MLB postseason: Pivotal players for each contending team
One player on each MLB contender whose performance will be crucial down the stretch toward the MLB postseason.
Three-quarters of the way through the schedule, the race for MLB postseason spots has resolved itself down to a relative handful of teams.
Entering play August 17, the Red Sox and Indians have built sufficiently comfortable divisional leads that they appear all but formally guaranteed to be around for October. But the defending World Series champion Astros are fending off a stern challenge from the A’s and Mariners. The American League wild card sees the Athletics and Mariners both trying to haul down the Yankees.
The National League races are all less certain. In the East, Atlanta and Philadelphia are neck-and-neck with the pre-season favorite Nationals well back. In the Central, Chicago holds a 3-game lead over Milwaukee, which in turn leads St. Louis by a game entering their weekend series.
In the West, Arizona, Colorado and Los Angeles have spent the past month swapping the divisional lead. The wild card spots? Those could go to any of the divisional race losers.
Inevitably, each team’s fate is likely to be influenced by a handful of players cast in pivotal roles down the stretch. Entering Friday’s play, let’s take a look at those players, and why their performance is likely to influence their team’s MLB postseason fate.
Houston Astros
74-47, +2 games in AL West
Jose Altuve, 2nd base
As the reigning AL MVP and the Astros’ inspirational leader, Altuve is an obvious choice to play a pivotal role for Houston. That status is only intensified by the fact that Altuve was batting .329 when he went to the disabled list with knee problems July 25. His .857 OPS is well-off his 2017 MVP season, but still well above both the league average and his .819 career average.
He is expected back before the end of August, and the Astros need him. They’re 7-10 since Altuve left the lineup, and they have lost all but two games of their divisional lead. In his absence, Houston has averaged 4.1 runs per game. While that figure sounds average, it is bolstered by two games in which they scored 14 and 12 runs. In the other 15 games, the Altuve-less Astros have averaged just 2.93 runs.
Between now and the end of August, the Astros have six games with the second place Athletics and three with the third place Mariners. Altuve is hitting .520 against the Mariners and .345 against the A’s this season, so it would be no small comfort to Houston fans if he returned to the field for at least a couple of those August games to boost their MLB postseason case.
New York Yankees
75-46, +3 in AL wild card
Gary Sanchez, catcher
With a .620 winning percentage, it may be difficult to imagine the Yankees not reaching MLB postseason play. In fact, New York has stumbled through August, going 7-9 and seeing a seven game lead in the wild card more than halved. With Oakland and Seattle both coming on strong, Yankee fans can no longer look on October baseball as guaranteed.
Injuries to key figures such as Aaron Judge, who remains out indefinitely, have hurt an offense that has also been slowed by rookie phenom Gleybar Torres’ reversion to a norm. Torres was batting .300 in mid-June, but he is hitting just .210 since then.
The Yanks need a quick offensive transfusion, and the most likely place to get it may be Sanchez. Although out since mid-July with a groin injury and ineffective prior to that – witness his .188 batting average — Sanchez remains a legitimate offensive threat and he is expected back soon.
With a resume that includes 20 home runs in the final two months of 2016 and 33 more last year, he can provide power at a position that has generated little of that coveted commodity. That’s especially important for New York given the uncertain timing of Judge’s return.
Oakland Athletics
72-49, even in AL wild card
Edwin Jackson, pitcher
That Edwin Jackson could be the answer to anybody’s pennant dreams speaks volumes about Billy Beane’s magical touch in Oakland. A 15-year journeyman with a career losing record, Jackson signed with the A’s in June after being released by the Nationals, for whom he had compiled a 5.07 ERA in 13 starts.
The A’s have gone 43-21 since Jackson’s arrival, and while most of that success obviously isn’t attributable to him alone, Jackson has made nine starts with a 2.48 ERA.
He figures to make another seven or eight starts before season’s end. If he can repeat the performance he’s delivered thus far, it’s one less thing Oakland fans have to worry about.
