Luis Severino, New York Yankees
Old-school stats: 17-6, 3.32 ERA in 28 starts, 171 innings
New-school stats: 4.4 WAR
The case for Severino: With 17 wins, Severino shares the American League lead and has a good chance to reach 20. His 199 strikeouts ranks 5th in the league. Ahead in the count, he’s nails, allowing just a .174 batting average. Don’t even think about getting to Severino prior to the fifth inning; in the first four, opponents are batting .211 with just 9 home runs. In Fielding Independent Pitching, Severino ranks fifth at 3.06, demonstrating that as long as he’s in the game, he controls it.
The case against Severino: Through July 7, Severino was 14-2; since then he’s 5-4 with losses to the Royals, Mets and Rays. Lately he’s become a “five and fly” guy, having been knocked out prior to the end of the sixth inning in 8 of his last 10 starts. When batters have count leverage, they’re hitting .309 against Severino. In-game stamina is also an issue. From pitch 76 on, opponents are batting .323 against him. Finally, Severino’s success or lack of same correlates with his run support. When the Yanks give him two or fewer runs, the batting average against him is a subpar .279.