Houston Astros: Should Lance McCullers return as a reliever?
Astros fans witnessed one of pitcher Lance McCullers best moments in his career last year as a multi-inning closer. Yet, he still remains in the starting rotation. Would he be more effective in a full-time relief role?
Houston Astros fans watched in amazement. Six Yankees stepped up to the plate, and all were sent into the dugout, fooled by one type of pitch.
And Houston pitcher Lance McCullers became notable because of it.
The right-handed hurler tossed 24 consecutive curveballs in Game 7 of last year’s American League Championship Series to cap off a four-inning save. More impressively, it was against a team headed by sluggers Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez.
That crucial moment was arguably McCullers’s highest point in his career thus far. It’s evident that he possesses one of the better – and nastier – spinners in the league. It worked well against New York, keeping hitters off-balance.
Nevertheless, McCullers’s career numbers aren’t as dominant. His durability hasn’t helped him, as he’s suffered an injury in each of the past three seasons. It’s ironic that the young starter was placed on the disabled list just after he matched his career-high with 22 starts in a season.
Thus, the Astros have to consider whether the talented pitcher should remain in the rotation in the long run. He is the only pitcher currently in the rotation that is signed past 2020, and fans are aware that some of the other four starters may not return to Houston.
Yet, that doesn’t mean McCullers would lose his value. In fact, he could become even more valuable as a relief pitcher. Moreover, if the Astros have issues with ninth-inning specialists, he is an option at this point.
Of course, this is when he returns and if he remains healthy.
The front office has time to decide how to handle this situation. But other franchises’ decisions could influence the end result. St. Louis decided Carlos Martinez should be in the bullpen down the stretch. Even Houston may have Jose Altuve play when he’s not 100 percent.
Houston has enough depth and talent on its roster to survive Fall ball and experiment with McCullers in the pen. From a long-term standpoint, it could be the right move as well.
But are the Astros willing to risk a move at this point in their campaign?
How good is McCullers?
Baseball fans that don’t know McCullers might assume he’s a one-trick pony. Yet, they don’t know about his extended repertoire.
While he’s experimented with other pitches, he primarily sticks to three pitches: curveball, sinker and changeup. His curveball gives hitters fits, though he’s had more success with other pitches.
Surprisingly, his best pitch this season hasn’t been the spinner. It’s been his changeup, as hitters own a paltry .138 average against it. He also possesses an effective sinker on most nights.
McCullers has shown his efficiency in the past. However, the longer he stays in the game, the less effectual he is. At least, that’s been the case throughout the previous two seasons.
His splits from this season show this.
McCullers sports a 2.52 ERA during his first time through the order, with hitters posting a measly .167/.269/.247 triple-slash line. And the Houston hurler allowed just one home run under these circumstances.
His ERA balloons to 4.15 after an additional time through the order, then to 6.26 after a third time. The Astros starter is ultimately dominant when he’s fresh, which is good evidence that he can thrive as a reliever.
When manager A.J. Hinch keeps McCullers in a game, he essentially rolls the dice. Compared to the rest of the rotation, McCullers is the only haphazard pitcher. Throughout July, he posted three consecutive subpar outings, raising his ERA .60 points to 4.00-plus.
AJ Hinch says this is the first time Lance McCullers Jr has played catch since going on the DL: "He played catch today. That's the new part for him. That's just a step closer." pic.twitter.com/sXQjI4Chj4
— Mark Berman (@MarkBerman_) August 14, 2018
Then he got hurt, something Houston fans are used to at this point. If he didn’t have to throw as many pitches as he normally does, he won’t place as much strain on his arm. For a curveballer, that could be crucial.
Nevertheless, the back-end starter has his moments of promise. He’s racked up double-digit strikeouts in four outings this season, and he’s maintained 9.9 whiffs per nine innings. He averages more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings in his career.
But he fails to reach the sixth inning in several starts, qualifying for quality starts in just 13 of 22 starts. His career seems to be shaped by inconsistency.
That could be avoided if McCullers switches to the bullpen.
Where would he fit in the pen?
The Astros have one of the most versatile relief units in the league. Hinch possesses a mix of long-relief options with ninth-inning door-stoppers.
Yet, the bullpen has had issues against certain teams. The loss against Oakland on Friday night is just one example.
But overall, Houston’s bullpen owns the best ERA in the MLB. Opponents only own a worse average against the Yankees’ relief corps.
The Astros don’t have to use relievers as frequently as other clubs because of how dominant their starters are. Nevertheless, McCullers and his short outings don’t help.
Hinch wasn’t afraid to use starting pitchers late in games last season. This was evident during the playoffs with McCullers and Charlie Morton, who closed out the World Series.
And he also uses multiple former starting pitchers as go-to options in crucial scenarios, such as Brad Peacock and Chris Devenski. Collin McHugh joined that prime group this year, going from essentially a mediocre starter to a lockdown reliever.
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The Astros aren’t shy to add another player to this mix, especially if it means keeping him off the disabled list. Cionel Perez could be another example, if he plays a role for the team across the next few years.
Of course, Hinch would need to replace McCullers if he switches him to the bullpen. Though, that wouldn’t be an issue, as he has several MLB-caliber pitchers in the minors.
While Hinch has been mum on who he may use in the next few weeks with McCullers still on the disabled list, a minor-league player will likely be seen. And that could be the case for the remainder of the regular season, since Houston won’t need five starters for the playoffs.
If he returns by October and the Astros qualify for the postseason, McCullers may be in the pen anyways. With the closers’ volatility throughout the season, he may even close games out.
Roberto Osuna might be next on Hinch’s list if Rondon continues to flounder in the ninth inning, as he did Friday night. However, McCullers – and his curveball – could be the team’s most effective closer.
Who could replace Lance McCullers?. dark. Next
And fans might never know how dominant he could be if he sticks in the rotation throughout the rest of his career.