One legitimate concern is whether Jackson can hold his new-found form against what is likely to be intensified competition. In his victories, Jackson has faced only one contender, the Indians. Over the final 40 games, the A’s will play the Mariners, Astros or Yankees 16 times. When Jackson’s turn comes around against those front-rank teams in the MLB postseason, can he continue to stand up to the competition?
Seattle Mariners
70-52, -2.5 games in AL wild card
Kyle Seager, 3rd base
In pennant race pressure, a team’s regulars have to deliver. Kyle Seager is an established presence in the middle of the Mariners’ lineup. Yet three-quarters of the way through the season, Seager is batting just .227 with a sub-par .688 OPS.
Not that Seager has ever been a high-average guy; his career average coming into this season was about .265. But his OPS is an even more telling statistic. Coming into 2018, he had never been below .738 for any full season, and had averaged .770. At .688, he’s 80 points off that pace this year.
If the Mariners want to catch the Athletics and/or the Yankees, Seager needs to be a driving force.
That the Mariners have survived thus far absent centerpiece production from Seager is a credit to the team’ depth. Still, their record since August 1 is a standing-still 7-7, and it’s no coincidence that Seager has hit just .224 with seven RBIs during that time. Ten of Seattle’s final 29 games will be against the Athletics or Yankees, Seattle’s two wild card rivals. Seager’s performance in those games can make or break his team’s chances for a MLB postseason berth.
Atlanta Braves
68-52, +1.5 games in NL East
Ender Inciarte, center field
Atlanta is leading the NL East because an entire phalanx of players has stepped up. Ozzie Albies, Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna, and Nick Markakis have all emerged as front-rank stars.
Based on pre-season expectations, the obvious omission from that list is center fielder Ender Inciarte, a .304 batter last year who as the opening day leadoff man was expected to provide the offensive spark.
Instead, Inciarte has rarely emerged above .250 all season. His on base average has also tumbled, from .350 each of the past two seasons to .309 this year. His +1.5 WAR is less than half his production in any of his previous four seasons. That decline easily justifies his demotion to the sixth spot in the Braves batting order, although his obvious defensive skills have kept him in the lineup.
The hustling Braves may be deep enough to survive Inciarte’s extended slump, but what they really need is for him to find the batting touch that had made him a reliable .295 hitter prior to this year. Put that kind of Inciarte in with the rest of the Braves and Atlanta might be formidable in the NL East race and beyond into the MLB postseason.
Philadelphia Phillies
67-54, -1.5 games in NL East, even in wild card
Vince Velasquez, pitcher
This was supposed to be a breakthrough season for Velasquez, the Phillies’ 26-year-old second round draftee in 2010. It still might be. In fact, if the Phils are to accomplish their MLB postseason goals, it might have to be.
The Phillies are well-positioned to stake that MLB postseason claim, including on the mound, where Aaron Nola has been superb and Jake Arrieta has been steady.
Velasquez, however, has played an uneven role to date. In 23 starts, he’s compiled a mediocre 8-9 record and 4.13 ERA. In his most recent start, Velasquez gave his team just seven outs before being kayoed by the Red Sox, although the Phillies rallied to win anyway, 7-4. In his previous start, a 6-0 shutout at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks, he allowed four runs in six innings.
When he’s right, Velasquez can be dominant. In his eight victories, he’s allowed just seven total runs. But in his nine losses, he’s allowed 36 runs. If the Phillies are to stay in the race to the finish, they need that first Velasquez – the good one — to show up consistently, and that second Velasquez to step aside.
Washington Nationals
61-61, -8 games in NL East, -6.5 in wild card
Bryce Harper, rf
The Nationals are a perfect illustration of an under-achieving team seeking a lift from an under-achieving headliner. In his free agent season, Harper is batting just .243.
