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National League MVP Race with One Month Left

By Michael Francis |
LOS ANGELES, CA - AUGUST 20: St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Matt Carpenter (13) gets a high five from St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Jose Martinez (38) after hitting a solo homer in the ninth inning during the St. Louis Cardinals game versus the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 20, 2018, at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - AUGUST 20: St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Matt Carpenter (13) gets a high five from St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Jose Martinez (38) after hitting a solo homer in the ninth inning during the St. Louis Cardinals game versus the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 20, 2018, at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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WASHINGTON, DC – AUGUST 09: Freddie Freeman #5 of the Atlanta Braves bats against the Washington Nationals in the first inning at Nationals Park on August 9, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)
WASHINGTON, DC – AUGUST 09: Freddie Freeman #5 of the Atlanta Braves bats against the Washington Nationals in the first inning at Nationals Park on August 9, 2018 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images) /

There are many good award races heating up down the stretch, but maybe none are as wide open as the National League Most Valuable Player. The National League MVP race is full of worthy contenders but only one can take home the hardware.

September is almost here and the playoff races are heating up. With a month left in the season there is still several spots up for grabs and many exciting things that could happen between now and the end of the year. This is also the last month for players to make their cases for off-season awards and virtually every award is still up in the air. There are favorites and front-runners but for the most part each award still has a hand full of players that have a legitimate shot at winning. Let’s take a look at some of the “finalists” for the National League MVP race with a month to go and see who is likely to come out on top.

Freddie Freeman

Atlanta Braves first baseman, Freddie Freeman, has long been the face of the Braves and has been the leader of the young and resurgent Atlanta club. Freeman currently ranks fourth in the National League in fWAR with 4.8 wins above replacement and his 142 wRC+ ranks sixth in the NL among qualified hitters. If voters want to go by the more traditional triple crown stats, Freeman ranks fourth in the NL with a .311 batting average, only 22nd in the league in home runs with 20 and tenth in the league in RBIs with 81. While Freeman is low on the list for home runs, he is not without power as he has slugged .512 this season, good for tenth in the league. Freeman also plays every single day and rarely strikes out. He also leads all National League first basemen in Fangraph’s defensive rating, Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating. Regardless of what metrics you are looking at, Freddie Freeman is clearly one of the best players in the National League.

Freddie Freeman was likely the favorite to win the National League MVP for much of the season but has faded over the past month as some other contenders have emerged. Freeman has had somewhat of a power outage over the past month or so that has really seen his numbers fall back to earth. However, Freeman probably still has the best narrative of any of the contenders as he is leading this young, exciting Braves team back to the playoffs for the first time since 2013. If he can find regain his early season power stroke and have a big September that helps propel the Braves to the playoffs, then Freddie Freeman will have as good a shot as anyone to win the MVP award.

PHOENIX, AZ – AUGUST 26: Paul Goldschmidt #44 of the Arizona Diamondbacks hits a three run home run in the third inning of the MLB game against the Seattle Mariners at Chase Field on August 26, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. All players across MLB wear nicknames on their backs as well as colorful, non-traditional uniforms featuring alternate designs inspired by youth-league uniforms during Players Weekend. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images)
PHOENIX, AZ – AUGUST 26: Paul Goldschmidt #44 of the Arizona Diamondbacks hits a three run home run in the third inning of the MLB game against the Seattle Mariners at Chase Field on August 26, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. All players across MLB wear nicknames on their backs as well as colorful, non-traditional uniforms featuring alternate designs inspired by youth-league uniforms during Players Weekend. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images) /

Paul Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt is having a very similar year to Freddie Freeman except with more of a three true outcomes approach. Freeman is slashing .311/.394/.512 compared to Goldschmidt’s .291/.395/.541. Goldschmidt is also striking out 25% of the time and walking 13.6% compared to Freeman’s 17.9% K rate and 11.3% BB rate. They each have virtually the same fWAR, they just got there a little differently. Goldschmidt hits more homers, 30 compared to Freeman’s 20, walks more and strikes out more. Freeman gets to his production through contact while Goldschmidt has delivered through power. Power is more valuable so Goldy has actually been the better hitter to this point in the season exemplified by his 150 wRC+ compared to Freeman’s 142.

Freeman’s fielding is what has kept their value even, though it is tough to discern much from single season defensive numbers and Goldschmidt has always graded out as a good defender as well. As close as these two players are at this point in the season either one could make a major push toward the award with a strong September.

I still contend that between the two Freeman has a better narrative behind him as he is leading a Braves team back to the playoffs that weren’t even supposed to be contending this year, but Goldschmidt has the potential to eliminate that narrative with a big final month at the plate.

Matt Carpenter

The odds-on favorite to win the award right now is probably Matt Carpenter. Carpenter is leading the National League in fWAR with 5.3 wins above replacement and wRC+ with 154. Most of this production has come from a monster second half of the season as Carpenter was actually quite terrible to begin the season. Through May 15, Carpenter was slashing a meager .140/.286/.272 good for only a 58 wRC+.

Since that day Carpenter has turned it around in a big way slashing .316/.421/.672 for a whopping 186 wRC+. There is no doubt that there were more people talking in May that he should be sent down to the minors than there were claiming that he would make a run at the MVP award, but here we are.

If the voting were today, Matt Carpenter would probably be the National League MVP. He has been the best player to this point and he has really catapulted the Cardinals back into the playoff race. He has slowed down lately from the ridiculous pace he had been on but he is still performing very well.

If Carpenter’s production falls off much in September and either Freeman or Goldschmidt has a hot month, things could get very interesting. Carpenter’s candidacy might also hinge on his team’s ability to make the playoffs. While the Cardinals are currently in possession of the first wildcard spot, there is still a lot that can happen over the next few weeks.

CHICAGO, IL – JULY 21: Javier Baez #9 of the Chicago Cubs reacts after making a play during the ninth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals during game one of a doubleheader on July 21, 2018 at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. The Cubs won 7-2. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL – JULY 21: Javier Baez #9 of the Chicago Cubs reacts after making a play during the ninth inning against the St. Louis Cardinals during game one of a doubleheader on July 21, 2018 at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. The Cubs won 7-2. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images) /

Who should be the National League MVP?

Rightly or wrongly the performance of the team overall will likely have a major impact on this race. The Braves, Diamondbacks and the Cardinals all currently occupy playoff spots but there is still a long way to go. If any of these teams miss out on the postseason, it will likely be difficult for their star player to win the award.

Ignoring team performance, this should be a very close race that will likely come down to the very end. There could even be other challengers for the award such as Milwaukee’s Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich, Rockies third baseman, Nolan Arenado, or Chicago’s Javier Baez.

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With no one truly distinguishing themselves at this point, one of the league’s great pitchers could even be in the conversation. For instance, New York Mets ace pitcher, Jacob deGrom, leads all National League players in fWAR by a considerable margin.

It is hard to imagine a pitcher on such a bad team winning the Most Valuable Player award but the case can certainly be made that he is deserving. With all of these contenders, this race is going to come down to how the players perform over this last month of the season.

As of right now, the race is very close, but I think one player is going to have a strong month of September and pull ahead to take home the National League MVP award.

Prediction: Freddie Freeman

Next. Yankees get McCutchen. dark

So what do you think? Are Carpenter, Freeman, and Goldschmidt the three National League MVP frontrunners, or is someone else a better option? Comment below!

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