Rookie of the Year: Who takes home the NL award?

Brian Anderson

Brian Anderson has had an incredible year to this point in the season. The young Marlins outfielder has produced much more at the plate than was expected of him.

Anderson was considered a good prospect, but one that would become an average player in the big leagues eventually, not an above average one immediately. Currently, he leads all National League rookies in fWAR with 2.6 and trails only J.T. Realmuto for the Marlins team lead. He is tied for third among NL rookies in hitting with a 119 wRC+, but what sets Anderson apart is that he does pretty much everything well on the baseball diamond.

He has been a well above average hitter this year, he is an above average defender in the outfield and he is roughly an average base runner. He’s not a burner by any means, but Anderson has enough speed to succeed in the outfield and to handle himself on the bases. In a season full of disappointment, Anderson has been a pleasant surprise.

His excellent production has been somewhat surprising but is in no way a fluke. Anderson currently carries a robust .344 wOBA but his expected wOBA is even higher at .372 which puts him in the top 50 or so hitters in all of baseball. He also sports a very reasonable .337 Babip which means even if he has had some batted ball luck it hasn’t been much.

Overall, Anderson is an exciting young player that has surpassed all expectations, and has out himself in the discussion for the Rookie of the Year award. Heshould be a core member of the Marlins for years to come.

Jack Flaherty

Probably the least famous member of a ridiculous Harvard Westlake High School pitching staff, Jack Flaherty is beginning to make a name for himself in 2018.

Flaherty was drafted at the back of the first round in 2014 with only modest expectations, but he has gotten off to a better start to his career than his high school teammates, Lucas Giolito and Max Fried. He has dominated the National League this year with his excellent mix of four quality pitches. None of his pitches are particularly nasty, but he mixes his pitches well and gets good extension toward the plate which allows his velocity to play up. This has taken all of Flaherty’s stuff to another level giving him one of the top strikeout rates in all of baseball.

He is second among NL rookies in strikeout rate and K-BB%, which are two of the best indicators of pitching performance. He also does a good job at keeping the ball on the ground and has an inflated home run per fly ball rate which suggests he has been unlucky as far as keeping the ball in the park.

If Flaherty’s first full season is any indication, he is going to be a fixture in the Cardinals rotation for the next several years and may even develop into one of the league’s best starting pitchers.

Ronald Acuña

Ronald Acuña came into this season as the number one prospect in all of baseball by most publications and the clear favorite to win the National League Rookie of the Year award.

While he is still in contention, he is no longer the favorite due to no fault of his own. Acuña has not disappointed at all in his first season in the big leagues. While he has had some ups and downs, the overall product has been fantastic for the 20-year-old phenom. Acuña is tied with Anderson with a 119 wRC+ which is just incredible for someone of his age, especially while playing meaningful games in the middle of a playoff race.

While his bat is where most of the value has been to this point in the season, Acuña has made an impact with every facet of his game. Acuña ranks top 3 among NL rookies in every Fangraphs base running metric, ranks seventh in all of baseball in sprint speed and trails only Harrison Bader among rookie outfielders in Outs Above Average. This young superstar really does it all and is quickly becoming a key cog in the Atlanta Braves playoff run.

Acuña has an outside shot at winning the Rookie of the Year award as it stand now, but if he puts the Braves on his back and carries them to the postseason there may be enough of a narrative to propel him to the award.

Walker Buehler

Walker Buehler currently leads all National League rookie pitchers with 1.4 fWAR through only 74 innings.

The young pitcher out of Vanderbilt has been very effective in his short time in the big leagues striking out 26.3% of batters while only walking 5.3%. That gives him a K-BB% that ranks in the top 20 in all of baseball. Buehler ranks 2nd in ERA-, 2nd in FIP-, and 1st in xFIP- among NL rookies, showing that he has been the best rookie pitcher in the National League.

Buehler doesn’t have a big frame, but he does have big stuff. He throws his high spin fastball in the mid to upper 90s and locates it well. He also mixes in a cutter, sinker, slider, curve and change-up, all of which are above average or better pitches.

Buehler has been treated carefully since undergoing Tommy John surgery shortly after being drafted by the Dodgers in the first round in 2015. The Dodgers are starting to loosen the reins on him a bit, but they likely still won’t push him too hard down the stretch this season. The lack of big innings down the stretch will probably keep him from being able to put up the numbers required to win the Rookie of the Year award.

Regardless of whether he wins or not, he will rank high in the voting and should take the next step over the next couple of years into becoming one of the better pitchers in the league.

Juan Soto

Juan Soto has been one of the biggest stories in all of baseball this season. Amazingly, Soto is only 19 years old and started the year in low A ball. He came up to the big leagues surprisingly this season to provide outfield depth for a depleted Nationals outfield, but hit so well that he won a permanent spot in the Nationals lineup. Soto’s assent to stardom came so quickly that he only played in 68 minor league games above rookie ball before debuting in the majors.

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The shocking thing about his success to this point has been his plate discipline. Soto has walked in 16.5% of plate appearances this year while only striking out in 17.6%. This is the kind of strike zone awareness that you might see from seasons veterans, but a 19-year-old kid with very little playing experience doing this is unheard of.

It is not all about the plate discipline with Soto either. Soto is slashing .310/.424/.556 giving him a robust 161 wRC+, easily the highest among NL rookies. Soto’s batting line puts him on pace to have one of the top 15 offensive rookie seasons since expansion. That is before you factor in that he is only 19 years old. Soto’s 161 wRC+ would be the highest mark of any 19-year-old in the history of baseball. In 1928, Mel Ott had a 140 wRC+ and that has stood as the best 19-year-old offensive season ever since. Soto is the far and away favorite to win Rookie of the Year with his historic season.

All of these players have had excellent seasons and should develop into great players in the National League. Juan Soto and Ronald Acuña even look to be superstars for their respective teams. They are off to starts to their careers that put them on a Hall of Fame track. Only 41 players have ever recorded a 120 OPS+ or better at age 19 or 20 in at least 240 plate appearances. 14 of these players went on to the Hall of Fame and 5 of them are still active. That gives Soto and Acuña roughly a 40% of making the Hall of Fame just by what they’ve done this year.

Of course, they both still have a long way to go, but they are off to a very good start to their respective careers. The National League is in good hands with all of these talented young players.