He has produced 30 home runs, but the peripheral numbers demonstrate what the Nationals aren’t getting from their star free agent-to-be. Entering the season’s final quarter, his WAR is a pedestrian +1.5, which puts him in the bottom half of value in his own lineup.
Were Harper having a normal season for him, that kind of production – coupled with the legitimate contributions given Washington by Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, rookie Juan Soto and pitcher Max Scherzer – would have the Nationals far closer to their expected MLB postseason contending role.
That and the Nats’ flagging pennant prospects are the main reasons why trade rumors continue to waft around Harper. The looming prospect of free agency provides additional incentive for Harper to reverse the momentum of his season over these final six weeks. If he does, it may still not be too late for Washington. But if that doesn’t happen soon, those trade rumors may begin to gain credibility.
Chicago Cubs
70-50, +3.5 games in NL Central
Kris Bryant, 3rd base
Bryant has been sidelined for most of the past two months with shoulder inflammation, and it is a testament to the Cubs’ depth that his absence has not sunk them. Still, we’re talking about Chicago’s best hitter and best power threat here, a .290 hitter with 30+ home run power and a career .906 OPS.
The problem is that Bryant not only needs to come back, he needs to come back and perform at Bryant-level expectations. He’s already returned from the disabled list once this year, for 10 games in mid-July. It was not an intimidating stretch, Bryant batting just .250 with just two long balls and nearly as many strikeouts (9) as hits (10).
At his healthiest, Bryant has been Bryant. He was hitting above. 300 in late May with an OPS pushing 1.000 before the injury.
The Cubs would like to think they have a firm enough grasp on the NL Central to let Bryant take his time healing. That may be; they’ve held first place for two months. But while it’s possible to envision the Cubs reaching post-season play with David Bote holding down third and anchoring the batting order, they need a healthy Bryant to ensure their ticket to the MLB postseason, and certainly if they are to have much chance of making postseason headway.
Milwaukee Brewers
68-55, -3.5 games in NL Central, even in NL wild card
Jesus Aguilar, 1st base
Aguilar’s development as a slugger, which began in 2017 and has accelerated this year, is one of the principal reasons why the Brewers are a legitimate threat both in the NL Central and in the wild card. Milwaukee’s club is built on power, and manager Craig Counsel needs Aguilar to continue to provide it.
So far he has. With only 16 career home runs prior to this season, Aguilar has hit 29 in 2018, driving in 87 runs and fashioning a .950 OPS. Any doubt about Aguilar arises from the fact that he’s never done it before, certainly not for a full season. In fact he came to Milwaukee as waiver wire castoff from Cleveland, where he had gotten fewer than 70 trips to the plate in his first three seasons.
The Brewers especially need him against their chief rivals, the Cubs and Cardinals. To date in 2018, Aguilar has produced just a .250 average against Chicago with no homers and a single RBI. Against the Cardinals, he’s batting .186. Between Aug. 17 and Oct. 1, the Brewers play Chicago and St. Louis six more times each. They need their power guy to be a power guy for a chance at the MLB postseason.
St. Louis Cardinals
66-56, -5 games in NL Central, -1.5 games in wild card
Harrison Bader, center field
The deadline trade of Tommy Pham to Tampa was a signal flare to Harrison Bader, and he has responded to it.
Since that trade the Cardinals are 12-3, and it is no coincidence that the 24-year-old Bader has become a regular in the outfield. A dashing speed-burner, he has hit .367 since the Pham deal opened up full-time work for him, with seven multi-hit games. He’s also piled up a sequence of sterling defensive plays along the way.
The increased playing time has helped. Bader’s 13 starts in the first 15 games of August equal his total starts from mid-June through the end of July. In the process he’s raised his batting average by 20 points, his on based average by 17 and his slugging average by 46 points.
Now the question is whether Bader can maintain that pace for the final six, intensified weeks. The Cardinals need him to for a MLB postseason chance; their schedule going forward includes seven games with the Dodgers, six with the Brewers plus series versus the Braves and Cubs.
