NL Manager of the Year: Breaking down the ballot
The NL Manager of the Year voting is wide open and likely to remain so until season’s end.
There are a half dozen plausible candidates for the NL Manager of the Year award,, and the chances of almost all of them probably hinge on whether their teams qualify for post-season play. That’s a reflection both of the closeness of the National League races and also of the surprising nature of some of the teams in contention for those spots.
There is no specific criteria for Manager of the Year; the decision is left entirely up to voters. Often the manager of a team with a lesser record but also lesser expectations will finish ahead of the manager of a team that was expected to do well and did.
That’s one reason why Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts, the 2016 award winner, is not considered among the front-runners this season. Roberts’ Dodgers are solidly in contention for a repeat NL West title, but their 76-64 record is underwhelming for a team expected to all but formally have the division wrapped up by now. Instead the Dodgers entered Thursday play a game and a half behind Colorado in the NL West and two games behind St. Louis in the wild card race.
Torey Lovullo, the 2017 selectee, is in the same boat, at least of this moment. If the Diamondbacks rip through the final three weeks and fight their way into post-season play, Lovullo might be a repeat winner. As of now, however, the D-Backs are a half game behind the Dodgers and fading, having lost five of their last six games.
The six managers who received votes last year were Lovullo, Roberts, Colorado ‘s Bud Black, Milwaukee’s Craig Counsell, Washington’s Dusty Baker, and Chicago’s Joe Maddon.
Here’s a look at the top contenders as the end of the 2018 season approaches:
Bud Black, Colorado Rockies. In his first season on the Colorado bench, Black finished fourth last year while leading the Rockies to an 87-75 record and the second NL wild card ticket. The Rockies are on pace to better that performance in 2018, standing at 77-62 entering Thursday’s play and leading the NL West.
Like many candidates for this award, Black’s hopes probably rise or fall depending on what happens from here on out. The Rockies’ final 23 games include seven with the Diamondbacks and six with the Dodgers, so they essentially control their own destiny.
Black came to Colorado following nine seasons at the helm of the San Diego Padres, where his best season, 2010, produced a 90-72 record and runner-up finish to the eventual World Series champion Giants. He was released a third of the way into the 2015 season.
In the one measurable “stat” applicable to a manager – challenges won – Black is batting .565, having won 48 of 85 to date. Colorado’s roster has largely avoided crippling injuries in 2018, so Black’s major challenge has been the perennial one in Colorado, managing the pitching staff in a mile-high environment. In that sense, Black can already be judged a success. Colorado ranks only 13th in the NL in earned run average (4.53) but a more presentable ninth in WHIP (1.381), and fifth in ERA+. To nobody’s surprise, they lead the NL in both batting average and on base average. Overall, that’s an acceptable if not sensational statistical profile in Denver.
Craig Counsell, Milwaukee Brewers.
Counsell is in his fourth season managing the Brewers, who as of this moment lead the NL wild card race. Milwaukee, which finished 86-76 a year ago, is on a 91-win pace this season.
Counsell came to Milwaukee in mid-season 2015 and maneuvered the Brewers into contention in 2017 before finishing six games behind the division-champion Cubs and one game behind the Rockies.
The Brewers’ 2018 challenge has been even more serious. Fortified by the additions of outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich, they led the NL Central for much of the season’s first half before being overtaken by the Cubs.
The Brewers can still catch the Cubs for a division title, trailing them by four games and visiting Chicago for a crucial three-game series starting Sept. 10. They also travel to St. Louis for three games in the season’s final week, but otherwise face a relatively easy schedule that includes series against the Giants, Pirates, Reds, Pirates again and Tigers.
The Brewers are batting .253 on the season, slightly better than the league average of .248. At .421, they rank fifth in slugging. Like most teams, the Brewers have had to work around injuries, most notably to starting pitcher Jimmy Nelson. Recovering from a shoulder injury suffered while running the bases last September, Nelson is not expected to pitch this season.
To the extent one places value on a manager’s performance in challenges, Counsell’s candidacy could be in jeopardy. The Brewers have only a 39 percent success rate overturning calls, the worst of any manager under consideration for the award.
Gabe Kapler, Philadelphia Phillies.
A devotee of new-school managerial techniques, Kapler found himself in hot water with critics from the season’s start. On opening day, he pulled ace Aaron Nola in the fifth inning of a game against the Braves that the Phillies led 5-0. At the time, Nola had allowed just three hits. The Braves rallied against the Phils’ pen for an 8-5 victory.
Kapler stuck to his strategical guns and the Phils have hung in the midst of what has become a two-way fight for the NL East title. They led from just before the All Star break into mid-August, and have not been as much as five games out all season.
