2018 MLB Playoffs: Who Will Make National League Playoffs?
Nine teams atop the 2018 National League Standings are vying for five MLB Playoffs slots. Three teams in the NL East, NL Central, and NL West will compete over the final month of the season to determine this year’s postseason.
The National League has a rich history of supplying some great moments of teams “winning the pennant” during the MLB Playoffs.
Perhaps none are greater than the one that happened shortly before the above picture from October 3, 1951. On that day, Bobby Thomson of the New York Giants hit a walk-off homer against the rival Dodgers to win the pennant and send his team to the World Series.
Which teams will make the final cut to make history this season? A look at pros and cons of the contending teams’ situations should give insight on the exciting race to the 2018 MLB Playoffs.
Just because the 2018 MLB Trade Deadline has past does not mean teams have finished swapping players.
On August 21, two NL Central teams poached a hitter a piece from the NL East’s Washington Nationals.
The Chicago Cubs picked up professional hitter Daniel Murphy and St. Louis acquired power hitter Matt Adams.
The Nationals did not bring much back in these trades causing some to scratch their heads.
Meanwhile, the Cubs and Cardinals will use their new players to help boost them into the MLB Playoffs. This puts additional pressure on the other NL Central team, the Milwaukee Brewers.
The NL East appears more and more like a two team race now as the Nationals shift focus more towards the future.
In the NL West, the preseason favorites were the Los Angeles Dodgers. Furthermore, the San Francisco Giants made moves to improve its club heading into 2018. But, the Dodgers find themselves in third place halfway through August and the Giants are no longer realistically in playoff contention.
The Arizona Diamondbacks overcame a very slow start from its superstar first baseman Paul Goldschmidt and are leading the NL West with momentum and time running out in the season The Colorado Rockies have surprised many by staying in the race despite a run differential of -12.
If the 2018 MLB Playoffs started August 21, the Dodgers and Nationals would be on the outside.
The Cubs, Braves and Diamondbacks would win the NL Central, NL East, and NL West, respectively, and the Brewers would secure homefield in the Wild Card game. The Phillies, Rockies, and Cardinals would tie for the final Wild Card slot.
That’s how close it is.
Analyzing the 2018 MLB Playoffs: NL East Braves, Phillies, and Nationals
The Atlanta Braves
The Milwaukee Brewers finished the 2017 season one game from the final playoff spot. The Brewers are rebuilding and most did not expect their window of MLB Playoff contention to start until around 2019.
Similar to the 2017 Brewers, the 2018 Atlanta Braves took a big step in their rebuild. Several young Braves hitters had breakthrough seasons and Atlanta’s mostly young starting rotation matured.
The Braves will make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
Atlanta has a good, balanced lineup. Not only have players such as Ozzie Albies, Ronald Acuna, and Johan Camargo had breakthrough years, but veteran All-Stars Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis are contending for the NL batting championship.
Furthermore, Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb have developed into a good 1-2 punch for the rotation. Atlanta made that a 1-2-3 punch by trading for Kevin Gausman before the trade deadline. Gausman has a 2.00 ERA and .96 WHIP with Braves after 4 starts.
And, in the back end of the bullpen, A.J. Minter has saved 11/13 games with 10.26 K/9.
The Atlanta Braves’ quick rebuild and early arrival to the MLB Playoff picture might be surprising, but they have a good balance of peaking veterans and breakout youth without the injuries of some other clubs.
The Braves will NOT make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
The young players for the Braves cannot maintain their standout stats all season. For instance, breakout second baseman Albies is a tremendous player with great overall 2018 stats. However, his pre All-Star OPS is .834 and his post All-Star OPS is just .595.
Also, the Braves have a tough schedule for the final run. They only have three off-days left. Furthermore, they finish 2018 with seven of their last ten against their closest competitor for the NL East, the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies could easily use that opportunity to knock out the Braves if Atlanta slumps.
The Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have followed the trend of outstanding youth in the MLB. Philadelphia has been developing positional players in the big leagues for a few years now.
Andy MacPhail has given Phillies general manager Matt Klentak a great brain-trust with which to collaborate. Pat Gillick, Larry Bowa, and Charlie Manuel all work for the organization in an assistant or advisory role.
During the offseason, they gambled on Jake Arrieta who many thought had lost his stuff. He has turned out to be a good risk and has led the team’s young rotation.
The Phillies have a better record than the Nationals, which few thought they could do in 2018.