Arizona Diamondbacks
67-55, 1st in NL West
Clay Buchholz, pitcher
Buchholz is to the D-Backs what Edwin Jackson has been to the A’s…the pitching equivalent of found money.
An 11-season journeyman, Buchholz signed with Arizona in May after being released by the Royals, and after having made just one major league appearance in a year. Arizona couldn’t have had much in the way of expectations. Buchholz hadn’t had a winning season since going 12-1 in 16 starts for Boston in 2013. Since winning his first game in his third appearance on June 1, Buchholz has made nine starts and lost just one of them. He has allowed just 62 hits in 73 innings, and produced a +2.0 WAR.
His most recent performance was also his most uplifting, a complete game, 5-1 victory over the San Diego Padres that featured six strikeouts and no walks. It was his first complete game in more than three seasons.
Like Jackson, Buchholz figures to get another seven or eight starts before season’s end. If he can reprise his performance to date, it will supplement an Arizona rotation already featuring such reliables as Zack Greinke, Patrick Corbin, Zack Godley and Robbie Ray. The surprising thing is that judging strictly by ERA, none of them is the ace of the D-Backs’ staff in 2018. Buchholz, with his 2.47 ERA, is.
Colorado Rockies
65-56, -1.5 games in NL West, -2 games in wild card
Kyle Freeland, pitcher
As much as the Rockies are thought of as offensively driven, their key figure down the stretch is likely to be a pitcher nobody thought much about before this season.
In his second full season, Freeland has developed into the Colorado ace, with a 3.02 ERA in 24 starts. That translates to a +5.9 pitcher WAR, the season’s fifth best total, behind only Aaron Nola, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Chris Sale. Heady company, indeed, for a Rockies pitcher.
He’s also hot. Freeland has lost just once since mid-June with a 2.67 ERA since then. If the Colorado batters can continue to count on that kind of performance from a starting pitcher, it eases their burden down what is likely to be a challenging stretch toward the MLB postseason.
Freeland was a 1st round Rockies draft selection out of Evansville, the eighth pick overall, who debuted in 2017 going 11-11 in 28 starts. The improvement since that rookie season has been striking. Freeland has lowered his ERA from 4.10 to 3.02, his WHIP from 1.49 to 1.24, and he’s struck out 13 more opposing batters in 10 fewer innings. With a strong finish, it’s not out of the question for Freeland to do the truly unthinkable: pitch in the post-season and then bring a few Cy Young Award votes to Denver.
Los Angeles Dodgers
65-57, -2 games in NL West -2.5 games in wild card
Kenley Jansen, pitcher
Jansen is on the disabled list with an irregular heartbeat, a diagnosis that renders his on-field performance a secondary consideration. The prognosis is good, with a return to the field expected by September, and possibly sooner.
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In matters of the heart, of course, all such guesses are problematic. And given the absence of a backup closer, the odds of a Dodger comeback in the NL West are markedly enhanced if Jansen is around to close down the 9th inning.
He’s obviously skilled at that, with 32 saves, a 2.15 ERA and a .902 WHIP. So the real question for the Dodgers is whether, and when, Jansen’s heart will allow him to return?
The Dodgers have no backup, with just seven non-Jansen saves apportioned among four bullpen mates. Scott Alexander, the only Dodger with more appearances than Jansen, has two of those saves, but he also has an uninspiring 3.81 ERA. He’s also walked 25 batters, about one every two innings. The same indictment can be leveled against Pedro Baez and Daniel Hudson, the other logical candidates.
In short, it’s a lot easier to see the Dodgers fighting through to MLB postseason baseball if Kenley Jansen is throwing the critical final pitches.
Next. Billy McKinney's amazing trip to the majors. dark
That’s our list of pivotal players for each contender. Do you agree? Someone missing? Comment below!!