American League MVP: Down to a trio?

With an assumed 3-headed race for the American League MVP, the final month could be vital to determine the winner

The conventional wisdom is that the American League MVP contest is down to three names: Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, and Jose Ramirez. If so, their performances during September may go a long way toward establishing the final order of finish.

There’s still the outside possibility, however, of a surprise entrant. While it would take an exceptional finish to actually steal the award from one of the favorites, several players have positioned themselves to become factors in the final voting outcome.

As is often the case, the performance of the contenders’ teams down the home stretch is also likely to be a factor. A late run by the Yankees, Athletics, or Mariners could propel one of their stars closer to the forefront of the competition.

The American League MVP race is also likely to feature a couple of evergreens, candidates who annually make a run at the award and whose 2018 seasons have, as usual, been award-worthy. After all, it wouldn’t be an American League MVP discussion without the name of Mike Trout, who hasn’t finished outside the voting’s top 5 since 2012, and who doesn’t figure to miss that elite company this year, either.

Beyond that, some surprises are likely. The Tampa Bay Rays may not be in post-season contention, but surely their surprisingly strong season deserves some recognition in the MVP voting.

For the record, here are the top 5 finishers from 2017: 1. Jose Altuve, Houston; 2. Aaron Judge, New York; 3. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland; 4. Mike Trout, Los Angeles/Anaheim; 5. Francisco Lindor, Cleveland. Of those five, only Judge, sidelined since late July with a wrist injury, might not be a voting factor.

With that one critical month remaining on the schedule, here’s an assessment of the candidacies of 10 likely to figure prominently in the MVP balloting.

Mookie Betts, RF, Boston Red Sox

Old-school stats: Betts leads the AL in batting at .342 and is tied for first in runs scored with 110. He has 29 home runs, 70 RBIs, and 26 stolen bases.

New-school stats: His 1.071 OPS leads the AL, as does his 8.4 WAR.

The case for Betts: He is the heart and soul of the team with the best record in baseball, the Boston Red Sox. They are 81-32 in games Betts starts, 12-11 when he doesn’t. Beyond that, Betts has been unfailingly consistent; his batting average hasn’t dipped below .330 since the season’s first week.  Unlike a certain teammate who shall be named momentarily, Betts’ credentials are multi-dimensional. He plays a solid right field, as attested to by his .996 fielding average – he’s committed just one error all season – and 2.22 range factor that also ranks among the league’s best. No surprise there; Betts led AL right fielders in range factor last season.

The case against Betts:  Unless he slumps drastically in September, naysayers will have to resort to one of two arguments in order to cast a vote for somebody other than Betts. The first argument is simply that as good as Betts has been, somebody else has simply been better. The second argument is that in terms of raw power, Betts is good but not great. He ranks behind his teammate, J.D. Martinez, in both total bases and home runs.  He trails two players – Alex Bregman and Francisco Lindor – in doubles.

J.D. Martinez, DH, Boston Red Sox

Old-school stats: Martinez leads the AL in base hits (166), slugging average (.647) and RBIs (115). He has hit 39 home runs, and may win that title as well.  His .335 batting average trails only his teammate, Betts.

New-school stats: At +5.6, Martinez ranks in a tie for fourth in the American League for WAR.  He is fourth in Adjusted OPS+, third in Adjusted Batting Wins and third (behind Trout and Betts) in Adjusted Batting Wins. He has a 3.5 Win Probability Added, second in the AL behind Alex Bregman.

The case for Martinez: For starters, he’s having far and away a better season than even last year, when he hit 45 homers and drove in 104 runs. Although the Red Sox have been under only nominal pennant pressure, Martinez has continued to play like his hair is on fire; he’s batting .382 over the last month with a 1.135 OPS. With two outs and runners in scoring position, Martinez has hit .435 this year, so his clutch game is borderline off the charts.

The case against Martinez: Voters may find his dimensionality an issue. Of his 129 appearances, two-thirds have come as a DH, and while he has not committed an error in the field this year,  that may be due in part to his range, which to be polite is modest.

A Houston Astro

The defending World Series champions have two logical candidates, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman.

Altuve old-school stats: .323/.386/.458 slash line, 10 homers, 51 RBIs.

