As the San Francisco Giants look to the future, it is time to start over.
If you are San Francisco Giants general manager Bobby Evans, you face a daunting post-season centered around this question: Do you blow up a team that has won three World Series in the past decade?
The answer, by the way, is very likely “yes.”
The Giants carried a $207 million payroll, second highest in the majors, into opening day featuring a lineup revitalized by the additions of veterans Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. That revitalization, prompted by a 23-game falloff in 2017 from the team’s 87-75 2016 record and wild card berth, hasn’t taken…at least not by Giants’ standards.
The 2018 Giants entered play this week two games under .500. Their 10 highest-paid players, all above age 30, several reduced to fill-in roles and most on expensive multi-year contracts, are averaging less than one Win Above Replacement.
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When the highest-paid players on a losing team are contributing only modestly if at all, that’s a recipe for a teardown.
There is emerging talent, notably starter Dereck Rodriguez. Since his callup, Rodriguez is 6-1 in 13 starts. Andrew Suarez, a 25-year-old rookie pitcher, has made less of a powerful impression. But he’s still 5-9 with a 4.42 ERA in 23 starts, suggesting future playability, if not stardom.
Evans’ problem may be shedding the Giants of some of his deteriorating parts. That has to happen in order to free up the assets needed to bring in some new help.
Take Jeff Samardzija. His 5-year, $90 million deal runs through 2020. He’s 1-5 with a 6.25 ERA in 10 starts, and that record isn’t likely to get any better because he’s on the disabled list with shoulder soreness. Last season, when Samardzija was healthy, he went 9-15 with a 4.42 ERA. If you’re a GM seeking a starter, what part of the above profile tempts you to take on two years worth of an $18 million per year obligation?
Johnny Cueto is even less marketable. Signed to a six-year, $130 million deal through 2022 as a potential co-ace with Madison Bumgarner, Cueto, 33, is recovering from Tommy John surgery in July, meaning he could miss most or all of 2019. What’s the value of a 35-year-old coming off Tommy John surgery?
Evans also needs to determine what to do with Mark Melancon, his “closer.” Melancon is owed about $30 million through 2020, yet the 33-year-old has saved just three games for San Francisco this season. For the record, Hunter Strickland, who’s making less than $1.6 million, has saved 13 games with a 2.97 ERA that is insignificantly higher than Melancon’s 2.83.
San Francisco Giants
Then there’s the regular lineup. McCutchen, Longoria, outfielder Hunter Pence, shortstop Brandon Crawford, first baseman Brandon Belt and catcher Buster Posey are all above age 30.
Pence is a free agent, batting .222 with a negative WAR, so as much of a hero as he’s been in the Bay Area, he’s gone.
McCutchen, also a free agent, is a more challenging proposition. He’s batting a so-so .254, but his on base skills support a marginally valuable 1.6 WAR. That means Evans may be tempted to talk. But for how many years? McCutchen is 31 and statistically he’s been just an average player for three seasons now. “Average” probably doesn’t help the Giants.
Posey, recovering from another injury, remains San Francisco’s most valuable asset, but he’s at an age where keeping him healthy may necessitate movement to first base. What does that mean for Belt, equally valuable but in the midst of his own 5-year, $72 million deal through 2021. Unlike most of Evans’s aging parts, Belt could bring real value in a trade that would have the side benefit of freeing up cash assets for future use.
That could be important because two other central aspects of what is envisioned as the Giants’ future – Bumgarner and second baseman Joe Panik — are both in line for big raises. Panik is arbitration eligible while Bumgarner is a prospective free agent.
Losing Bumgarner would suggest that the Giants want to blow everything up and tear down to scratch. The long-term deals to Cueto, Posey, and Longoria, however, would make that difficult. So, too, would San Francisco’s farm system, which features only two players ranked among MLB’s 100 best prospects. The best of them, No. 35 ranked Joey Bart, is a catcher in Short A who isn’t projected to be major-league ready until 2021. The other, No. 82 ranked outfielder Heliot Ramos, is also in A ball, and is also projected to be two years away.