Taking Inventory: What Will the Baltimore Orioles Sell?

A series of bad contracts, failed player development, pitching struggles, and Chris Davis have all brought the Baltimore Orioles to the bottom of the MLB standings. This trade deadline offers an opportunity to begin building for the future.

After yesterday’s loss to the Philadelphia Phillies, the Baltimore Orioles are on pace to lose 117 games. Teams like the Orioles generally are rebuilding, but that wasn’t their plan. Instead, their recent moves put more bad contracts on their payroll. Furthermore, there isn’t much in their farm system either.

The one positive for the Orioles. It makes the trade deadline straightforward. Unlike teams stuck between buying and selling, the Orioles know they need to sell. While, Chris Davis and Alex Cobb‘s albatrosses cannot be traded, plenty should interest contenders.

The Cornerstone: Manny Machado

Machado is one of the best players in baseball. While his defense at shortstop has been questionable, he has a premium bat that fits into the middle of every lineup.

The Orioles have waited longer than they should have to trade Machado. He is a generational talent. But, the Orioles front-office has been convinced that they were on the cusp of contending for quite awhile. They weren’t.

Now Machado’s contract expires at the end of the season. If they don’t trade him now, they’ll have nothing, but a compensation pick to show for him.

Every contender has interest in Machado, but not at any cost. Jeff Sullivan over at FanGraphs tried to find a precedent for a Machado trade. Sullivan noted the Yoenis Cespedes trade as the best comparison. Machado is younger, and a better player, than Cespedes was at the time of his trade. However, they were both big bats set for free-agency.

The O’s have been asking for an arm and a leg from interested teams. No one is interested in emptying their system for a player who will cost at least $400m in just a few months.

Using Cespedes as a gauge, a top 75 prospect in baseball and an additional piece that will rank in the system’s top 20 a reasonable return.

A number of teams have already made offers. According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Brewers, Yankees, and Dodgers have “separated themselves from the pack.”

The Brewers have the biggest need, but after forfeiting draft picks to sign Lorenzo Cain and the Christian Yelich trade, their system lacks depth.

The Yankees have a deep system with a number of intriguing prospects, but the Orioles have zeroed in on southpaw Justus Sheffield and the Bronx Bombers have yet to include him in an offer.

The recent reports have left the Dodgers behind, but don’t count them out. The Dodgers still have a deep farm system and have shown the ability to close blockbuster deals right at the deadline.

The Yankees are the current favorites, but the Dodgers are my favorite to bring Machado west.

The Other Rentals: Zach Britton, Brad Brach, Adam Jones, Danny Valencia, Colby Rasmus, Craig Gentry, Pedro Alvarez, Chris Tillman

Britton does make for an interesting case. At his best, he’s one of the best closers in baseball, but a recent string of injuries raises questions about his value. Like Machado though, every contender could use him.

Reports say the Astros, Indians, Phillies, Yankees, and Red Sox want Britton and I’d be shocked if the Dodgers and a other contenders haven’t called as well. Even with the injury concerns, the host of suitors should allow the Orioles to trump up the bidding and get a pair of prospects who will rank in their top 20.

Brach doesn’t offer the ceiling that Britton does, but he has proved capable of stepping into the closer role for Britton over the past couple of years. There won’t be the rivalry to get Brach that their will be for Britton, but they still should be able to get at least one prospect who will rank in their top 30.

Note: Don’t be shocked if Britton and/or Brach get packaged with Machado. Especially, with the Yankees holding back on Sheffield. Maybe adding Britton gets the O’s the prospect they desire.

Jones may have the best reputation of anyone in this category. He’s not the hitter he once was, but still holds a respectable .278/.303/.427 triple-slash. His inability to play even an average centerfield, however, along with his $17m salary make it unlikely anyone will part with any prospects. If the O’s are unable to move Jones by the deadline, he still will make a good waiver candidate in August.

The Indians and Cubs both have interest in Jones. Still, Orioles fans will be disappointed by the return for the franchise icon. Packaging Jones with Brach or Britton would be one way for the front-office to soften the blow.

Valencia is a versatile switch-hitting bat to come off the bench, but nothing more. There are far better third baseman available. He could serve as a positive throw-in in a deal with Britton or Brach. If not, he has a good chance to move on waivers in August, but for nothing more than a PTBNL and/or cash.

The rest of the group is a sea of injuries and extreme disappointment that won’t draw interest before the deadline. They’re here though because they are set to become free-agents and will get moved in August if they have a productive month or two.