Call to the pen
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National League MVP Race with One Month Left

By Michael Francis

LOS ANGELES, CA - AUGUST 20: St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Matt Carpenter (13) gets a high five from St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Jose Martinez (38) after hitting a solo homer in the ninth inning during the St. Louis Cardinals game versus the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 20, 2018, at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - AUGUST 20: St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Matt Carpenter (13) gets a high five from St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Jose Martinez (38) after hitting a solo homer in the ninth inning during the St. Louis Cardinals game versus the Los Angeles Dodgers on August 20, 2018, at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, CA. (Photo by Peter Joneleit/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
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National League MVP
PHOENIX, AZ – AUGUST 26: Paul Goldschmidt #44 of the Arizona Diamondbacks hits a three run home run in the third inning of the MLB game against the Seattle Mariners at Chase Field on August 26, 2018 in Phoenix, Arizona. All players across MLB wear nicknames on their backs as well as colorful, non-traditional uniforms featuring alternate designs inspired by youth-league uniforms during Players Weekend. (Photo by Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images) /

Paul Goldschmidt

Paul Goldschmidt is having a very similar year to Freddie Freeman except with more of a three true outcomes approach. Freeman is slashing .311/.394/.512 compared to Goldschmidt’s .291/.395/.541. Goldschmidt is also striking out 25% of the time and walking 13.6% compared to Freeman’s 17.9% K rate and 11.3% BB rate. They each have virtually the same fWAR, they just got there a little differently. Goldschmidt hits more homers, 30 compared to Freeman’s 20, walks more and strikes out more. Freeman gets to his production through contact while Goldschmidt has delivered through power. Power is more valuable so Goldy has actually been the better hitter to this point in the season exemplified by his 150 wRC+ compared to Freeman’s 142.

Freeman’s fielding is what has kept their value even, though it is tough to discern much from single season defensive numbers and Goldschmidt has always graded out as a good defender as well. As close as these two players are at this point in the season either one could make a major push toward the award with a strong September.

I still contend that between the two Freeman has a better narrative behind him as he is leading a Braves team back to the playoffs that weren’t even supposed to be contending this year, but Goldschmidt has the potential to eliminate that narrative with a big final month at the plate.

Matt Carpenter

The odds-on favorite to win the award right now is probably Matt Carpenter. Carpenter is leading the National League in fWAR with 5.3 wins above replacement and wRC+ with 154. Most of this production has come from a monster second half of the season as Carpenter was actually quite terrible to begin the season. Through May 15, Carpenter was slashing a meager .140/.286/.272 good for only a 58 wRC+.

Since that day Carpenter has turned it around in a big way slashing .316/.421/.672 for a whopping 186 wRC+. There is no doubt that there were more people talking in May that he should be sent down to the minors than there were claiming that he would make a run at the MVP award, but here we are.

If the voting were today, Matt Carpenter would probably be the National League MVP. He has been the best player to this point and he has really catapulted the Cardinals back into the playoff race. He has slowed down lately from the ridiculous pace he had been on but he is still performing very well.

If Carpenter’s production falls off much in September and either Freeman or Goldschmidt has a hot month, things could get very interesting. Carpenter’s candidacy might also hinge on his team’s ability to make the playoffs. While the Cardinals are currently in possession of the first wildcard spot, there is still a lot that can happen over the next few weeks.

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