Atlanta Braves: Could an Opener Help Julio Teheran?

NEW YORK, NY – AUGUST 05: Julio Teheran #49 of the Atlanta Braves in action against the New York Mets at Citi Field on August 5, 2018 in the Flushing neighborhood of the Queens borough of New York City. The Braves defeated the Mets 5-4 after ten innings. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher, Julio Teheran, has had a very tough season, but could the wide-spreading opener strategy be used to help get the most out of him going forward?

The “opener” has been all the rage in Major League Baseball this season. The Tampa Bay Rays started the trend and have been using this strategy for much of the year and it has made its way around the league with many other teams deploying an opener to start games instead of the traditional starter. There has been some push back to this strategy, but so far it has mostly worked. Since the Rays deployed Sergio Romo in the first inning as the opener on June 1st, they have lowered their team ERA from 3.99 to 3.81 and their FIP from 3.97 to 3.86. That might not seem like a major change but that’s a difference of roughly 32 runs over the course of the season. You don’t want to use this strategy every day, but there are certainly some starting pitchers where this would be very helpful. It is time for the Atlanta Braves to start using this strategy on days that Julio Teheran pitches.

Teheran is struggling mightily this season after a disappointing year last year as well. Teheran is only 27 years old so it hard to imagine that he could already be on the tail end of a once promising career, but the results have been concerning. Teheran has a 5.33 FIP and a 4.48 ERA this year that is being held down by a ridiculously low .230 babip. He is striking out batters at a near career high rate, but he is also walking more batters than he ever has in his career. In Teheran’s best years he posted walk rates around 5.5%. This season that rate is all the way up to 12%, which is second highest in baseball among starting pitchers. Teheran simply cannot continue putting up these numbers if he wants to be a major league pitcher for much longer.

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Teheran has also been noted often as having a problem in the first inning which he absolutely does. His first inning ERA is 8.18 while allowing a .382 wOBA to hitters in the first. Looking a little closer, he is getting lit up by 2,3, and 4 hitters in opposing lineups. These hitters collectively have a .952 OPS against Teheran. Furthermore, Teheran has been dreadful against left-handed hitters this season allowing a .344 wOBA against them.

All of this is where the opener strategy comes in. On Teheran’s scheduled day to start the Braves should use a reliever to open the game in the first inning. This reliever would pitch the first inning or at least face the first four batters in the lineup. Then, Julio Teheran can come in to face the fifth batter and stay in for the next 23-24 batters. This would allow him to face the easier part of the order three times while only facing his toughest opponents twice, all while still pitching a starter’s workload. This simple strategy would lower his OPS against from .740 to .703! If the difficult part of the order is filled with left-handed hitters then the difference would be even greater. If the Braves are going to continue to pitch Teheran every fifth day, then this is something they must do.

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The only real question is which reliever should play the opener. The most logical choice would be Shane Carle. Carle is a solid reliever who pitched in the minors as a starter, he’s been pushed out of high leverage situations in the pen, and he is equally good against righties and lefties. Unfortunately, Carle just went to the Disabled List with shoulder inflammation and it is uncertain when he will return. The next best choice would likely be Luke Jackson. Jackson is having a pretty good year as a low leverage/long man and he is actually better against left-handed batters than he is against righties. Jackson has dramatically increased his strike out rate this season and may have turned a corner to becoming a quality reliever. This could be an excellent challenge for Jackson and one for which he looks to be ready.

The Atlanta Braves currently have a 41.3% chance of making the playoffs according to Fangraphs and they need to try to win every game that they can. Julio Teheran has been very valuable for the Braves over the years, but right now he is not giving the team a chance to win. Teheran can still be a successful pitcher but he has to be used in a way that puts him in a position to succeed. The opener strategy is the perfect way for the Braves to get the most out of Julio and give themselves a chance to win every game that he pitches.

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We’ll see if the Atlanta Braves actually deploy this strategy going forward, but it would definitely be a great way to increase their odds at making the postseason.

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