The Phillies will make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
Arrieta has a 3.37 ERA through 25 starts, but the team’s ace is Aaron Nola.
Nola has become one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2018. His ERA is 2.24 and his WHIP is 0.98 with just over one month to go in the 2018 season. He would match up well with any other pitcher in the 2018 MLB Playoffs.
Combine Arrieta and Nola with Vince Velasquez who strikes out more than a batter per inning and there is the making of a playoff team.
The Phillies will NOT make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
The young Phillies have a run differential of just +2. Furthermore, their road record is under .500. They have a good crop of hitters, but they can still be streaky. Unlike the Atlanta Braves, who have veterans Freeman and Markakis leading their lineup, Philadelphia does not have leadership like that in their lineup.
If they do not overtake the Braves and win the NL East, they will have to fend off four other teams competing for two Wild Card spots.
The Washington Nationals
Baseball experts made the Nationals a popular World Series pick for good reason. They boast a young but experienced and fearsome team. Their rotation is good and deep with two dominant aces and their lineup is deep and intimidating.
They have had shaky bullpens at times, but not too bad. For some reason, this organization just never put it all together and this season has been no different. Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo finally decided it was time to shake things up in August.
Rizzo sent second baseman Daniel Murphy to the Cubs and power-hitting lefty Matt Adams to the Cardinals after the two players were claimed on waivers in August.
The Nationals will make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
Despite the loss of Murphy and Adams, the Nats still have Ryan Zimmerman to play first base and pick up for any lost offense. Furthermore, if superstar Bryce Harper gets hot, he is capable of carrying any team for a month.
This team also gets Stephen Strasburg back for the stretch run. He will combine with perennial Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer to form a terrific front-end of a rotation. The Nats have a huge mountain to climb to make the 2018 MLB Playoffs, but anything can happen with their talent.
The Nationals will NOT make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
Five teams lead them in the Wild Card Standings. The Nationals have a record more similar to the San Francisco Giants and Pittsburgh Pirates than the teams in front of them competing for playoff position. Furthermore, Rizzo’s trades of Murphy and Adams shows even he does not believe in this team for 2018.
Analyzing the 2018 MLB Playoffs: NL Central Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers
The Chicago Cubs
Fans and players have built historic local rivalries in the MLB. The first two that come to mind are the New York Yankees vs the Boston Red Sox and the Giants vs the Dodgers who have battled from New York to California.
Every division has rivalries.
In the NL Central, the Cardinals long considered the Cubs as their top rivals. However, the Brewers might also consider the Cubs as their top rivals.
But what about the picture above? The one time the Brewers earned a World Series appearance, Milwaukee was an AL team in 1982 and the Cardinals beat them.
That being said, Cubs fans actually look down on Brewers fans even though Cubs fans are typically self-loathing. Cubs fans even go so far as to call the Brewers home park “Wrigley North” because they typically outnumber Brewers fans in Milwaukee’s Miller Park when the teams play there.
The Chicago Cubs will make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
The Northsiders already have a few games on the talented Brewers and surging Cardinals in late-August. Javy Baez is having an MVP caliber year for the franchise and most of the other roster pieces from the 2016 World Series lineup surround him.
Furthermore, the Cubs claimed and traded for the Nationals second baseman Daniel Murphy. Murphy has hit well over .300 since returning from a long DL stint earlier this season. He should help the team score more runs.
The Cubs have battled injuries this season, but others on their deep club have stepped up. It would be hard to see this team falling all the way out of 2018 MLB Playoffs contention.
The Chicago Cubs will NOT make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
Unlike in 2016, the Cubs pitching will fail them down the stretch. Closer Brandon Morrow has been out with injury until recently. Pedro Strop did well in his absence, but the Cubs bullpen is not as strong as 2016 when they used Aroldis Chapman down the stretch.
Furthermore, the Cubs let Jake Arrieta go during the offseason. The franchise signed Yu Darvish to replace him. But, after struggling with injuries all season, the Cubs have announced he will not return in 2018.
The Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers fans have historic hate for the Cubs and Cardinals that is hard to measure. But since the Brewers have a poor .424 winning percentage since joining the National League, they might not always be taken as seriously by those other franchises.
The Cubs-Cardinals have a deeper history. Just bring up Lou Brock’s name to a Cubs fan.
What is so much fun about the 2018 MLB Playoffs race in the NL Central is that all three of these rivals are very close in the standings for the division crown and Wild Card spots.
