Should the Baltimore Orioles trade Jonathan Schoop?
As the Baltimore Orioles plummet to the bottom of the league standings and toward the #1 overall pick in 2019, should they make even bigger moves in their tear-down?
The Baltimore Orioles are neck-and-neck with the Kansas City Royals for the honorary distinction of being the worst team in the MLB. Each team is subtracting major pieces from their club, as they make a late-season push to outdo the other.
In baseball, there is only one winner and 29 losers. With that said, there is also only one team who finishes last in the standings and gets the first overall draft pick in 2019. Orioles or Royals? Don’t count out the Chicago White Sox just yet either.
According to Fangraphs projected standings, though, the Orioles are the team who will likely finish at that bottom of the barrel. After all, they do have the worst record in the majors as of this writing (31-74).
They have already cashed in on a half year of Manny Machado and Zach Britton in an attempt to replenish a desolate farm system which is devoid of international signees. To the O’s credit, it appears they got a fair package for Machado. They also somehow managed to attain one of the Yankees top-ten prospects for Zach Britton, who has not really been all that good since 2016.
As the trade deadline continues to draw closer and closer, Baltimore should be listening on everyone.
seems destined to wind up wearing a different uniform in the coming days while
, in a contract year, is likely getting shopped heavily.
Starting pitcher Kevin Gausman should definitely be traded at some point. He has two and a half years of control left and has been a serviceable arm for many years. The sooner, the better, probably.
This brings us to Jonathan Schoop, perhaps their most promising trade asset. The second basemen will become a free agent in 2020, so he has one and half years on his contract remaining. His extra year means he has more value than the half-year rentals the O’s have been shipping off.
The problem is that their star position player is in the midst of a down year. In 2017, Schoop belted 32 homers with a stellar .293 AVG/.338 OBP/.503 SLG slash line in 675 plate appearances. He posted an accompanying 121 wRC+ and 3.8 fWAR that season.
This year, however, he has fallen considerably, featuring a poor .244 AVG/.274 OBP/.442 SLG clip and a 0.7 fWAR. After previous seasons of better numbers, it is logical to assume this year’s lack of production is a blip. Consequently, perhaps it would behoove the Orioles to wait and see if he can establish his value with a hot second half?
Well, while Schoop does have an unsustainable .264 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) dragging his slash line down, it is not clear that he is just a case of poor luck.
Over at Baseball Savant, the 26-year-old’s quality of contact has taken a significant step back. His xwOBA (expected wOBA) is .281, which is in the bottom four percent of the league, while his actual wOBA is .306. By how he has hit the baseball in 2018 (factoring in strikeouts and walks), he should be doing even worse.
Last season, his Hard Hit% (percentage of hard hit baseballs) was 37.2 percent but this season it has fallen to 31.9 percent. He is barreling less baseballs and has a lower average exit velocity, too. Oddly, his batted ball outcomes (fly ball, ground ball, line drive, etc.) have remained pretty much the same.
It is not immediately clear what has caused his diminished offensive abilities. He has been hitting baseballs, on average, at essentially the same angle as before. It is a pretty startling drop off.
There could be an argument that maybe the oblique injury he suffered early in the year is still nagging him. If that were case, most of this could be explained. Still, 2017 was probably the best version of Jonathan Schoop we will ever see. He had a .330 BABIP with (again) an xwOBA that was lower than his actual wOBA.
All of this must be taken into consideration when thinking about dealing Schoop. If he is a good candidate to bounce back, then it would be wise to hold onto him and wait until they can sell high. Still, with every passing day, he gets closer to free agency. Returns for a year and half are typically better than a year or a half year of a player.
The Baltimore Orioles are not going to be competitive in 2019. If the Orioles decide to keep him for the rest of the season, they would be delaying the inevitable, like they did with Machado.
A major impediment to the maximization of a return package is the fact there were and are so many quality infielders available. The Phillies traded for
and the D’Backs for
earlier this week. Further, the Brewers, which seemingly
had interest in Schoop and Gausman
, traded for
yesterday to fill their void.
Brian Dozier and Ian Kinsler remain on the market and can be had at a cheaper price. They both are free agents at season’s end and provide similar value to Schoop.
As stated, most contenders with an infield need have already gotten their guy. The competitive teams with a potential infield need at this point creates a very short list.
The Boston Red Sox have been rumored to be looking for a second basemen but probably are more interested in a half-year rental. Boston has lots of money committed for 2019 and lots of expensive players to re-sign (Chris Sale, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Craig Kimbrel (?) and JD. Martinez (?)). Schoop is currently making $8.5 mil in his second year of arbitration.
New York has been rumored to be interested in guys like Manny Machado and Mike Moustakas. This has been kind of a head-scratcher because the infield seems pretty filled with Miguel Andujar, Didi Gregorious, Gleyber Torres and Greg Bird. They could use the depth and have the resources, but the right-handed second baseman does not seem like a wise investment for them.
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Other contending teams that come to mind are the Atlanta Braves and Pittsburgh Pirates. Both seem hesitant to buy, however. The Braves do not have an overwhelming need to upgrade the infield (Johan Camargo is doing fine) and the Pirates are not in an great competitive spot.
With Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa on the shelf, perhaps the Houston Astros seek some infield insurance? They can certainly get better value for a contingency, though.
Unless a major infield injury befalls a contending team in the next few days, there is no clear fit for Schoop. As such, even if he loses trade value with the passing of time, the Orioles should and will probably hold onto him for the rest of the season.
Next. Possible destinations for Adam Jones. dark
Perhaps putting more distance between himself and the oblique injury will get Schoop closer to his 2017 level of production. It is not something that seems probable but the Baltimore Orioles do not have better options at this point. Rebuilding takes time.