New York Mets: Amed Rosario Flashing Breakout Potential
Shortstop for the New York Mets, Amed Rosario, has flashed his potential over the past few weeks. What has he been able to improve?
Amed Rosario, the young shortstop for the New York Mets, has had an underwhelming first year-plus of Major League Baseball. Being a top prospect, Rosario was expected to perform from the getgo. Early on, the youngster showed that he still needed more development and seasoning at the Major League level. We are now beginning to see signs of the shortstops potential.
Going into play on Tuesday, Rosario has hit seven home runs, driven in 43 RBIs and has stolen18 bags while slashing .253/.292/.376. The shortstop is also striking out in 21.5% of his at-bats and is walking a mere 5.27% of the time.
On the outside, these stats are a little underwhelming. Rosario is currently producing below a replacement level value. We begin to see his story change by digging into his recent performance.
Rosario’s athletic ability has marveled fans and scouts from the beginning. The 22-year-old has always played an aggressive style of baseball, he just needed to mold his style and approach to fit the shape and speed of the game at the Major League level. The game seems to be slowing down for the youngster.
Mickey Callaway and his coaching staff have been working hard with Rosario and it is beginning to show. He has clearly been more confident and successful on the field and his recent stats depict major signs of improvement
Improved Plate Discipline
Through his first 100 games, Rosario produced much like the player we saw in 2017. The athletic youngster hit four home runs, drove in 27 RBIs, and slashed .237/.280/.359.
The righty struggled as he mostly hit in the bottom third of the batting order. Rosario is a very aggressive hitter, it is understandable that he struggled while hitting seventh, eighth or ninth. Opposing pitchers aren’t typically inclined to give the bottom feeders much to hit because they are often followed by weaker hitters or the pitcher.
From the beginning, the youngster struggled to lay off pitches out of the strike zone and this led to his strikeout numbers skyrocketing. Rosario struck out 22.1% of the time and walked only 5.47% of the time during this initial stretch of 2018.
In the 29 games since the beginning of August, Rosario has looked much more like the player that he was in the minor leagues. Over this time, he has hit three home runs, drove in 16 runs and is slashing .294/.323/.421. While his walk rate is slightly down, it has been 4.76% during this stretch, Rosario has managed cut his strikeout rate down to 19.8%.
Per MLB.com, this result can likely be linked to an increase in his plate discipline. Throughout the year, Rosario has started to swing at more strikes and is missing less and less on those swings.
During this time, Rosario has also mostly hit out of the leadoff spot. While it is hard to directly link the lineup change to his increased performance, it is reasonable to assume that he may be getting better pitches to hit, thus resulting in higher contact percentages. Rosario has exclusively hit in the leadoff spot since August 5 and in these 26 games, he has slashed .304/.336/.435. Either way, Rosario has been chasing less and his production has improved.
From the beginning, Rosario has shown that he has the tools to be a star. Consistency and solid plate discipline were skills that needed to be improved and his performance lately is a big step in the right direction.
Hard Hit Percentage
Throughout 2018, Amed Rosario has also been hitting the ball with more authority. Via Baseball Savant, Amed Rosario struggled to hit the ball hard when he first came up in 2017.
For 2018, the Major League Baseball average Exit Velocity is 87.3 mph. Rosario only recorded an average of 84.3 mph during his initial cup of coffee last season. In 2018, Rosario has been able to raise this number to 87.4 mph.
In a stat quoted in “Rosario’s breakout may just be getting started” by Mike Petriello, the value of hitting the ball hard is explored.
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“So far this year, the Majors are hitting .523 with a 1.044 slugging percentage at 95 mph or more of exit velocity, and just .220 with a .259 slugging below it”
Results from harder hits can definitely be seen as Rosario’s average and slugging percentage have climbed over his recent 29 game hot streak.
While Rosario has only barreled 3.9% of his batted balls in 2018, this is still a major improvement from his meager 2.6% in 2017. He still has a long way to go as the MLB average for barrel percentage is 6.1%, but we should see Rosario’s numbers continue to climb as he has seemed to turn the page on his slow start.
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We have all seen Amed Rosario’s blazing speed and fielding abilities. If he is able to continue improving his bat, the New York Mets could have a major weapon on their hands for 2019 and beyond.