Are the Washington Nationals the most disappointing team in baseball?

After trading away two players, are the Washington Nationals officially the most disappointing team in baseball?

It appears the Washington Nationals are waiving the white flag on the 2018 season. They are 7.5 games back in the NL East and 6.5 back of the second wild card spot. On Tuesday, they traded Daniel Murphy to the Cubs and Matt Adams to the Cardinals. After a frustrating season with injuries and underperformance, it looks like the Nationals have surrendered.

It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Before the season started, the Nationals were the consensus pick to win the NL East and were expected to be in the running for the top record in the National League. Using a collection of sources, I wrote about the projected standings back in February. At the time, the Nationals looked to be a 94-win team, with the second-best team in the NL East being the New York Mets.

Instead, the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies have arrived earlier than expected. They are battling it out for the division title, while the Nationals are struggling to get over the .500 mark. The New York Mets are 15 games out. It just goes to show that in baseball, you never really know.

So, are the Washington Nationals the most disappointing team in baseball?

In terms of the difference between expected wins and actual wins, the Nationals don’t compare to a team like the Orioles. Baltimore was expected to win around 70 games. Their current winning percentage pegs them as a 48-win team over 162 games. The Fangraphs projected standings have them finishing with 52 wins. In terms of raw underperformance, no team can touch the O’s.

House That Hank Built

There are other bad teams in the same category as the Orioles. These are teams that were expected to be bad but have been even worse than expected. The Kansas City Royals and Chicago White Sox are in this category. The Royals looked like a 67-win team. Their current winning percentage would give them 49 wins. The White Sox were projected to win around 70 games. Their current winning percentage would get them to 61 wins.

As bad as the Orioles, Royals and White Sox have been, they aren’t in the same category of disappointment as the Nationals. No rational person expected the aforementioned trio to compete. Everyone thought the Nationals would. It’s the difference between watching an Oscar-winning movie and coming away disappointed and watching a made-for-TV special and turning it off halfway through. The higher the expectations, the greater the disappointment.

So let’s look at other teams who were expected to be contenders for a playoff spot. In addition to the Nationals in the NL, there are the Los Angeles Dodgers. The pre-season expectations were for the Dodgers to win the NL West by about 10 games. They looked like a 96-win team. With a .532 winning percentage at the moment, they are on an 86-win pace. The Dodgers have been a disappointment so far, but they could could still go on a run and win the NL East so they aren’t as disappointing as the Nationals.

In the American League, I’m sure many Yankees fans are disappointed that their team is nine games back of the Red Sox. That being said, the Yankees .629 winning percentage would make them a 101-win team over a full season. It would be irrational to consider that a disappointment.

Astros fans might be disappointed (and shocked) that the ‘Stros are in a dead heat with the A’s for the AL West title. While it’s no consolation to Astros fans, this is more a product of the A’s being the most surprising team in baseball than the Astros being disappointing. The A’s were projected to win around 75 games. They (and the Astros) are on a 97-win pace. Again, you can’t be disappointed with a team that is still expected to win 95 or more games.

What about the rest of the teams expected to contend for a playoff spot in the American League? The Los Angeles Angels were expected to battle for the second wild card spot, with around 84 wins. They are sitting at .500, so they aren’t that far off from expectations. I’m sure it’s disappointing that they are so far out in the wild card race but, again, that’s because of the ridiculous 2018 Oakland A’s (and slightly less ridiculous Seattle Mariners)

This leaves two AL teams to consider, the Minnesota Twins (.476 winning percentage, 77-win pace) and Toronto Blue Jays (.448 winning percentage, 73-win pace). The Twins were projected to win around 84 games, which would have put them at the top of the pack for the second wild card spot based on pre-season expectations. It appears they’ll come up seven wins short of their expected win total and a dozen or more games out of the second wild card spot.

The Blue Jays also appeared to be wild card contenders in the pre-season. They were projected to finish around .500. They likely won’t get there. It looks like 73 or 74 wins is in their future and, like the Twins, a double-digit wild card deficit.

No, the Dodgers, Twins, Angels, and even the Orioles, can’t compete with the Nationals for the title of “most disappointing team in baseball.” The Nationals came into the season with great expectations and have failed to live up to them in a big way. Of course, with 37 games left and the fifth-best run-differential in the National League, maybe the Nationals will surprise everyone and make a run. With baseball, you just never know.