What should the Rays expect from Hoby Milner?
The Tampa Bay Rays acquired a reliever from a playoff club. What should they expect from the lefty?
After getting designated for assignment by the Philadelphia Phillies earlier in the week, the Tampa Bay Rays completed a trade to acquire left-handed reliever Hoby Milner for cash considerations over the weekend.
The southpaw made his Rays debut briskly, appearing in action the next day. In 2/3 of an inning, he struck out two batters while allowing no runs to score. He did issue a walk but held the Minnesota Twins hitless in the outing.
It was an extremely small snippet of what he is capable of but nonetheless encouraging. He has a rough go of it in Philly this year, although it came in an admittedly small sample. Milner was limited to just 4 and 2/3 innings of work.
He appeared in ten games to the tune of an unpleasant 7.71 ERA and 6.79 FIP. The 27-year-old walked almost as many batters (3) as he struck out (4) but, again, it was in less than 5 innings.
Last season, he was exposed to a much larger sample and relished the opportunity. In 31 and 1/3 innings, he compiled an impressive 2.01 ERA, however, it was paired with a not too inspiring 4.50 FIP. This suggests that there was an element of luck which kept his run prevention number at such a low mark. His 6.32 K/9 and 4.60 BB/9 were both bad and decidedly the reason he was not given much of an opportunity with the Phillies this year.
While he has experienced ebbs and flows in the strikeout department during his pro career, this is not a guy who can reliably punch out close to a batter an inning. This reduces his value, compounded by his command problems over the past two seasons. Instead, he has to put an enormous amount of trust in his defense to lift him up. The 2012 7th-round pick did induce lots of weak contact last year but he is not a groundball guzzler and does not yield that many infield fly balls.
It is understandable why Philadelphia was not bullish on him. Then again, it was also understandable why the Tampa Bay Rays took a flier on him. He is a lefty specialist, after all, coming to the team with pronounced platoon splits.
During his short-lived MLB career, he has held left-handed hitters to a lowly .171 average and .238 slugging percentage in 23 innings. No one needs to tell you that is good.
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Meanwhile, against right-handed hitters, he has been tacked for a pretty concerning .367 average and .559 slug in 13 and 2/3 innings.
Against left-handed hitters, he is an evidently valuable piece but the majority of MLB hitters swing from the other side of the plate. Surely, he could carve out a role as a lefty specialist for the team. Still, the Rays utilize more bullpen innings than any team (446 1/3 IP this year), so this fit is a little dubious.
The team does not need all of their arms to go more than one inning but Milner may not even able to provide that. He does, however, have three minor league options remaining, giving them flexibility with him.
In terms of his pitch mix, he predominantly uses a sinker with a pretty good curveball and changeup in his periphery. The sinker gets a decent amount of groundballs but not as many one would expect. Plus, it almost never induces any whiffs. His changeup is his big whiff pitch yet he rarely utilizes it.
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The Tampa Bay Rays did not have to give much up to get this lefty specialist. He has experienced some success at the big-leagues, even if it was driven by unsustainable (for lack of a better term) luck behind him. It is an interesting move for a team who uses their bullpen as unconventionally as they do. Moreover, it will be even more interesting to see how they incorporate him into that mix.