The blazing Pittsburgh Pirates are back in contention
With low expectations coming into the season, the Pittsburgh Pirates have been one of the surprises of the 2018 season
Coming into the 2018 season, the Pittsburgh Pirates were the butt of numerous jokes. They had traded away star pieces in Andrew McCutchen and Gerrit Cole in the offseason and the return packages were perceived as light.
They got off to a blazing start in the first two months of the season, however, topping out with a 30.7 percent Fangraphs playoff odds on May 17th. In fact, on that day, they usurped the Milwaukee Brewers, as the team held better playoff chances.
Fast forward to July 7th, though, and the Pirates playoff odds cratered to a near negligible 0.7 percent chance. Pittsburgh had lost five games in a row, dropping to a 40-48 record. They were 10 games out of a Wild Card spot and 12.5 behind the Brewers in the NL Central.
Those preseason jokes started to be justified, as the team kept slumping. The penniless Pirates were performing as expected, trying to fight off the Cincinnati Reds for last place. People started to abandon hope and briskly attached the “seller” label to its name.
Then, of course, the Pirates surge began. Since July 7th, the team has resounded with a 10-1 record, including eight straight victories as of this writing. Pittsburgh is now just five games out of a Wild Card spot, cutting its deficit in half. Additionally, the club’s playoff odds resurrected from the dead to 10.0 percent, which still is not great, but gives them a fighting chance.
During this stretch, the Bucs have faced the Philadelphia Phillies, Washington Nationals, Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds. That is not an easy slew of teams by any measure, making it all the more impressive. The team even managed to sweep the Brew Crew in a five-game series from July 12-July 15.
Over this hot streak, the team has excelled on both sides of the ball. They rank 7th in team wRC+ in baseball with a 117 mark. Meanwhile, the team’s pitching has done even better with the league’s best 2.39 ERA since July 7th. This is by far the best in the league, ahead of the second place Dodgers (2.69 ERA) by a considerable margin. The rotation and bullpen have both been exceptional.
Felipe Velazquez, Edgar Santana, Kyle Crick, Clay Holmes, Trevor Williams and Richard Rodriguez have combined to face 139 batters during this period and have not allowed an earned run.
Woah.
Moreover, starters Jameson Taillon and Nick Kingham have tossed 36 and 2/3 innings with a 39 to 7 K:BB (strikeout to walk ratio).
On the offensive side of the ball, Starling Marte, David Freese, Josh Bell and Corey Dickerson all have an OPS over 1.000 and a wRC+ over 150. Marte has belted five homers, while Gregory Polanco and Dickerson have contributed four respectively.
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Pittsburgh is firing on all cylinders and deserve a copious amount of credit for this recent stretch. In terms of sustainability, the team has a -10 run differential and 48-51 BaseRuns record this season. Putting it another way, based on how they have performed, the squad should be a little worse. Fangraphs projects they will go 48-51 the rest of the way, finishing around the .500 mark.
Obviously, baseball projections have fairly substantial error bars. This team has put itself in a decent position to be competitive and should certainly challenge the .500 mark. It does not seem likely Pittsburgh will add at the deadline, either. The Buccos will most likely stand pat but, then again, they are an unconventional group in a weird position as the trade deadline looms.
Regardless, the Pittsburgh Pirates have put their franchise back on the map with the majority of July in the books. Most people would have scoffed at the notion the Pirates would be a competitor with roughly two months left of the season.
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It has been a year defined by hot and cold stretches, teetering between the extremes. The Pittsburgh Pirates are probably not a playoff team but they have outperformed expectations. There remains a heartbeat for this team’s 2018 hopes, which was nearly inaudible two weeks ago.