Technically, all three NL Central teams could make the 2018 MLB Playoffs. The Brewers led the NL Central for much of the 2018 season, but they have struggled in the second half of the year giving way to the Cubs just like 2017.
If the Brewers and Cardinals play decent baseball in September, however, they could make the 2018 MLB Playoffs with the Cubs.
The Brewers do still have several games against their NL Central rivals and they could make up lost ground quickly if they get hot during the head-to-head series’.
The Milwaukee Brewers will make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
This space could be used to repeat the popular stats of brilliant offseason acquisitions Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. It could be used to stress how Jesus Aguilar went from a guy who surprised many just making the team to being a nuclear bomb punch to the middle of the lineup. But that part of the narrative is easy to see.
Let’s look deeper.
The Brewers have arguably the easiest remaining schedule of any team competing for a National League Playoff spot. They have more off-days and 21 of their final 36 are at home.
People questioned and criticized Brewers general manager David Stearns for adding Mike Moustakas and Jonathan Schoop to the infield before the trade deadline at the end of July.
But, it allowed manager Craig Counsell to spell oft-injured Ryan Braun and offensively challenged Orlando Arcia. Some saw the vision and how the move would help these players at the plate.
Braun is hitting over one hundred points higher in August than any other month. And, his August OPS over is over 1.000. Furthermore, Arcia’s OPS is over two-hundred points higher than any other month.
As much as days off help the beat up pitching staff, the extra home games could be important. The young Brewers own a much better record at home than on the road.
The Milwaukee Brewers will NOT make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
The overused Milwaukee bullpen finally wears down and the hitters cannot consistently put up enough runs to give the team hardly any easy wins down the stretch.
On paper, the Brewers look like they should have a dangerous lineup.
Various whispers chant for Cain and Yelich to be written on MVP ballots. They are great defenders and the table setters the Brewers have needed in recent years.
However, none of the team’s power bats drive them in with enough frequency.
Even though the Brewers are in the middle of the league for at-bats with runners in scoring position, their OBP with the table set is one of the three worst.
With runners in scoring position, the Brewers strikeout more than all but one NL team, and their walk number in this situation is bottom five.
Furthermore, the Brewers ground into more double-plays than anyone other than the last place Cincinnati Reds in the National League.
Some might blame Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell for playing guys out of position and not maintaining a consistent batting order.
Whatever the case might be, this young team is close, but not quite ready to truly break out.
The St. Louis Cardinals
Never count out the St. Louis Cardinals. This team has a recent-history of hitting the jets and making a run at the end of seasons to make the playoffs and more.
In 2011, the Cards languished behind Milwaukee for most of the year. Most experts counted them out. But, St. Louis made a huge run in September and earned a Wild Card spot. They finished 2011 as World Series champions.
During the Yadier Molina era, the Cardianls have been an “it” team. Whether Mark McGwire or Albert Pujols or Chris Carpenter or Adam Wainwright or Matt Carpenter leads them, they find themselves competing for the playoffs nearly every year in recent memory.
The St. Louis Cardinals will make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
Despite all the injuries, the Cardinals persevere. Since naming Mike Shildt interim manager, the team has gotten hot.
Matt Carpenter got off to a horrible start to his season, but his bat started to light up the NL starting in May.
On the pitching side, injuries shook the team, especially in the starting rotation.
However, others have stepped up. Offseason free agent add Miles Mikolas and young breakthrough Jack Flaherty give the Cardinals a sneaky good rotation.
And then there is Yadier Molina.
The Cards drafted Molina in the year 2000, and they never looked back. Molina is one of the most underrated players in MLB history. St. Louis can do anything so long as Yadi stays healthy and leads the team.
The St. Louis Cardinals will NOT make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
Injuries rocked the Cardinals starting rotation all season. St. Louis lost standout starter Alex Reyes to season-ending lat surgery after just one start.
Carlos Martinez pitched like an ace for the Cardinals, but he keeps succumbing to injury as well.
Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright also spent most of the season on the DL.
During the offseason, the Cardinals signed Greg Holland to close games, but that did not work out and he has since been cut.
Furthermore, the Cardinals upper brass fired manager Mike Matheny in July. The Cards have a history of withstanding and overcoming regular season roadblocks to stay in contention for an MLB playoff spot all year, but they have never been challenged like this during that time.
Analyzing the 2018 MLB Playoffs: NL West Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Rockies
The Dodgers
The 2017 Los Angeles Dodgers made the playoffs and took it all the way to the World Series. In one of the greatest Fall Classic’s of all-time, the Dodgers lost Game 7 to the Houston Astros.
