Phillies: NL East pennant chase
For the Phillies, the future has arrived a year earlier than the front office had expected, so general manager Matt Klentak to his credit then surrounded his young charges with veterans to boost the offense.
Finish line:
While Philadelphia Phillies fans scoreboard watch, the view in the clubhouse is different because they realize additional factors are at work. Basically, the opposition is as important as the series. Are they facing a playoff competitor or a spoiler in the final weeks of the campaign?
IN OTHER WORDS: “The only difference between a winning team and a losing team is one game. The winning team can win two out of three games…the losing team can only win one out of three.” – Vin Scully
Like the Phils, the Atlanta Braves finished the first half with the possibility of competing for the division crown. And while some players unexpectedly produced despite growing pains, others matured. So, here we are!
As for complementing their roster at the trade deadline, the Braves added right-handed pitchers Kevin Gausman as a fifth starter and Brad Brach for the back end of the bullpen. They also hope new corner outfielder Adam Duvall can show his form from 2016 and 2017.
Meanwhile, Klentak acquired catcher Wilson Ramos, infielder Asdrubal Cabrera and first baseman Justin Bour. They are lengthening the lineup, providing an offensive punch, and strengthening the bench by moving Jorge Alfaro and Scott Kingery to those roles.
Besides the additions of Ramos and Cabrera making the batting order stronger, Bour, Alfaro, Kingery and Roman Quinn will also have playing time to stay sharp. They will keep the regulars fresh in September and for October.
On the other hand, missing pieces can also affect the divisional outcome. But while the hometown nine had no critical loss due to injury, Atlanta has been without their closer Arodys Vizcaino since July 14 due to right shoulder inflammation. An early September return?
Barring the fortunes of the Chicago Cubs or the three teams on the edge of contention, seven franchises are vying for four spots. So, winning the division is better than a Wild Card Game or nothing at all. And home field is also in play.
Five surprises:
Basically, most figured the Miami Marlins would have the first pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, but four clubs have a worse record. In fact, they haven’t been a total pushover.
As for New York (NL), FanGraphs predicted they’d play serious October baseball. Therefore, the interpretation of one Mets fan was they’d win the first wild card. But now fourth place appears to be in their future beyond 2018.
While injuries have plagued the Metropolitans, it appears to be more than bad luck. The belief here is the business side could be making decisions based on attendance. For instance, projecting a star’s quick return can prevent a drop in ticket sales, although that optimistic timetable is unlikely. Just a guess!
Regarding the Washington Nationals, they were going to win the division again with an eye toward the playoffs. Well, injuries and struggling regulars have beset them, and they probably won’t make a run due to losing their closer plus two setup men. File this under don’t count on tomorrow.
The Braves and the Phillies are the jaw-droppers. Yes, some are having career seasons, making an early or on-time impact, or bouncing back because of the challenge of losing their position. And both franchises are contending due to teamwork.
As for the top of the rotation, Aaron Nola and Jake Arrieta are a solid one-two punch, while Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb are slightly less formidable. But each organization has three other capable starters, and each club can consistently achieve a winning formula: three solid outings out of every five.
Critical results:
During each 162, every team has ups and downs, and the prolonged highs and lows draw the most attention. But the stretch drive magnifies the imperfections of every franchise.
Piling up victories over mediocre teams is usually the expectation to reach the postseason along with a .500 away mark. That stated, going deep in the playoffs isn’t happening if you can’t play .500 against other October hopefuls.
During the summer, Atlanta had 19 contests versus clubs near or at the top of their divisions, but they went 7-12 during this postseason preview. Yes, many away games were on this rough patch in their schedule. On the other hand, the Phils’ stretch was for 39 games or almost a quarter of ’18.
The Braves from June 29 through July 29:
- @ Cardinals: 3-0
- @ Yankees: 1-2
- @ Brewers: 0-4
- @ Diamondbacks: 1-2
- @ Nationals: 1-1
- Dodgers: 1-3
- Total: 7-12
Regarding the red pinstripes, they went 20-19, but 20 of the 39 contests were away affairs. For the record, they were 9-11 on the road and 11-8 at the Bank.
The Phillies from May 17 through July 1:
- @ Cardinals: 2-2
- Braves: 2-1
- @ Dodgers: 2-2
- @ Giants: 0-3
- @ Cubs: 1-2
- Brewers: 1-2
- Rockies: 2-1
- @ Brewers: 2-1
- Cardinals: 2-1
- @ Nationals: 2-1
- Yankees: 1-2
- Nationals: 3-1
- Total: 20-19
Current results:
Facing opponents after the All-Star break is another comparison worth noting because each series has a greater value than in the first half. And head-to-head competition can be a predictor for serious October baseball.
The Braves from July 20:
- @ Nationals: 1-1
- Dodgers: 1-3
- @ Nationals: 2-2
- Brewers: 2-1
- Rockies: 0-4
- @ Pirates: 1-0
- Total: 7-11
Since mid-season’s downtime, Atlanta is 7-11, even though the first two series in this 18-game stint were after the break: 4-3 in away venues and 3-8 in their friendly confines. Even so, they are 5-7 not counting those six contests: 3-2 on the road and 2-5 in Atlanta. Those home games are a concern.
The Phillies from July 20:
- Dodgers: 2-1
- @ Red Sox: 1-1
- @ Diamondbacks: 1-2
- Red Sox: 1-1
- Total: 5-5
On the other hand, the Phils are 5-5: 2-3 away from Philly and 3-2 at the Bank. Basically, they bring their A game when they play the toughest competition, and they are victorious in half of those battles.
On the horizon, the Braves have 29 of 38 games versus playoff hopefuls. The 16 home contests are against the Cubs (1), Pirates (2), Red Sox (3), Nationals (3), Cardinals (3) and Phillies (4). As for away games, they are versus the Pirates (3), Diamondbacks (4), Giants (3) and Phillies (3).
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According to their results during the same timeframe, Atlanta struggles the most against stronger opponents at home, while they consistently defeat also-rans. But their schedule only has nine contests against weaker teams, while they have 16 versus tougher competition in Hotlanta.
For the red pinstripes, they have 23 of 38 contests versus postseason-type competition. The three-game home affairs are against the Nationals, Cubs, Nationals and Braves, while the away series are versus the Nationals (3), Braves (4) and Rockies (4).
Meanwhile, the Phillies 15 contests versus weaker teams will force them to bring their best to make the playoffs. Due to their shortcomings, though, how long will the Phils remain relevant? To enjoy October pie!
Next. Phillies: Lazarus-like lineup resurrected for August. dark
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