As Braves rumors persist near the MLB Trade Deadline, the Atlanta Braves GM has stated that the focus would be on controllable players, not rentals. That could open up markets not really being mentioned right now.
With the team’s excellent performance continuing deep into July, Braves rumors of moves to shore up the team for a potential playoff run have become quite common. However, in a discussion with Jim Bowden of MLB Network Radio, Atlanta Braves General Manager Alex Anthopoulos stated that the team was looking for “players we can control rather than rentals.”
So, who could that be? What controllable players on the market would the Braves have interest in. There have been Braves rumors in a few, but we’ll explore some others that are going to be very interesting to watch as the MLB Trade Deadline nears that perhaps are off the current radar for most teams – most teams that don’t have the Atlanta Braves farm system to work with.
Chris Archer, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
We’ll start with one that has all-too-often populated Braves rumors and been the focus of talk on Braves Twitter – Chris Archer of the Rays. My feelings on Archer have been published previously, and I don’t really see anything in 2018 that has changed on that front.
To update the article from December, there remains a significant split in the value of Archer in 2018 in fWAR and bWAR, with his fWAR standing at 1.7 and his bWAR at 0.6. That bWAR puts him in a tie for 190th among all pitchers this season. Even his fWAR is 47th among all pitchers.
Brooks Baseball has shown that he’s throwing his circle change even harder this year, which essentially leaves no distinction between his slider and change in velocity, and leads to the hitter being able to sit on things and swing hard, which means plenty of swing and miss, but also plenty of big contact when contact is made. Accordingly, he’s seeing a career-high rate of hard-hit balls, with 41.6% of all balls put in play classified as “hard hit”.
I’ve mentioned many times that Archer reminds me heavily of Ervin Santana before he went to the Royals, found a sinker, and became a completely different pitcher. That change seemed to get him to trust the idea of variety in velocity, and he has since been a pitcher with very good reliability in the middle of a rotation. That’s where I would value Archer. Not as a top of the rotation guy, but as a very good #3 or mid-tier #2. With his contract, that’s still a very valuable trade chip.
The issue is that the Rays are not shopping him like a mid-rotation guy. They’re shopping Archer as an ace, as they should. Braves rumors have had big offers, with 2-3 top 10 prospects in one of the best farm systems in all of baseball going for Archer, and to me that’s just way, way too much.
If Braves rumors are correct, the team has been very hesitant to come near the Rays price tag on Archer, and that is probably wise. That could lead into the other guys on here that really haven’t been discussed all that much.