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MLB Home Run Derby prediction

By Bobby Mueller

WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 08: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals prepares for a pitch during a baseball game against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park on July 8, 2018 in Washington, DC. The Marlins won 10-2. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 08: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals prepares for a pitch during a baseball game against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park on July 8, 2018 in Washington, DC. The Marlins won 10-2. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /
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Home Run Derby
WASHINGTON, DC – JULY 08: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals prepares for a pitch during a baseball game against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park on July 8, 2018 in Washington, DC. The Marlins won 10-2. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /

Who has the edge among the contestants in a Home Run Derby that does not include the league’s top five home run hitters?

The first thing you notice when looking at the list of contestants in this year’s Home Run Derby is that many of the best home run hitters in baseball are missing. Where are the Smash Brothers, Yankees teammates Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton? Where are Jose Ramirez and J.D. Martinez, the MLB co-leaders in round-trippers?

Has anyone seen Mike Trout and Francisco Lindor, who are tied for third in big flies? What about Mookie Betts, Nolan Arenado or Manny Machado, who are tied for seventh in dingers? Nelson Cruz? Khris Davis? Edwin Encarnacion? Nope, nope, nope.

In fact, this year’s Home Run Derby has just two players who are currently in the top 10 in home runs, Milwaukee’s Jesus Aguilar and Washington’s Bryce Harper. They rank sixth and seventh, respectively. The other Home Run Derby contestants are Max Muncy (12th in homers), Alex Bregman (18th), Javier Baez (tied for 20th), Kyle Schwarber (30th), Freddie Freeman (tied for 41st) and Rhys Hoskins (tied for 63rd).

That’s not to say these guys can’t hit home runs. Four of them have at least 20 at the All-Star break and the others all have at least 14. They can hit them long and far, but there are others who have done it more often this year who won’t be participating.

Next: Who WILL be there?

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