Altuve new-school stats: 3.8 WAR.

The case for Altuve: He’s the defending champ, his Astros are on their way to a run at a World Series repeat, and he’s been a big part of it.

The case against Altuve: It’s playing time. Altuve missed about 20 August games with an injury, cutting into his numbers. As 2017 MVP, he hit 24 home runs; this year he’s barely into double figures.

Bregman old-school stats: .290/.392/.531, 26 home runs, 87 RBIs, a league-leading 43 doubles.

Bregman new-school stats: 5.5 WAR and a league leading 4.1 Win Probability Added.

The case for Bregman:  Whether it’s old-school or new-school stats, Bregman generally holds a clear edge over his teammate and the defending champ, Altuve. He leads his second baseman in every traditional stat except batting average and also leads him 150-131 in OPS+.

The case against Bregman: There are three. The first is Altuve’s substantial shadow. The second is that the contest is not merely between Altuve and Bregman. The third is that, as with Ramirez in Cleveland, the sense lingers that the Astros would have been successful, if not dominant, in the AL West with or without Bregman.

Mike Trout, CF, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Old-school stats: .307 batting average, .456 on base average (leads the AL), .613 slugging average, 31 home runs, 63 RBIs and 21 stolen bases.

New-school stats: 7.3 WAR, 183 OPS+, 2.5 Situation Wins Added, 25.17 Base-Out Runs Added, 25.0 Power-Speed#.

The case for Trout: It’s the same case as every year. Starting with his 2012 rookie season, Trout has finished second, second, first, second, first and fourth in the MVP vote. His 2018 numbers are comparable to all those seasons; why shouldn’t he again be a serious candidate? He leads the league in walks (with 106), his on base average is likely to lead the league for a third straight season, and don’t rule out Trout overtaking Betts for the OPS title; he presently trails Mookie just 1.071 to 1.069. Finally, consider what he’s working with. The man has 31 home runs and 56 extra base hits, but only 63 RBIs…would some Angel please get on base in front of him.

The case against Trout: Of course Trout leads the league in walks and on base. Look at the rest of the Angels lineup; would you pitch to Mike Trout? So in effect Trout’s credentials are swelled by the weaknesses around him. Take away that league-leading on base average and monster OPS and you still have a superb player – but not an MVP resume.

Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians

Old-school stats: .284/.360/.519 slash line with 29 home runs and 78 RBIs.

New-school stats: Lindor has a 5.8 WAR, and his 2.3 defensive WAR trails only Matt Chapman and Andrelton Simmons. At 25, he is tied with Trout for third in Power-Speed#.

The case for Lindor: The world’s ideal shortstop plays every day, makes all the routine plays, makes many of the impossible ones, and more than carries his weight offensively. That, in a sentence, is Francisco Lindor. Taking the field in all but one of Cleveland’s 134 games to date, he leads the American League in at bats, plate appearances and runs scored. His fielding average and range factor, while not atop the AL, are solid. Finally, check out his defensive WAR, trailing only Andrelton Simmons among AL shortstops.

The case against Lindor: His offensive credentials are nice but hardly overwhelming, witness that slash line. Beyond that, even his biggest fans in Cleveland would be hard-pressed to make the case that Lindor is a more valuable Indian than Ramirez, whose numbers are universally superior.  And if you’re not the best guy on your team, how can you be the best in the league?  To truly become an MVP factor, Lindor needs to enjoy an exceptional September.

Blake Snell, pitcher, Tampa Bay Rays

Old-school stats: 17-5, 2.02 ERA in 26 starts, 151.2 innings pitched.

New-school stats: Snell has a 5.4 WAR and a 182 Adjusted ERA+, third in the league behind Chris Sale and Trevor Bauer. His WHIP is 1.009.

The case for Snell: Seriously, the Rays are 71-63 playing 38 games against the Red Sox and Yankees. There has to be a reason, and Snell’s it. His 17 wins leads the league, he ranks second in ERA and he’s packing a 1.009 WHIP that ranks fifth. With 177 Ks, he’s averaging better than one per inning as a starter, and he’s done that while walking just 54. Finally since the trades of Chris Archer and Nathan Eovaldi there’s his unique status as the Rays’ only established starter to consider. If nothing else, that ought to be worth a sympathy vote.

