MLB playoffs: An “ace-less” National League playoffs?
As the MLB playoffs near, we could be looking at a National League field without a true ace
The MLB playoffs begin in just 5 weeks, and if the playoffs were to start today, the National League could be suffering from a severe lack of star power on the mound.
The names begin to roll off the tongue the last few years of dominant starters who carried their respective clubs deep into the postseason – Madison Bumgarner, Clayton Kershaw, Corey Kluber, Jake Arrieta, Jon Lester, Adam Wainwright – aces that dominated to help their team be able to make the World Series and/or win the whole thing.
This year’s MLB playoffs class from the National League could end up not featuring a single guy who is part of that elite “ace” club. Certainly, Lester could be part of the playoffs, but age has taken the luster off his “ace” label.
In fact, of the top 3 pitchers in bWAR in the National League – Aaron Nola, Max Scherzer, and Jacob deGrom, none would be in the playoffs if they started today. Of the top 10 in the National League in bWAR among pitchers, half would not make the playoffs, and only 3 would be on teams that were division winners.
While bWAR isn’t the true determination of an “ace”, many of those pitchers who would be considered an ace are not in the playoffs if the playoffs start right now. Most would put Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Jacob deGrom, and Madison Bumgarner in that class, and many would say that Aaron Nola has taken his final step to that level this year. In the National League,
The next tier of pitchers that aren’t quite “aces” but are guys you would be very happy having at the top of your rotation are the guys who seem to dot the rotations of National League representatives for the MLB playoffs this year.
Let’s take a look at those rotations:
Arizona Diamondbacks
In reviewing the top 10 in bWAR right now, the Arizona Diamondbacks have arguably the best pairing, with #5 and #6 in Zack Greinke and Patrick Corbin. The interesting thing in Arizona will be how they put together the rotation behind them for the MLB playoffs.
The Diamondbacks currently lead the National League West, but the division is plenty contentious with Colorado and Los Angeles staying within a couple of games. The way the battle in the NL Central, the Diamondbacks may need to win their division in order to ensure they’re in the playoffs as right now, they’ve got a worse record than the second wild card team.
In that rotation, Corbin and Greinke have had good years all season long in 2018, with Corbin sporting a 10-5 record over 27 starts and 168 2/3 innings, with a 3.15 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, and a 40/207 BB/K ratio. Greinke’s been equally good with a 13-8 record over 27 starts and 168 2/3 innings, posting a 2.93 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and a 34/171 BB/K ratio.
Most likely, Arizona will give the other two playoff rotation spots to Zack Godley and the surprising Clay Buchholz. Godley has had an ERA a bit inflated on the year, but his FIP of 3.68 says he’s been a better pitcher than his 4.59 ERA shows, with 147 innings and a 65/157 BB/K ratio.
Buchholz has been a revelation, going 7-2 with a 2.07 ERA over 14 starts and 87 innings since the Diamondbacks signed him off of the scrap heap. Interestingly, it seems most contenders have a starter with a similar backstory.
That would put Robbie Ray into the bullpen, and frankly, with his dynamic stuff, that would only add to an already deep and talented Diamondbacks bullpen that features its five primary members with no ERA over 4, and plenty of strikeouts in bunches.
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves have tied for the most pitchers used by any organization this year, but they’ve made it work, and in general, four of their rotation spots have been consistent when healthy. The addition of Kevin Gausman has given them one of the more talented arms that many always saw with more in the tank than what he showed in Baltimore.
If one were to break down all pitchers in the NL that have made 3 starts over August, the Braves have two of the best performers in the league in Gausman and Mike Foltynewicz, both of whom have been dominant over the month.
Those two would certainly be the #1 and #2 in the Braves rotation in the MLB playoffs, with lefty Sean Newcomb bringing in the #3 spot. It’s after that where they’ll have an interesting competition.
The Braves have long leaned on veteran Julio Teheran to lead their staff, but with the young arms from the deep Braves farm staff have begun to push Teheran into a more well-suited mid-rotation role, where his rubber arm works well, though that isn’t exactly a big thing in the postseason.
Teheran’s stuff may be less than elite, but he looks lethal compared to the raw stuff of veteran Anibal Sanchez, who has rediscovered himself in Atlanta. Once a hard-throwing pitcher with the Marlins and Tigers, Sanchez has learned to sequence and change speeds plenty, leading to a 3.05 ERA over 103 1/3 innings this year with a 32/100 BB/K ratio.
The Braves have run a lot of arms through their bullpen, but they have some very impressive arms as you start to pare down the relievers to a bullpen for the MLB playoffs, leaving just the best arms.
