Phillies’ stretch-drive plans
While Phillies’ rumors fuel debates among the faithful, reality exists in the parallel world of front offices for all major league franchises including general manager Matt Klentak and his department: They are buyers for the first time since 2011.
Hunting for victories:
The Philadelphia Phillies have contacted every selling organization, have listened to asking prices, and made offers and suggestions. Like signing Jake Arrieta, Klentak has gauged the value of the trade pieces, the price he is willing to pay, and the competition’s proposals.
IN OTHER WORDS: “Comfort and familiarity were wonderful, but they also dulled passion and excitement. Predictability and habit made surprises almost impossible.” – Nicholas Sparks
Klentak is again looking for a specific player like he did during the offseason with Arrieta, but this time he’s after a strong cleanup hitter to slot between Odubel Herrera and Carlos Santana. Yes, it’s Manny Machado. But while the cost must be worthwhile, Maikel Franco and Scott Kingery are still in the picture.
On the other hand, a left-handed reliever with closer potential is a minor swap, which could be part of a deal coming to fruition. Additionally, management prefers a rental arm to evaluate reinking for 2019. And if the southpaw is effective against other contenders, he might be a keeper.
Due to having more starters than spots, acquiring a veteran rotation arm doesn’t appear to be urgent. And Klentak will only be willing to move some solid prospects to add a bat: a pressing need.
From the active 25, Klentak won’t trade a left-side infielder without having a replacement for ’19. And if the GM deals with the Baltimore Orioles for Machado, he would play short, and Kingery could be a super sub or handle right field if he forces his way into the everyday eight.
For now, right-hander Enyel De Los Santos will be the rotation option for an injury or ineffectiveness. Or he could find a spot as a setup man if the Phils are unable to pick up a quality reliever. And although he filled in for Zach Eflin on July 15, he’ll return to the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs.
As for consummating a strategic trade, Klentak could finalize a swap for Machado with or without Zach Britton. And while everything must go right to acquire both players, the point man has pieces Baltimore likes besides righty Sixto Sanchez. Getting and asking are different!
Changes on the horizon:
Regarding the rotation, the Phillies have four starters with acceptable results against postseason hopefuls. In fact, they also have Nick Pivetta and De Los Santos in addition to Jerad Eickhoff, who could be a long reliever if he returns from the disabled list.
The bullpen, on the other hand, is short one late-inning fireman to handle October opponents, and Britton is Klentak’s rental preference. Yes, the market has closers on also-ran teams, but they are under contract for two years or more. Translation: Prospects required!
To improve the offense, Kapler forced Franco to wait for good pitches by hitting at the bottom of the order. So far, so good! He’s averaging .352 with four bombs and 11 RBIs since June 23 and getting opportunities to slot higher in the lineup.
According to Klentak in a recent TV interview, he stated his sartisfaction with Franco. The decision-maker also believes the third baseman could be with the club next summer as well. Basically, the formula is talent and motivation will equal worthwhile production.
As a backup plan, second sacker Whit Merrifield, 29, is a super sub and can also handle the hot corner, center field and right field. He’s batting .307 but hit .288 in 2017 and .282 in 2016. Additionally, he belted 19 homers with 78 RBIs in ’17. And right field needs more offense.
While the O’s are asking for a future ace, no club will agree to that for a two-month rental. But they like right-hander Adonis Medina with the Single-A Advanced Clearwater Threshers. And though he is right behind Sanchez prospect-wise, that may change after a difficult first half: 8-3, a 4.92 ERA and five duds out of 15 starts.
Meanwhile, dollars are also a factor because the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers do not want to exceed the $197 million competitive-balance threshold. Both clubs must reset the penalty percentages to avoid paying 50 percent of any amount surpassing that ceiling. Ergo, trade more prospects.
Buckle up:
With the second half’s arrival, each National League division has at least two teams battling for first place. The red pinstripes have a half-game advantage over the Atlanta Braves. However, four games separate the top six franchises.