Kapler is in his rookie season as a field boss, having retired from active play in 2010. Since then he has handled front office or minor league assignments for the Dodgers, Rays and Red Sox. His managerial style has been to treat challenges of calls as personal affronts to the umpires, issuing just 39 of them all season. For the record he’s won 26, 67 percent. To the extent such things can be credited to the manager, the stats favor Kapler’s candidacy. The Phillies have been outscored by seven runs this season, suggesting they ought to be playing about a game below .500 rather than the 73-66 record they actually possess.
Kapler’s chances for the award probably hinge on whether the Phillies actually reach post-season, either by catching the Braves for the NL East – they’re three back at present, or a wild card slot, which they trail by four and a half. Seven of their final 11 games are against the Braves, so if nothing else the Phillies are likely to hold their and their manager’s fates in their own hands.
Joe Maddon, Chicago Cubs.
Maddon won the award during his first season in Chicago, 2015, when he took the Cubs to the NLCS. He did not win it in 2016 when the Cubs won the World Series, a testament to the increased expectations surrounding the Cubs that season. The Cubs entered play Thursday leading the NL Central by four games and possessing the National League’s best record…although being chased by the teams with the second and third best records, the Brewers and Cardinals.
Maddon represents a default choice in this category, and not merely because his team has the league’s best record. He won it two times in Tampa Bay before coming to the Cubs, including in 2008 when he took the Rays to the World Series.
Because the Cubs were expected to basically do what they have done, Maddon’s chances rise or fall with the viability of other options. If the Dodgers win the NL West and neither the Braves nor Phillies pull away in the NL East, his odds improve. If the Brewers, Cardinals, Rockies, Diamondbacks, Braves or Phillies close with a rush — and at least one of them is almost certain to do so – his chances may be diminished.
Maddon does get credit for holding the Cubs together against a fairly constant onslaught of injuries. Those included the loss for most of the season of Yu Darvish, the loss for the season’s second half of closer Brandon Morrow, and the loss for a month of star third baseman Kris Bryant.
The Cubs’ manager is as aggressive as any at challenging umpires calls. He has filed 174 of them this year – about 1.3 per game – and won just over half.
Mike Shildt, St. Louis Cardinals.
Is it possible to win Manager of the Year on half a season? We may be about to find out.
When Mike Matheny was released just before the All Star break, Shildt – who had been Matheny’s bench coach — was named interim Cardinal manager. That status that has since been made permanent. The case for Shildt is as straightforward as the team’s record, 47-46 when he took over, 31-16 since then.
Shildt has worked his way through the Cardinals organization for most of the past two decades, giving him an intimate familiarity with virtually every player who came up through the St. Louis system.
Shildt’s biggest accomplishment has probably been to motivate the Cardinals to overcome a host of injuries, notably to their pitching staff. Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha have both missed most of the season, but Shildt has called on rookies John Gant and Austin Gomber to pick up the load.
If St. Louis holds and improves on its current status as the second wild card, Shildt’s award prospects could rise dramatically, given the team’s lackluster performance prior to his appointment. The Cardinals face a challenging closing schedule that includes series with the contending Dodgers, Braves, Brewers and Cubs. Those final three games, in Wrigley Field on the season’s final weekend, could be decisive either in the NL Central or the Cardinals’ wild card hopes.
Like Kapler, Shildt has been almost miserly in his challenges to umpires’ calls, filing only nine of them. That’s about one per week. For what it’s worth, he’s won three of them.
Brian Snitker, Atlanta Braves.
In his third season with the Braves, Snitker has presided over his team’s steady rise to the top of the NL East standings. Last with just 59 victories following his appointment in May of 2016, the Braves rose to third with 72 wins in 2017, and are on pace to win 89 games and the division this year.
Even moreso than Shildt in St. Louis, Snitker is a franchise lifer. He started in the Braves organization as a minor league catching prospect in the 1970s and took on varying tasks, managing at almost every level of the Braves’ system. He was Atlanta’s third base coach for seven seasons.
As manager, he has nurtured an offensive-dominant approach. His Braves are second in the league in batting average (.259), and third in slugging (.423). Of his 73 umpire challenges, he has won 33, 45 percent.
Next. Who makes the NL postseason?. dark
As with several of the other candidates, Snitker’s award chances would be greatly enhanced if his team actually wins the NL East or at minimum qualifies for the wild card game. To do that they will have to work through a challenging final 23 games that includes the previously mentioned seven with Philadelphia plus three with St. Louis and four with Arizona.