2018 MLB Playoffs: Who Will Make National League Playoffs?
By Max Neibaur
Analyzing the 2018 MLB Playoffs: NL Central Cubs, Cardinals, Brewers
The Chicago Cubs
Fans and players have built historic local rivalries in the MLB. The first two that come to mind are the New York Yankees vs the Boston Red Sox and the Giants vs the Dodgers who have battled from New York to California.
Every division has rivalries.
In the NL Central, the Cardinals long considered the Cubs as their top rivals. However, the Brewers might also consider the Cubs as their top rivals.
But what about the picture above? The one time the Brewers earned a World Series appearance, Milwaukee was an AL team in 1982 and the Cardinals beat them.
That being said, Cubs fans actually look down on Brewers fans even though Cubs fans are typically self-loathing. Cubs fans even go so far as to call the Brewers home park “Wrigley North” because they typically outnumber Brewers fans in Milwaukee’s Miller Park when the teams play there.
The Chicago Cubs will make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
The Northsiders already have a few games on the talented Brewers and surging Cardinals in late-August. Javy Baez is having an MVP caliber year for the franchise and most of the other roster pieces from the 2016 World Series lineup surround him.
Furthermore, the Cubs claimed and traded for the Nationals second baseman Daniel Murphy. Murphy has hit well over .300 since returning from a long DL stint earlier this season. He should help the team score more runs.
The Cubs have battled injuries this season, but others on their deep club have stepped up. It would be hard to see this team falling all the way out of 2018 MLB Playoffs contention.
The Chicago Cubs will NOT make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
Unlike in 2016, the Cubs pitching will fail them down the stretch. Closer Brandon Morrow has been out with injury until recently. Pedro Strop did well in his absence, but the Cubs bullpen is not as strong as 2016 when they used Aroldis Chapman down the stretch.
Furthermore, the Cubs let Jake Arrieta go during the offseason. The franchise signed Yu Darvish to replace him. But, after struggling with injuries all season, the Cubs have announced he will not return in 2018.
The Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers fans have historic hate for the Cubs and Cardinals that is hard to measure. But since the Brewers have a poor .424 winning percentage since joining the National League, they might not always be taken as seriously by those other franchises.
The Cubs-Cardinals have a deeper history. Just bring up Lou Brock’s name to a Cubs fan.
What is so much fun about the 2018 MLB Playoffs race in the NL Central is that all three of these rivals are very close in the standings for the division crown and Wild Card spots.
Technically, all three NL Central teams could make the 2018 MLB Playoffs. The Brewers led the NL Central for much of the 2018 season, but they have struggled in the second half of the year giving way to the Cubs just like 2017.
If the Brewers and Cardinals play decent baseball in September, however, they could make the 2018 MLB Playoffs with the Cubs.
The Brewers do still have several games against their NL Central rivals and they could make up lost ground quickly if they get hot during the head-to-head series’.
The Milwaukee Brewers will make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
This space could be used to repeat the popular stats of brilliant offseason acquisitions Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich. It could be used to stress how Jesus Aguilar went from a guy who surprised many just making the team to being a nuclear bomb punch to the middle of the lineup. But that part of the narrative is easy to see.
Let’s look deeper.
The Brewers have arguably the easiest remaining schedule of any team competing for a National League Playoff spot. They have more off-days and 21 of their final 36 are at home.
People questioned and criticized Brewers general manager David Stearns for adding Mike Moustakas and Jonathan Schoop to the infield before the trade deadline at the end of July.
But, it allowed manager Craig Counsell to spell oft-injured Ryan Braun and offensively challenged Orlando Arcia. Some saw the vision and how the move would help these players at the plate.
Braun is hitting over one hundred points higher in August than any other month. And, his August OPS over is over 1.000. Furthermore, Arcia’s OPS is over two-hundred points higher than any other month.
As much as days off help the beat up pitching staff, the extra home games could be important. The young Brewers own a much better record at home than on the road.
The Milwaukee Brewers will NOT make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
The overused Milwaukee bullpen finally wears down and the hitters cannot consistently put up enough runs to give the team hardly any easy wins down the stretch.
On paper, the Brewers look like they should have a dangerous lineup.
Various whispers chant for Cain and Yelich to be written on MVP ballots. They are great defenders and the table setters the Brewers have needed in recent years.
However, none of the team’s power bats drive them in with enough frequency.
Even though the Brewers are in the middle of the league for at-bats with runners in scoring position, their OBP with the table set is one of the three worst.
With runners in scoring position, the Brewers strikeout more than all but one NL team, and their walk number in this situation is bottom five.
Furthermore, the Brewers ground into more double-plays than anyone other than the last place Cincinnati Reds in the National League.
Some might blame Milwaukee manager Craig Counsell for playing guys out of position and not maintaining a consistent batting order.
Whatever the case might be, this young team is close, but not quite ready to truly break out.
The St. Louis Cardinals
Never count out the St. Louis Cardinals. This team has a recent-history of hitting the jets and making a run at the end of seasons to make the playoffs and more.
In 2011, the Cards languished behind Milwaukee for most of the year. Most experts counted them out. But, St. Louis made a huge run in September and earned a Wild Card spot. They finished 2011 as World Series champions.
During the Yadier Molina era, the Cardianls have been an “it” team. Whether Mark McGwire or Albert Pujols or Chris Carpenter or Adam Wainwright or Matt Carpenter leads them, they find themselves competing for the playoffs nearly every year in recent memory.
The St. Louis Cardinals will make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
Despite all the injuries, the Cardinals persevere. Since naming Mike Shildt interim manager, the team has gotten hot.
Matt Carpenter got off to a horrible start to his season, but his bat started to light up the NL starting in May.
On the pitching side, injuries shook the team, especially in the starting rotation.
However, others have stepped up. Offseason free agent add Miles Mikolas and young breakthrough Jack Flaherty give the Cardinals a sneaky good rotation.
And then there is Yadier Molina.
The Cards drafted Molina in the year 2000, and they never looked back. Molina is one of the most underrated players in MLB history. St. Louis can do anything so long as Yadi stays healthy and leads the team.
The St. Louis Cardinals will NOT make the 2018 MLB Playoffs because…
Injuries rocked the Cardinals starting rotation all season. St. Louis lost standout starter Alex Reyes to season-ending lat surgery after just one start.
Carlos Martinez pitched like an ace for the Cardinals, but he keeps succumbing to injury as well.
Michael Wacha and Adam Wainwright also spent most of the season on the DL.
During the offseason, the Cardinals signed Greg Holland to close games, but that did not work out and he has since been cut.
Furthermore, the Cardinals upper brass fired manager Mike Matheny in July. The Cards have a history of withstanding and overcoming regular season roadblocks to stay in contention for an MLB playoff spot all year, but they have never been challenged like this during that time.