L.A. still has future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw leading the rotation. They lost a great player in Cory Seager to a season-ending injury, but they swung a trade for perennial All-Star Manny Machado to make up for that loss.
The huge market of L.A. allows them to outspend many other teams. This puts them in position to create a deep team of veterans and breakouts.
The Dodgers will make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
This is not the Washington Nationals. This team looks loaded with individual talent on paper, but it also has a recent history of winning together. The Dodgers battled all the way to Game 7 of the World Series last season.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
The Dodgers did run away with the NL West like many experts predicted they would. But, L.A. made up for random injuries to special players such as Seager and Justin Turner.
Turner is back and hitting well, and the trade for Machado made up for losing Seager.
Furthermore, the Dodgers sport a loaded rotation.
Along with Kershaw, they have Rich Hill, Kenta Maeda, and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Furthermore, Alex Wood has rejuvenated his career and Walker Buehler has contributed greatly despite this being his first full MLB season.
That makes six great options. The team will only need to rely on five to make the 2018 MLB Playoffs.
Kenley Jansen, arguably the best closer in baseball anchors the Dodgers bullpen.
The Dodgers will NOT make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
The Dodgers could be suffering from some of the same issues as the Milwaukee Brewers.
Max Muncy stepped up when players went down this season and has kept himself in the race for NL home run king. After trading for Machado and Brian Dozier, L.A. has too many infielders to play every game.
The outfield is overflowing as well. Joc Pederson, Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp, Cody Bellinger all need at-bats.
Manager Dave Roberts could have the same problem as Brewers manager Counsell. If the batting order and defensive alignment becomes too inconsistent, it could hurt the team.
The Arizona Diamondbacks
Annual MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt got off to an awful start, but he has bounced back beautifully. This team also has had its share of injuries, but manager Torey Lovullo has kept team momentum going.
Arizona plays well on the road and has a good run differential. This is the first season that the Diamondbacks have used a humidor on home baseballs, but that has not hurt the offense.
The Arizona Diamondbacks will make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
Along with Goldschmidt, David Peralta has kept his OPS at around .900. That is an All-Star-worthy high. Furthermore, players such as A.J. Pollock, Nick Ahmed, and Ketel Marte have contributed to the lineup this season.
Along with team ace Zack Greinke, Patrick Corbin has shut down teams this season. He leads the team in strikeouts.
Furthermore, the team ERA was second only to the deep Dodgers at the end of August.
With all the consistency, the Diamondbacks could win the division in 2018.
The Arizona Diamondbacks will NOT make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
Arizona expected big contributions from Robbie Ray and Zack Godley. Godley has somehow amassed well over ten wins already, but his peripheral stats do not look good.
Robbie Ray also has bad peripherals. He broke out in 2017. Some thought the addition of the humidor would make him a Cy Young candidate in 2017. It has not worked out that way.
The Colorado Rockies
Everyone knows offense is easy and pitching is difficult in the thin air at Colorado’s Coors Field.
The Rockies have tried many different approaches to building around their home ballpark. This past offseason, they loaded up their bullpen. The Rockies have a history of having tremendous hitters. Guys such as Andres Gallaraga, Larry Walker, and Matt Holliday have put up pinball numbers at Coors.
The recent Rockies teams have relied on Nolan Arredondo to lead with the bat.
The Colorado Rockies will make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
Some might not realize the Rockies are right there in the 2018 NL Playoffs race. There is history here. In 2007, the Rockies came out of nowhere to make the playoffs and then continue their tear all the way to the World Series.
Trevor Story seems to have hot and cold years, and this is a hot year. His overall WAR is second on the team to Arredondo. Meanwhile, Charlie Blackman and Carlos Gonzalez lengthen the lineup.
The Rockies real weapon is their starting rotation. Colorado has some bright young starters that continue to develop.
The Colorado Rockies will NOT make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
The Rockies have a few hitters going well, but the overall lineup does not look as good as years past.
This is a team that used to get 30 and 40 home run years out of Vinnie Castilla and Dante Bichette.
The young rotation has some upside, but not many would bet on Kyle Freeland vs Madison Bumgarner, Greinke, or Kershaw.
Furthermore, when one looks at the deeper team stats of the Rockies, their success looks like it was done with smoke and mirrors.
dark. Next. Gonzalez solidifying case as trade candidate
They actually have a negative run differential. That is not easy to do as a winning team and indicates the Rockies are walking a thin line maintaining a winning record.