Can the Houston Astros claim their second-straight World Series?
The Houston Astros captured their first-ever World Series championship last season. They seemed poised again for another deep postseason run. But will they earn back-to-back titles?
No team has done it since the 2000 New York Yankees. Only the Philadelphia Phillies came close to accomplishing the feat this decade. But the Houston Astros have an opportunity to claim back-to-back World series titles.
And thus far, they are in good shape to at least contend for another one.
However, the club’s talent isn’t the only variable in the algorithm. A more competitive league – and division – can deny Houston entry into the Fall Classic. Second-half slumps, injuries and blockbuster trades also influence what happens this time of year.
Nevertheless, the Astros look as capable as they were last season, if not even more capable. On the surface, Houston sits third in the overall MLB standings, only behind the Yankees and Red Sox.
Yet, when everything is taken into account, it’s difficult to bet against the Astros.
Most defending champions since 2013 hovered around the .500 mark at the midway point in the season. However, as pitcher Dallas Keuchel promised, Houston didn’t endure a World Series hangover.
Records of recent defending World Series champs at All-Star break:
— Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) July 15, 2018
2018 Astros: 64-35
2017 Cubs: 43-45
2016 Royals: 45-43
2015 Giants 46-43
2014 Red Sox: 43-52
2013 Giants: 43-51
2012 Cardinals: 46-40
2011 Giants: 52-40
2010 Yankees: 56-32
Only the Red Sox boast a better, more productive offense. However, the Astros sport the best pitching staff in the league by a large margin. Houston also possesses the largest run difference in the league.
Essentially, all of the ingredients – statistics – for the Astros result in success. And even if the front office refrains from making any big moves prior to the trade deadline, Houston will still be a major contender.
Of course, arguments can be made to discourage that belief. The Dodgers’ recent transaction
Ultimately, the second half clearly has great importance on a team’s postseason run. But based on the results from the first half of the year, Houston looks poised for another deep run.
Is the offense better?
Although the Astros rank second in runs this season, they possessed greater numbers last season.
But that’s not necessarily a surprise. More than 10 players slugged at least 10 home runs, and Houston combined for a .282 average.
Five players sported an average greater than .300 in 2017. So far, just Yuli Gurriel and Jose Altuve own an average above that threshold. It makes a major difference.
Some Houston players have improved considerably, such as Alex Bregman and Max Stassi. However, other guys are on the decline. Some examples are outfielders George Springer and Josh Reddick.
But MLB teams this seasons currently have a lower average than they did last year. The .008 points seems like a minute amount, but it is still important.
Certain variables must been analyzed when looking at the Astros, especially inconsistency.
Designated hitter Evan Gattis enjoyed one of the hottest stretches in franchise history throughout June, accumulating 30 RBIs. But prior to May 10, the former catcher boasted a measly .191 average and .539 OPS. His numbers in July look similar, though he offered more power this month.
Springer is in a similar boat, enduring a brutal slump. His slash throughout June was .190/.308/.350, while his slash this month so far is .220/.329/.240. The lackluster stretch pushed his overall average below .250 and OPS under .750. They were at .281 and .826 prior to June.
There is also the Carlos Correa effect, as the starting shortstop has been on the disabled list since the end of June. Yet, the Astros still own a productive offense without him.
Although the numbers prove this year’s offense isn’t as intimidating as the one from last season, it doesn’t have to be. That’s essentially because the pitching staff is much better in 2018.
What about the pitching?
Houston’s starting rotation enjoyed arguably the most dominant start to the season in MLB history.
One major advantage the Astros had in the first half is its crew’s durability. All five of the club’s starting pitchers avoided injuries and pitched more than 110 innings. All five also boasted ERAs below 4.00.
No other team in the bigs currently possess a rotation that efficient and consistent. Therefore, it’s clear why Houston seems equipped for another 100-win season if its rotation can remain healthy.
Moreover, all five are the epitome of stability. The Astros have 65 quality starts this season – out of 99 games started. That’s nine more than the next-best team in the Brewers, which is a surprise in itself.
Houston’s starting staff ranks above the rest in essentially every category. With this rotation, there doesn’t seem to be a limit in success.
The relief staff is in a similar boat, as it ranks in the top two compared to every other team in the league. Frankly, the bullpen hasn’t had to be as efficient due to the the rotation’s dominance.
Nevertheless, Astros relievers own superior numbers compared to last year’s squad by a significant margin.
Last year’s relief crew posted an ERA above 4.00, which ranked in the middle of the pack. This year’s been different for a variety of reasons.
Collin McHugh’s transition into a reliever resulted in essentially All-Star caliber numbers. Meanwhile, Hector Rondon seems like a steal of the offseason after emerging as the team’s new closer.
Also, the Astros still possess hybrid relievers, such as Chris Devenski and Brad Peacock. Both posted strong numbers once again while claiming saves as well.
Overall, it’s a much stronger pitching staff, and coach Brent Strom has worked wonders with just about every hurler on the club.
Who could stop them?
There are only a handful of teams regarded as elite this season. Nevertheless, the handful of teams have above-adequate arsenals capable of taking home a title this year.
The Los Angeles Dodgers, Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs all seem like the prime contenders in the National League. Atlanta and Arizona can’t be counted out either.
However, Houston wouldn’t see any of the five teams until the main event at the end of October. Thus, the main focus is on American League contenders, which will pose a problem for the Astros.
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Boston owns the best offense in the league behind a two-man wrecking crew of Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez. Nevertheless, Xander Bogaerts and Mitch Moreland compliment their power with consistency.
Even though the Red Sox don’t boast a strong starting rotation, it still ranks in the top 10, thanks primarily to Chris Sale and Rick Porcello.
If the two powerhouses meet again in the playoffs, it will likely be much more heated than last year’s rout by the Astros.
Another AL East club, the Yankees, offer the greatest threat to A.J. Hinch and company. What gives New York the advantage over Boston is that it already flourished against Houston earlier this year.
The Yankees hut down the Astros’ intimidating offense – a 207/.250/.304 slash across seven games. Although, Houston didn’t necessarily flounder on the mound, allowing just seven more runs than its counterpart.
Nonetheless, Astros fans should worry more about the Yankees than the Red Sox, especially because they possess the best bullpen in baseball. And they own a powerful offense.
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However, Houston still matches up well with just about any opponent in baseball, so they have considerably good odds to hoist the World Series trophy once again.