Chicago Cubs
Like the Braves, the Cubs are streaking toward the MLB playoffs behind an addition picked up in July as Cole Hamels has tallied a 0.69 ERA over 6 starts and 39 innings, posting a 11/38 BB/K ratio.
His strong performance has been huge as the offseason splurge on Tyler Chatwood and Yu Darvish has led to a combined 141 2/3 innings and a 5.15 ERA. Chatwood has walked more than he’s struck out on the season, and only an injury is going to likely keep Chatwood from walking 100 on the season.
So, Hamels is in. He should be joined in the Cubs MLB playoffs rotation by fellow lefties Jon Lester and Jose Quintana as well as right-hander Kyle Hendricks.
None of those pitchers has had a dominant season by any means, with Lester sporting the best ERA at 3.67, Hendricks leading the group in strikeouts with 131, and Hendricks also leading the group with a 1.20 WHIP. One big concern for the Cubs as they prepare for the MLB playoffs is that both Lester and Quintana have FIPs over 4.7.
The issue the Cubs will have is that none of the Cubs top 4 is a dominant pitcher by any measure, meaning the Cubs will have to rely heavily on their defense and bullpen. That could be why you continue to see the Cubs focusing not on getting a dynamic starter, but instead lengthening out their bullpen and picking up additional high-quality bench pieces.
Milwaukee Brewers
One team that many thought would be making significant additions to their starting rotation in July and/or August was the Milwaukee Brewers, and while they have made public claims in the month of August to show that they were still pursuing a starter. They just didn’t get any of those guys, so, barring anything coming out of the last two days of August, they’ll roll with what they currently have.
The Brewers have been relying on one of those veteran surprises all season in Jhoulys Chacin, who has become a very serviceable mid-rotation starter, but in this rotation, he’s had to serve as the de facto ace, making 28 starts and tossing 157 innings, with a 3.61 ERA and a 59/129 BB/K ratio.
Since bringing him in, Wade Miley has been just as dominant from the left side, with 10 starts of a 2.32 ERA. The Brewers other 3 starters each have ERAs over 4, but Freddy Peralta would seem to be one that would end up in the playoff rotation, with 86 strikeouts in 69 1/3 innings.
The Brewers will be relying on multiple inning appearances from players like Josh Hader and Corbin Burnes if they have any chance of making it in the MLB playoffs. With a high likelihood that they will be coming from the Wild Card if they do make it, the Brewers could choose to go heavy with Burnes and two starters as their plan for the first 5-6 innings at least.
St. Louis Cardinals
One team that had a guy on the cusp of “ace” level when the season began, the Cardinals have seen former ace Carlos Martinez struggle with injuries all season, which has shown in his control, as he’s walked over 10% of batters he’s faced. After getting healthy finally in the minor leagues, the Cardinals have chosen to utilize Martinez out of the bullpen the rest of the season.
That sent the Cardinals into the mode of using a host of their talented young arms that were on the cusp, and the more they’ve entrusted those arms, the more they’ve been rewarded.
Offseason signee Miles Mikolas has been the staff leader throughout the season, tossing 162 innings, going 13-3 with a 2.94 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, posting a 26/112 BB/K ratio. Mikolas has been successful for certain through the regular season, but his lack of strikeout ability will likely be something to watch in the MLB playoffs should the Cardinals find themselves there.
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Easily the team’s hottest pitcher in the second half has been Jack Flaherty, and it’s entirely possible that he would be the guy the Cardinals would send out as starter for a Wild Card game, as he’s established himself with a 2.87 ERA over 122 1/3 IP, posting a 41/149 BB/K ratio.
From Mikolas and Flaherty, the Cardinals have a number of options, but certainly based on recent results, Austin Gomber would be given a long look as a playoff starter as he’s been nothing short of dominant as the Cardinals have streaked to the top Wild Card spot. Luke Weaver has made the most starts, but his numbers haven’t been great. John Gant‘s stuff may not be overpowering, but he’s been quite effective, with a 3.56 ERA over 86 innings.
The piece that could weigh interestingly for the Cardinals should they make it past the Wild Card round would be Michael Wacha. He’s posted a 3.20 ERA this year when healthy over 15 starts, but he recently was roughed up in his last rehab start, so how soon he’ll be up and whether he’ll be a guy the Cardinals want to hand the ball to as a starter in the MLB playoffs will be something to be seen.
Top 15 RF in MLB history. dark. Next
There you have it. Six teams, no real ace, all currently in line to represent the National League in the MLB playoffs. Would this make you less likely to watch, or does the more unpredictable nature of the pitching possibly even make it more exciting? Comment below!