Atlanta Braves: Three storylines to watch in the second half
The Atlanta Braves entered the MLB All-Star Break as one of baseball’s most fascinating stories for the 2018 season.
The Atlanta Braves second-place standing in the NL East – by a mere half game behind the equally-fascinating Philadelphia Phillies – and overall performance has far surpassed preseason expectations.
For most Atlanta Braves fans, being in this position is a huge surprise, and they’re happy to be along for the ride, seeing the young team grow in leaps and bounds, reminding of teams like 1991 that really could be around to compete for many years with the young core of players along with the veteran leadership.
Instead, the Atlanta Braves are now primed to make a few moves this summer that could lead to playoff baseball in Atlanta for the first time in 5 years. As the second half gets set to launch, and MLB’s July 31st trade deadline quickly approaches, it’s a good time to assess what concerns need to be addressed in order for the Braves to once again experience the sweetness that is October baseball.
Well over three months into the 2018 campaign, some areas stand out more so than others as problematic and most definitely need to see improvement in order for Atlanta to make a strong playoff push. While disrupting the clubhouse that Brian Snitker and Alex Anthopolous have built and taking away too much from the future will be avoided, what can the Braves do to be prepared for success in the postseason?
Next: Starting Rotation
1. Back End of the Starting Rotation
You couldn’t ask for more than what All-Star Mike Foltynewicz and lefty Sean Newcomb have had to offer this season. Per Fangraphs, the two young Braves’ arms are in the top 12 in starter’s ERA among National League pitchers this year, with Foltynewicz at 2.66 and Newcomb at 3.51.
Just as impressive is the veteran Anibal Sanchez, who has seemingly revitalized his career with a 2.60 ERA in 11 starts. The 34-year old has filled the role as the “steady presence” in a youthful rotation, hurling 6+ innings in 6 of his 11 starts to take some of the pressure of the often-used bullpen.
It’s after those three aforementioned starters that the rotation is filled with questions.
Perhaps the single biggest X-factor to Atlanta’s potential success in 2018 is Julio Teheran. Once the uncontested “ace” of the staff, Teheran has seen his performance take a dip in each of the last two seasons. In 2018, he’s walking well over 4 batters per nine innings while also having the highest home run to fly ball ratio of his career.
More 2014 or 2016-like numbers from Julio would be a tremendous shot in the arm for the back end of this Braves’ rotation, but will that happen?
For what figures to be the final spot of the rotation, there are a plethora of options, but also a plethora of inexperience and/or injury concerns.
Luiz Gohara or Max Fried seem primed to be the frontrunners as options to begin the second half as the fifth starter, but both lack the ideal experience to help a rotation make it to the postseason.
On the injury front, promising rookie Mike Soroka was named to the 60-day DL in late June and will be lucky to pitch again this season, while the oft-injured veteran Brandon McCarthy also was sent to the DL the last week of June for knee tendinitis. Fried has also seen injury concerns of his own, with a stint on the 10-day DL due to a blister.
True, the Braves could make a move for a starting pitcher before the trade deadline to stabilize the bottom of the rotation, but if they don’t, they most certainly need at least one or two of the options to show improvement and good health down the stretch to win the East.
Next: Ender's play
2. The Play of Ender Inciarte
On the whole, the Braves’ lineup this season has been strong.
All-Stars and MVP candidates Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis have been models of consistency, while fellow All-Star Ozzie Albies has been very good more often than not.
Rookie Ronald Acuna, Jr. can expect to see the usual ebbs and flows that come with being a newcomer to the big leagues, but his ceiling remains extremely high.
One of the lineup regulars, however, that has fallen far short of meeting his usual standard at the plate is Ender Inciarte.
While remaining above-average with the glove in centerfield, Inciarte’s bat went cold for the large part of the first half, with a meager BA/OBP/SLG triple-slash line of .241/.312/.337. That line is nowhere near the numbers Inciarte put up in his 2017 All-Star season that saw him hit .304 and get on base 35% of the time.
With Inciarte’s struggles, the Braves have had to some shuffling in the lineup and, to this point, have yet to find a stable leadoff candidate.
Looking up and down the lineup regulars, there doesn’t seem to be that ideal fit for the top spot this year, as the best on-base hitters (Freeman, Markakis) seem firmly entrenched in the middle-of-the-order spots.
True, the Braves are 4th in the National League in runs scored and were first in that category for a better part of the first half, so maybe they don’t need a game-changing move like the Dodgers just made. Perhaps they can manage just fine without a prototypical leadoff man.
But facing a difficult September schedule or a dominant starting pitcher in a playoff series, they would most certainly benefit from Inciarte reverting back to his career norms and deepening the lineup. Inciarte’s speed and base-stealing capability is a great weapon, but as the old baseball adage goes: you can’t steal first base.
Next: The Pen
3. The Bullpen
You knew this one was coming.
Closer Arodys Vizcaino was just put on the shelf again due to shoulder inflammation, while AJ Minter, Sam Freeman, Dan Winkler and Shane Carle have all appeared in at least 38 games so far in 2018.
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The Atlanta bullpen has put up rather unimpressive numbers as a unit, compiling a 4.24 ERA (19th in MLB). Couple that lackluster performance with Vizcaino’s injury concern and the increasing usage of others in the middle-relief corps, this bunch could use some help.
MLB.com’s Mark Bowman comments that the Vizcaino news is especially alarming.
Vizcaino missed a little more than two weeks when his right shoulder discomfort increased to the point he had to be placed on the DL near the end of June. The Braves anticipated he would battle soreness over the remainder of the season, but it is certainly concerning to see him return to the DL just three appearances after being activated.
This figures to most certainly be the prime area in which the Braves will seek to improve over the next week and a half leading up to MLB’s Trade Deadline.
With a rotation that already has question marks in the bottom half, the Braves undoubtedly need the bullpen to be more of a force in the second half to keep up with the Phillies and stay ahead of the Nationals. They’re going to see their fair share of work.
Next: CTTP's midseason top 150 prospects
That’s three main areas to watch with the Atlanta Braves as the second half gets underway.