There was plenty of hype about the upcoming MLB free agency class for multiple years. Unlike many future MLB free agent classes where players are extended and never make free agency, this year’s class has primarily all continued forward, yet the luster has come off the class significantly. What happened?
Remember the breathtaking 2018-19 MLB free agent off-season? The one featuring Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Zach Britton, Dallas Keuchel, Adam Jones, Josh Donaldson and Andrew Miller all signing bust-the-bank level deals? The MLB free agency season to end all free agent seasons?
The one that hasn’t happened yet? The one that may turn out not to be nearly as big a deal as everyone projected? Yeah, that one.
Five weeks remain in the 2018 season, so change is still possible. But to date, most of what was expected to be the Mother Lode of all MLB free agency crops has hurt, not helped, its free agent case thus far this year.
More than 200 players are scheduled to hit the market at season’s end. In addition to all of the above-named players, that list includes Andrew McCutchen, Joe Mauer, Michael Brantley, J.A. Happ, and Craig Kimbrell.
The dozen names listed above earned more than $187 million in 2018 alone, and published estimates list their combined market value at more than $200 million. And that’s just per year; this, remember, is the mega-multi-year contract crowd.
Two elements, however, may be injecting a dose of gravity into the calculations. The first is the growing reticence of teams to invest major dollars into anything less than prime talent. Witness the difficulty many 2017-18 free agents had in negotiating an acceptable deal until the season was nigh (and in the case of some such as Jeremy Hellickson, until it was already underway.)
The second factor is the modest success enjoyed by many of the potential big-name free agents this year, suggesting to buyers that this may not be as elite a class as everybody once assumed.
Let’s take a general manager’s look at some of the components of this prime MLB free agency class and determine whether their value is still holding up.