The case against Snell: Frankly, the new-school stats are not especially kind to him. He is not among the top 10 in Win Probability Added, Situation Wins Saved or Base-Out Runs Saved, and he ranks behind Bauer, Sale and Corey Kluber in Adjusted Pitching Runs. So if you‘re going to vote for a pitcher, two questions naturally arise: 1. Why would you do that in a league featuring Ramirez, Betts and Martinez; 2. Why pick Snell ahead of Bauer or Sale?

Matt Chapman, 3B, Oakland A’s.

Old-school stats:  .279/.363/.525, 22 home runs, 53 RBIs.

New-school stats: Chapman has a 7.8 WAR  and 156 Adjusted OPS+.

The case for Chapman: In his first full season – Chapman was a June 2017 callup – he has established himself as the centerpiece of a lineup on the rise. He is only 25, so there’s still room to grow. But the growth so far has been eye-catching: he ranks third in the AL in WAR and fifth in Adjusted OPS+. Oakland’s every-day lineup has the power of Khris Davis and Matt Olson, but neither man approaches Chapman as an overall bathandler, witness his advantages over both of them in batting average (about 30 points), and on base average (about 40 points).  Consider that the Athletics are contending in the AL West and wild card with a rotation featuring Brett Anderson, Edwin Jackson and Trevor Cahill. Something in their lineup must be rolling, and that something is Matt Chapman.

The case against Chapman: As impressive as Chapman’s contributions have been to Oakland’s surprising success, they do not rise to the level set by any of the more prominent candidates for this award. Ask yourself whose 2018 you’d rather have: Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Jose Ramirez or Matt Chapman? Case closed.

Some Yankee

Given that the Yankees are 36 games above.500, somebody on their roster certainly deserves consideration. But who?

If you’re willing to overlook his absence from the lineup – now into its second month — it might be Aaron Judge.  Before he was sidelined by a wrist injury July 26, Judge was batting .285 with 26 homers, 61 RBIs, a .398 on base and a .548 slugging average. He still leads the team in two major rate categories, slugging average and on base average as well as WAR (at 5.9). New York is 21-15 in his absence, but the Yanks have lost three games in the standings to the Red Sox. Judge also has the pedigree, having finished second behind Altuve in last year’s voting.

Another option is Giancarlo Stanton. He leads the team in home runs (with 33) and RBIs (with 84), and following  modest start he’s come alive in Judge’s absence.

How about Gleybar Torres? The rookie middle infielder is batting .282 with 22 home runs, and he’s turned what was expected to be a team weakness (second base) into a strength.

Finally there’s rookie third baseman Miguel Andujar. His .297 average leads Yankee regulars, he’s added 23 home runs and 75 RBIs.

Jean Segura, SS, Seattle Mariners

Old-school stats: .321/.353/.442, with 9 home runs and 60 RBIs. Segura also has 20 stolen bases.

New-school stats: 4.2 WAR.

The case for Segura: When Robinson Cano was sidelined of half a season by a violation of the banned substance agreement, the presumption was that the Mariners would sink. For the most part, that didn’t happen, and Segura was a large measure of the reason. He ranks fourth behind Betts, Martinez and Altuve in the batting race. If the vote were taken today, Segura wouldn’t win. But suppose, just suppose, that Segura finishes in the .330 range and the Mariners rally to catch Oakland for the league’s second wild card spot. Factoring in the half-season long loss of Cano, how would Segura’s MVP credentials stand then?

The case against Segura:  His candidacy rises and falls with his team’s status, and as of the moment that status is “non-qualifier.” And while the batting average is impressive, most of the complementary numbers are relatively ordinary.  When Altuve won the 2017 MVP, his slugging average was .547, 105 percentage points better than Segura’s. Segura’s 131 OPS+ is nicely above league average, but it pales by comparison with Trout’s 183 or Betts’ 177.

The American League MVP race definitely has some other entrants that could make an impact on the race, but certainly it still looks like a three-horse race. Which horse are you placing your bet on? Comment below!