado spent an inordinate amount of money on their bullpen and it has been just awful. Jake McGee, Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw, the offseason reliever signings, have combined for a putrid -0.3 fWAR. Thankfully, Adam Ottavino exists. This bullpen would be in shambles without him.
Their best pitcher, Jon Gray, has been demoted to Triple-A indefinitely, despite a better FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) than Corey Kluber and James Paxton. Still, Kyle Freeland, Tyler Anderson and German Marquez have pitched well this season, even though they pitch half their games in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field. Colorado’s rotation ranks somewhere in the middle in fWAR and it is undoubtedly their strength this year.
On the offense side of the ball, they have been atrocious. Moving past their inflated offensive numbers in Coors Field, their batters rank 26th in Major League Baseball in wRC+, which is park adjusted. The only offenses they have performed better than this season have been the Baltimore Orioles, Kansas City Royals, San Diego Padres and Miami Marlins. Wow.
Trevor Story and Nolan Arenado have been very good this season while Charlie Blackmon has been decent. The rest of this lineup has been horrendous, however.
It would take quite a bit for this team to make a postseason push. They would need some of their lucrative bullpen pieces to start pitching like they are capable of and Charlie Blackmon to do what he has done for the last few years in a Rockies uniform. This is an average team, with an underrated rotation, and could definitely wind up around the .500 mark.
Lastly, the D’backs, the Dodgers closest adversary in the standing, have a strong rotation but a very thin one. It does not have much in the way of depth, especially with Clay Buchholz and Shelby Miller on the disabled list. Zack Grienke and Patrick Corbin have both been ace-level good, while Zack Godley has had his moments. Robbie Ray just returned and is still trying to get his groove back. All said, when healthy, this rotation is one of the better ones in the National League.
Their offense ranks near the bottom of the barrel, but they are not nearly as bad as the number says, probably. A.J. Pollock just returned from the disabled list, providing an instant jolt to the Paul Goldschmidt-driven offense. David Peralta has had a sneaky good year, while Daniel Descalso has somehow been amazing. They have also been rumored to loosely be in on the Manny Machado sweepstakes, so, yeah, that would be huge but still is very unlikely.
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The offense is a tad top heavy, which could be aided by Jake Lamb hitting like he has the ability to do. Also, Steven Souza Jr. has been very disappointing this season and, as far as this season is concerned, it is clear they went with the wrong former Rays outfielder.
Getting back on track, the bullpen is decent with Archie Bradley, Andrew Chafin, T.J. McFarland and Yoshihisa Hirano as staples. Closer Brad Boxberger has been shaky at times, but has provided the team with a pretty good 3.17 ERA in close to 40 innings of work.
If any team’s going to challenge the Dodgers, it will probably be the Diamondbacks. They are evenly distributed throughout the diamond, but their pitching depth is a legitimate concern.
Also, shoutout to the San Diego Padres for not being Kansas City Royals or Baltimore Orioles level of awful. Not all heroes wear capes.
This should go without saying, but the way the pendulum swings for these teams will be heavily influenced by what they do trade wise in the couple of weeks. Each of these three teams has holes — some more than others — which would be ideal to fix.
The National League West has probably been the most competitive division to date. The American League West also has four teams above .500 but the Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners have put so much distance between themselves and the Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels that it is not nearly as captivating.
Next: Revisiting the Shelby Miller trade
It was not supposed to be like this. The Dodgers were predicted to take this division by a landslide. While that still could happen, do not count out the other three scrappy teams in the NL West. This is a surprisingly interesting division to watch.