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Colorado Rockies: Don’t let Charlie Blackmon’s WAR fool you

By Richard Heaton

DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 10: Charlie Blackmon (19) of the Colorado Rockies prepares to bat during the bottom of the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field on Monday, September 10, 2018. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post via Getty Images)
DENVER, CO - SEPTEMBER 10: Charlie Blackmon (19) of the Colorado Rockies prepares to bat during the bottom of the first inning against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Coors Field on Monday, September 10, 2018. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post via Getty Images) /
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Some fans use Wins Above Replacement to show a players value. When it comes to Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon, that might not be the best idea.

Take a look at how Charlie Blackmon performed over the last few seasons in regards to WAR. In 2017, his overall WAR was 6, which was by far the highest total of his career and one of the best among all Colorado Rockies players. In 2016 his WAR stood at 4.5. Those are good totals, but then you look at what he’s been doing this season and you begin to question everything.

With just a few weeks left in the 2018 season, his WAR is standing at just 0.1, which is terrible. Even so, you shouldn’t let that number trick you into thinking that Blackmon is a bad player, because this year he’s really as good as he’s ever been.

Entering Monday, he led the National League with 104 runs, this is the third consecutive year in which he’s scored more than 100 times. His power display is still as good as ever as he’s already hit 26 home runs and looks like he might be able to crack 30 homers by the end of the year.

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The only problem that Blackmon is having when it comes to hitting is his average. So far, he’s hitting .282. Last season he hit .331 and he hit .324 the year before. The roughly 50 point drop does warrant a red flag, but should not be enough to kill his WAR.

If you look at his stats more closely, you start to realize that his drop in WAR is mainly due to his defense. His Offensive WAR is just fine and sits at 3.1. It’s still nowhere near what it was in the past, but it’s still a solid number. In 2017, his Offensive WAR was 6.5 and the year before, it was 4.8.

3.1 is good but the reason his overall WAR is so low is because of a mind-boggling -2.6 Defensive WAR, which is the lowest of his career. It’s the only time in his career that he’s had a Defensive WAR below -1. It’s the first time since 2013 that he had a Defensive WAR below -0.5.

But why is it so bad? He’s actually a better defender this year than he was in the past. In 2016 his fielding percentage was .990 and in 2017 it was .988. So far in 2018 he’s made just one error and his fielding percentage stands at .996.

The only thing that really hurts Blackmon as a defender is Defensive Runs Saved. Right now his DRS is -27. Entering 2018, his worst total for a full season was -7. But in all seriousness, that should not have such a huge effect on how good of a player overall.

So what if a few extra runs were scored by the opposing team as a result of Blackmon’s skills? He’s still one of the best hitters in baseball. He could probably finish the season hitting above .280 with 30 home runs and 100 runs scored, which is definitely deserving of a much higher overall WAR than what he has now.

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So if you don’t think Blackmon is a good player because his WAR says so, you need to do a little digging into his stats.

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