Slumping Seattle Mariners face tough two-week stretch

Mired in a brutal slump, the Seattle Mariners have a tough 16-games stretch against playoff contenders starting Thursday.

Like Ferris Bueller once said, “Life moves pretty fast. You don’t stop and look around once in awhile, you could miss it.” Life has moved very fast for the Seattle Mariners over the last five weeks and because of their recent play the thing they could miss now is a playoff spot.

After their win over the Angels on July 3, the Seattle Mariners were 55-31 and just a half-game behind the Houston Astros in the AL West. They trailed the New York Yankees by 1.5 games for the first wild card spot, but were eight games up on the Oakland A’s for the second wild card spot.

Since then, they’ve endured a brutal 10-19 stretch, dropped to eight games back of the Astros, and now trail the A’s by three games for the second wild card spot. Their odds to make the playoffs, per Fangraphs, have dropped from 85 percent to under 30 percent.

There’s plenty of blame to go around. Over the last 30 days, the Mariners position players are 28^th of the 30 MLB teams in Fangraphs WAR. Collectively, they’ve hit .240/.291/.372. Jean Segura went from smoking hot to freezing cold. He’s hit .209/.247/.264 in the last 30 days. Kyle Seager (.185/.224/.333) has been nearly as bad as Segura. Dee Gordon has a .281 OBP during this stretch, yet still remains in the leadoff spot.

Ryon Healy (63 wRC+) hasn’t hit. Denard Span (89 wRC+) and Mitch Haniger (96 wRC+) have been better than most of the team, but still below average. About the only guys doing much at the plate are Nelson Cruz (148 wRC+) and Mike Zunino (152 wRC+).

The team’s woes don’t end with the hitters, though. The starting rotation is 26^th in MLB in ERA over the last 30 days, with only James Paxton posting an ERA under 4.00 during that stretch. Sadly, the team’s worst starter recently has been longtime ace Felix Hernandez. He’s allowed seven earned runs in two of his last three starts and has a 5.73 ERA this season. It could be time for the King to step down from his throne.

The bullpen has been marginally better, but still has a 4.78 ERA over the last month. Edwin Diaz and Alex Colome have combined for 19.3 scoreless innings, but the guys counted on to get the game from the starter to the late innings haven’t done well lately. Zach Duke, in particular, has been terrible. He’s pitched 1.7 innings in five appearances and has a 32.40 ERA. That’s not a typo.

On top of all that, the Mariners are heading into a stretch of 16 games against teams contending for the playoffs. Starting Thursday, they play four straight against the Astros in Houston, where the ‘Stros have a .571 winning percentage. Then they go to Oakland for three games. The A’s are .589 at home. After a day off, the Mariners host the Dodgers (.571 on the road) for three games at Safeco Field, then take on the Astros (.695 on the road) for three games at home. They finish off this stretch with three games in Arizona against the Diamondbacks (.525 at home).

While the Seattle Mariners play their next 16 games against teams over .500, the team they’re trying to catch, the Oakland A’s, have an easier schedule. The A’s face the Angels, Mariners, Astros, Rangers, and Twins. In that group, only the Mariners and Astros are above .500.

On Thursday, the Mariners made some changes to their roster involving pitchers Sam Tuivailala and Chasen Bradford. Tuivailala was placed on the DL and Bradford was optioned to Triple-A. In their place, Nick Rumbelow and Casey Lawrence came up. Both are likely to pitch out of the bullpen, but the team could have another idea in mind for Lawrence.

One of the biggest disappointments for longtime Mariner fans this season has been the brutal season of Felix Hernandez. He was the team’s ace for so many years. Even when the team wasn’t good, Felix was. He’s an icon in Seattle, with his own cheering section at Safeco Field called King’s Court. Unfortunately, he just doesn’t have it anymore.

His ERA and FIP are the worst of his career. His 17.9 percent strikeout rate is the lowest of his career. His 89.2 mph fastball is the slowest of his career and batters are teeing off on it. With every game meaning so much this year, fans are questioning how long the team can keep Hernandez in the rotation. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto spoke about Hernandez and his spot in the rotation, saying “there are always options…” and suggested the pitcher may not make his next start in Houston on Sunday.

Should the team decide against pitching Hernandez against the Astros, newly-recalled Casey Lawrence could get the start. He last started for the Triple-A Tacoma Rainiers last Saturday. Watch to see if Lawrence is used in relief on Thursday, Friday or Saturday. If not, he could start Sunday in place of Hernandez.

As far as the offense is concerned, Robinson Cano is eligible to be back on Tuesday. He will get time at first base, second base and DH. If he comes back and hits like he’s capable, he’ll be a boost. Of course, he’s missed 80 games with a PED suspension, so it’s hard to know how quickly he’ll get up to speed.

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Another guy who could help is Ben Gamel, currently in Triple-A hitting .339/.441/.518. In 222 plate appearances with the Mariners, Gamel hit .290/.360/.395. That’s the best OBP of any Mariner with more than 200 plate appearances this year. It’s mind-boggling why Gamel isn’t with the Mariners already.

Also hitting well in Triple-A is Dan Vogelbach, with a .297/.444/.573 batting line. You’d think a team could find some playing time for a guy hitting that well, but the Mariners continue to put Ryon “OBP Black Hole” Healy in the lineup. Vogelbach will likely have to wait until rosters expand in September to get his chance because Cano will take the at-bats he might have had.

More than anything, and this is very simple I know, the Mariners regulars need to play better. They had a hot stretch and are now having a cold stretch. Segura played above his talent level for five weeks from mid-May to late-June (.380/.415/.558) and now he’s playing below his talent level. Dee Gordon should be able to get on base at least marginally more often than he has. Haniger is better than he’s been lately.

With 47 games to play, more than one-quarter of the season, the Seattle Mariners are three games behind the A’s for the second wild card. They play the A’s ten more times before the year is done, including seven of their next 22 games. If they can stay close into late September, they play three games at home against the A’s in their second-to-last series. It would be nice if those games are meaningful.