WASHINGTON, DC - JULY 08: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals prepares for a pitch during a baseball game against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park on July 8, 2018 in Washington, DC. The Marlins won 10-2. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC – JULY 08: Bryce Harper #34 of the Washington Nationals prepares for a pitch during a baseball game against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park on July 8, 2018 in Washington, DC. The Marlins won 10-2. (Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images) /
Who has the edge among the contestants in a Home Run Derby that does not include the league’s top five home run hitters?
The first thing you notice when looking at the list of contestants in this year’s Home Run Derby is that many of the best home run hitters in baseball are missing. Where are the Smash Brothers, Yankees teammates Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton? Where are Jose Ramirez and J.D. Martinez, the MLB co-leaders in round-trippers?
In fact, this year’s Home Run Derby has just two players who are currently in the top 10 in home runs, Milwaukee’s Jesus Aguilar and Washington’s Bryce Harper. They rank sixth and seventh, respectively. The other Home Run Derby contestants are Max Muncy (12th in homers), Alex Bregman (18th), Javier Baez (tied for 20th), Kyle Schwarber (30th), Freddie Freeman (tied for 41st) and Rhys Hoskins (tied for 63rd).
That’s not to say these guys can’t hit home runs. Four of them have at least 20 at the All-Star break and the others all have at least 14. They can hit them long and far, but there are others who have done it more often this year who won’t be participating.
Next: Who WILL be there?
The Participants
Still, there’s a derby to be held so let’s look at the contestants statistically. The first thing to remember with the Home Run Derby is that these are easy pitches to hit. The pitcher grooves a fastball so the hitter can knock it over the fence. So one metric we can use is home runs per balls in play (HR/BIP). To make it more palatable, I’ve figured home runs per 400 balls in play. Here are the contestants, sorted by most HR/400 BIP:
Max Muncy, 56 HR/400 BIP (1st in MLB) Jesus Aguilar, 51 HR/400 BIP (2nd in MLB) Bryce Harper, 41 HR/400 BIP (8th in MLB) Kyle Schwarber, 40 HR/400 BIP (9th in MLB) Javier Baez, 31 HR/400 BIP (40th in MLB) Rhys Hoskins, 26 HR/400 BIP (61st in MLB) Alex Bregman, 25 HR/400 BIP (67th in MLB) Freddie Freeman, 23 HR/400 BIP (93rd in MLB)
Based on what they’ve done so far this season, Muncy, Aguilar, Harper, and Schwarber are your guys, if you’re the betting sort. Of course, because of the mighty force of regression to the mean, players who hit really well in the first half are likely to come down to earth a bit in the second half (and those who are bad in the first half are likely to improve).
With that in mind, I did some research. Using the rest-of-season depth chart projections from Fangraphs, I figured the projected rate of home runs per 400 balls in play for the Home Run Derby contestants. Here they are, sorted by most HR/400 BIP:
Kyle Schwarber, 39 HR/400 BIP (9th in MLB) Bryce Harper, 36 HR/400 BIP (8th in MLB) Rhys Hoskins, 33 HR/400 BIP (61st in MLB) Jesus Aguilar, 32 HR/400 BIP (2nd in MLB) Max Muncy, 28 HR/400 BIP (1st in MLB) Freddie Freeman, 27 HR/400 BIP (93rd in MLB) Javier Baez, 27 HR/400 BIP (40th in MLB) Alex Bregman, 22 HR/400 BIP (67th in MLB)
These projections combine what a player has done in the past, with his more recent performance given more weight, to project what he’ll do in the future. Using these rest-of-season projections, Schwarber jumps to the top of the list, with Harper, Hoskins and Aguilar being good bets also. Muncy is more in the middle of the pack. Freeman and Bregman are near the bottom once again.
Finally, let’s look at one last metric. This one is called Barrels per Batted Ball Events Percentage (Brls/BBE%) and it comes from Statcast. This strips out walks, strikeouts and HBP so it just includes when the bat meets the ball and how often those connections result in a Barrel.
From the Statcast glossary: “Created by Tom Tango, the Barrel classification is assigned to batted-ball events whose comparable hit types have led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.”
Barrels are the best hit balls. They aren’t always home runs, but very often they fly over the wall. Here are the Home Run Derby contestants ranked by Barrels per Batted Ball Events Percentage:
Max Muncy, 19.0% Kyle Schwarber, 14.4% Bryce Harper, 13.9% Javier Baez, 13.1% Jesus Aguilar, 12.9% Rhys Hoskins, 11.0% Freddie Freeman, 11.0% Alex Bregman, 8.5%
There’s the amazing Max Muncy at the top once again, along with Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Alex Bregman, who has an interesting strategy, is at the bottom in Barrels. He plans to hit his home runs at a lower angle so they land sooner and he doesn’t have to wait as much time between swings as the guys who hit long, majestic home runs.
Alex Bregman (@ABREG_1) on the unique strategy he'll use in an effort to win the Home Run Derby: "My key is going to be to hit the homers a little bit lower than the other guys, so it lands sooner, so I don't have as much time to wait in between swings." pic.twitter.com/MC9B5HJMzN
PITTSBURGH, PA – JULY 12: Jesus Aguilar #24 of the Milwaukee Brewers hits a solo home run in the fourth inning during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on July 12, 2018 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images) /
A prediction
Taking all of this information together, here is my prediction for the Home Run Derby:
First Round: Jesus Aguilar (#1 seed) over Rhys Hoskins (#8 seed) Kyle Schwarber (#5 seed) over Alex Bregman (#4 seed) Bryce Harper (#2 seed) over Freddie Freeman (#7 seed) Max Muncy (#3 seed) over Javier Baez (#6 seed)
I’ll take the favorites in the first round, except for the upset special with Kyle Schwarber over Alex Bregman. The hometown fans will be rooting hard for Harper, especially against Freeman, who plays for the division rival Atlanta Braves in the NL East. The two most surprising home run hitters in the first half, Aguilar and Muncy, will advance to round two.
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Second Round: Jesus Aguilar (#1 seed) over Kyle Schwarber (#5 seed) Bryce Harper (#2 seed) over Max Muncy (#3 seed)
It’s tempting to go with Schwarber over Aguilar. For me, it came down to the ballpark. According to RotoGrinders, Nationals Park favors right-handed hitters for home runs. With that in mind, I’ll take Aguilar over The Schwarb. In the other matchup, it’s the hometown favorite over the surprising upstart. Harper should give Nationals fans something to cheer about.
Finals: Jesus Aguilar (#1 seed) over Bryce Harper (#2 seed)
The storybook finish would be for Harper to win the Home Run Derby in his home ballpark, but the storybook finish doesn’t always happen. Just look at the season the Nationals are having in Harper’s last year with the team before he hits free agency.
There have been two players who won the derby in their home ballpark. The Chicago Cubs’ Ryne Sandberg won it in 1990 at Wrigley Field and Cincinnati Reds third baseman Todd Frazier won it at Great American Ball Park in 2015. Harper will come close, but Aguilar wins it this year.
