Homer Bailey’s historically bad 2018 season

Finally able to be on the mound for some time, the Cincinnati Reds can’t be exactly thrilled with what they’ve seen from their “big money” pitcher

When Homer Bailey signed a six-year, $105 million contract in February of 204 – the second-largest deal in Reds’ history – the idea was straightforward. “Homer will … anchor that rotation and take us hopefully to championships,” then Cincinnati Reds GM Walt Jocketty declared.

Five seasons into that contract, the Cincinnati Reds have no championships and not much else to show for their outlay. Hampered both by injuries and performance failures, Bailey has made just 68 starts and worked just 372 innings, compiling an 18-31 record.

This season, his healthiest, has also been by far his worst. He’s 1-13 with a 6.13 ERA in 19 starts, and the only thing keeping him in the Cincinnati rotation is probably the $23 million the Reds still owe him for 2019.

The numbers reflect how far Bailey has fallen from the ace Jocketty projected him to be. Left-handers are batting .307 against him, and righties are doing even better, .319. Three-hole hitters are absolutely feasting on Bailey, generating a combined slash line of .415/.456/.755. In two-strike situations, major league hitters as a group average about .200; against Bailey, they’re hitting 50 points better.

Opponents getting a third shot at Bailey are hitting .386. But of course Bailey hasn’t seen many hitters for a third time. Only three of his 19 starts have gone beyond the sixth inning. That’s because he’s been in trouble virtually from the start. On his first through 25^th pitches this season, opponents are hitting .333 against Bailey.

It all adds up to a -1.7 WAR alongside that 1-13 record and 6.13 ERA, putting Bailey on course for one of the worst pitching seasons in baseball history. How bad? Compare his performance to some of the most forgettable in history, keeping in mind, of course, that none of the following guys was earning anything close to the $21 million Bailey is pulling down this year.

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Jose Lima, 2005 Kansas City Royals: Lima was a 32-year-old veteran who had gone 13-5 the previous season for Los Angeles, prompting him to sign a $2.5 million free agent deal with the Royals. He went 5-16 with a 6.99 ERA in a tortuous 32 starts, allowing a league-high 131 earned runs and a 1.66 WHIP in 169 innings of what passed for work. Naturally the Royals finished last in their division at 56-106.
Eric Milton, 2005 Cincinnati Reds: Milton signed for $5.33 million with the Reds after enjoying a 14-6 2004 campaign with the Phillies. In Cincy, his 34 starts resulted in an 8-15 record and 6.47 ERA. Why? The 40 home runs he allowed in 186 innings had something to do with it. Milton’s WAR was -1.9.
Jim Deshaies, 1994 Minnesota Twins: When Deshaies signed with the Twins, it was obvious that his best days were behind him, but nobody knew how far behind. In that strike-shortened season, Deshaies made a league-leading 25 starts despite a 6-12 record and astounding 7.39 earned run average. In 130 innings he gave up 107 earned runs and 30 home runs on the way to compiling a 1.719 WHIP. Deshaies made two equally bad appearances for Philadelphia in 1995 before hanging it up.
Matt Keough, 1982 Oakland ‘s: When experts verbally beat up Billy Martin for his handling of the 1980 A’s pitching staff, Keough is exhibit A. In 1980 and 1981 he completed 30 of his 52 starts, working 343 innings. In 1982 Martin used Keough for 34 more starts and 209 innings. But Keough allowed a league-leading 18 losses, and his ERA climbed from 3.40 in 1981 to 5.72 in 1982. His WAR, 3.3 in 1980, fell to -1.7 in 1982. Keough was never his pitching self again.
Charlie Bishop, 1953 Philadelphia Athletics: Bishop was a veteran minor-leaguer when Connie Mack gave him his first big league opportunity in 1952. He was 28 at the time. One year later Bishop inherited a starting role with Mack’s seventh place club. In 20 starts and 19 relief appearances, he went 3-14 with a 5.66 ERA over 161 innings. It was Bishop’s only full big-league season.
Sid Hudson, 1948 Washington Senators: Aside for time out for wartime service, Hudson had been a centerpiece of Washington’s rotation since 1940. He made 29 starts in 1948, but managed only four wins against 16 losses for a seventh place team. Hudson allowed 217 hits in 182 innings, running a 1.78 WHIP and a -1.1 WAR.
Chief Hogsett, 1937 St. Louis Browns: The Browns finished 46-108 in 1937, and Hogsett was a large part of the reason why. He made 27 starts and worked 177 innings, allowing 245 base hits and tossing 75 bases on balls atop the pyre. The result was a 6-19 record and 6.29 earned run average. Hogsett may be the only pitcher in history to work more than 175 innings in a season with a WHIP above 2.0.
Jack Knott, 1936 St. Louis Browns: If Hogsett wasn’t the worst pitcher in baseball in the 1930s, then his teammate, Knott, probably was. In 1936 he made 23 starts with a 9-17 record and astonishing 7.29 earned run average. Knott faced 943 batters in 1936 and allowed 365 of them – that’s 39 percent – to reach base.
Pat Caraway, 1931 Chicago White Sox: The early 1930s were the period of the most prolific offenses in baseball at least until the steroid era. But even that doesn’t fully explain Caraway’s performance. In 1931 he went 10-24 in 32 starts and 19 relief appearances, pitching 220 innings to the tune of a 6.22 earned run average. Caraway led the league in two categories: losses and earned runs allowed (152).
Jimmy Ring, 1928 Philadelphia Phillies: Ring was a veteran of more than a decade of major league ball, but he was essentially finished by 1928. That didn’t stop the Phillies from giving him 25 starts. Ring responded with a 4-17 record and a 6.44 ERA in 176 innings.

While the Cincinnati Reds certainly weren’t signing up for history when they put forth Homer Bailey’s contract, they’ve seemingly gotten it – in a very bad way.