As for Atlanta, don’t get too excited by their drop in the standings of late. They are 7-8 since June 29 against playoff hopefuls and doing as well as the Phils did. Ahead, the Braves have seven of nine contests versus clubs in the hunt. In other words, they will be successful with a 4-3 mark for 11-11.
Like the good guys with a 21-21 record during October previews, Atlanta isn’t going anywhere. Basically, they’re playing .500 ball: The competition is tougher than usual and exposes an organization’s glaring weaknesses. To illustrate, the Yankees took two of three from the Phillies and the Braves.
ONLY YOU: “I’m not a player, I’m an alien. My focus is on winning championships. I don’t focus on anything else. Aliens only want to win championships.” – Metta World Peace
If you’ve never been through a pennant or wild-card race, the highs are exciting with a healthy helping of dodged-a-bullet relief, and the lows are a kill shot. Then, you wake up the following morning to do it all over again. And, now, you have five other teams to scoreboard watch.
With six in-it franchises and four others close behind, management wants to seize the opportunity and add a star. And Klentak in his automobile interview was not only out of his element but an elated passenger also. Why? Well, co-owner John S. Middleton had a request for his GM. Make a splash!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Plate-discipline comparison to Phillies through July 19.
- Machado: 12.4 K% and 10.7 BB% with a .384 OBP.
- Santana: 13.8 K% and 18.2 BB% with a .351 OBP.
- Hoskins: 25.1 K% and 13.8 BB% with a .363 OBP.
- Franco: 13.5 K% and 6.9 BB% with a .317 OBP.
- Merrifield: 16.6 K% and 9.2 BB% with a .378 OBP.
According to Fangraphs, low walk rates are only acceptable for players with exceptional power numbers. Here are plate-discipline comparisons.
| Rating | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|
| Excellent | 10.0% | 15.0% |
| Great | 12.5% | 12.5% |
| Above Average | 16.0% | 10.0% |
| Average | 20.0% | 8.0% |
| Below Average | 22.0% | 7.0% |
| Poor | 25.0% | 5.5% |
| Awful | 27.5% | 4.0% |
Stats through July 19:
Infielders:
- Machado, 26: 95 Gms., 411 PA, a .313 Avg., a .384 OBP, a .566 SLG, a .253 ISO, a .311 BABIP, 23 HR, 64 RBI, a .950 OPS and a 3.6 fWAR.
- Franco, almost 26: 85 Gms., 303 PA, a .269 Avg., a .317 OBP, a .459 SLG, a .190 ISO, a .272 BABIP, 13 HR, 47 RBI, a .776 OPS and a 0.7 fWAR (Phillies).
- Merrifield, 29.5: 91 Gms., 403 PA, a .307 Avg., a .378 OBP, a .434 SLG, a .127 ISO, a .362 BABIP, 5 HR, 42 RBI, an .812 OPS and a 2.8 fWAR.
Relievers:
- Dominguez, 23.5: 28 Gms., 33 2/3 Inn., 1.60 ERA, 9 Saves, 10 Holds, 1 BS, a 1.69 FIP, a 2.37 xFIP, a 2.01 SIERA, a 1.5 fWAR and a 0.65 WHIP (Phillies).
- Britton, 30.5: 15 Gms., 14 2/3 Inn., 3.68 ERA, 4 Saves, 1 Hold, 1 BS, a 4.30 FIP, a 3.86 xFIP, a 4.16 SIERA, a 0.0 fWAR and a 1.36 WHIP.
- Famila, 28.5: 40 Gms., 42 2/3 Inn., 2.88 ERA, 17 Saves, 1 Hold, 4 BS, a 2.53 FIP, a 3.65 xFIP, a 3.34 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.23 WHIP.
Threshers starter:
- Medina, 21.5: 15 Gms., 71 1/3 Inn., 8-3, a 4.92 ERA, a 4.39 FIP, a 3.72 xFIP and a 1.33 WHIP.
Next: Phillies: Revising expectations upward
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